Mainline Pilot Manning

[USA320Pilot]

At today’s MEC meeting Bid Closing Committee Chairman Bruce Beighlie addressed the MEC. Beigle told a MEC member that if the pilot groups authorizes an increase in the pay cap to 95 hours per month, with the planned increase aircraft utilization and maintaining the current fleet size (the Transformation Plan will increase the fleet size to 320 jets), the company would require a minimum of 3,000 line pilot positions.

As of today, US Airways has 3,076 line pilot positions and there will be approximately 50-75 positions eliminated (not furloughs) due to attrition (LOA, retirement, medical, etc) before the end of the year.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[ClueByFour]

It sure seems to me like the financing for the extra airbus aircraft won't happen overnight.

I'm assuming that the work rule changes will.

Somebody is gonna be out in the cold for awhile in that interim period, or so it would seem.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Clue,

A slight correction to the numbers. The 3076 is as of the bid effective August 1, 2004. This includes attrition known at the time of the bid award - May 2, 2004. Obviously this includes age 60 retirements, but does not include any pilots going on or coming from medical disability, leave of absense, etc after the bid was awarded.

I have been told by an informed source (I hate to not give the source, but while I wasn't told the info was subject to confidentially agreements it could well be) that the company projects it taking 4 years to go from the current utilization of just over 10 hours to 11.8 hours.

As for new aircraft, the Q&A (posted in a seperate thread) indicates that once a competitive cost structure is achieved the financing could become available for additional planes.

So basically it appears you are right - the increased flying cap would result in excess pilots for some period of time. It would just be a question of whether ALPA wanted to give extra concessions to "pay for" them to stay active or not.

Jim

 

[diogenes]

that the company projects it taking 4 years to go from the current utilization of just over 10 hours to 11.8 hours.

Wow, that's fast!

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

At today’s MEC meeting Bid Closing Committee Chairman Bruce Beighlie addressed the MEC. Beigle told a MEC member that if the pilot groups authorizes an increase in the pay cap to 95 hours per month, with the planned increase aircraft utilization and maintaining the current fleet size (the Transformation Plan will increase the fleet size to 320 jets), the company would require a minimum of 3,000 line pilot positions.

As of today, US Airways has 3,076 line pilot positions and there will be approximately 50-75 positions eliminated (not furloughs) due to attrition (LOA, retirement, medical, etc) before the end of the year.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

Well gee could this be why USA320Pilot is so willing to sellout all the other groups?

Is USA320Pilot saying vote yes or quit so he can keep his job and pay and just work a few more hours a month?

And he says the Pilot group is not going carry the rest of the labor groups, well thats a joke.

Just_Vote_No

 

[mwereplanes]

If the pilots accept 95+ hours as suggested on the ALPA powerpoint presentation there will be furloughs. That, regardless of what the anyone says, will be inevitable. 320 just might be sitting in the right seat after all this pilot "negotiating" is finished. The only way furloughs would not occur is if U put more mainline jets into service. And with the scope we have given up, and are about to give up, those jets will be going to MDA or other affiliates.

You are going to get what you hope for 320. The pilots will cave because they are scared to death of having to work in the real world. And when that cave occurs, I will look forward to having your assistance as my First Officer. I'm quite certain you will do a fine job.

mr

 

[BoeingBoy]

I thought I'd dig out the last pilot base bid and do a little research on retirements. Here's the numbers I came up with. Keep in mind the following:

All are based on age 60 retirement.

The pilots shown as furloughed will not change unless there is a recall.

The pilots shown as on disability were in that status as of the bid closing in early May. Since pilots go on or return from disability these numbers change. Generally speaking, a pilot returning from disability will return to a line position while a pilot going on disability could come from either supervisory or line.

The pilots shown as supervisory were in that status as of the bid closing also. Like disability, pilots move to and from supervisory positions.

The pilots shown as line are those pilots that held an awarded position (base, a/c, seat) on the August bid.

In effect, the total number of age 60 retirements will not change. What could change is the "pot" they come from. Obviously, retirements among the furloughed group will not affect the staffing of the airline.

2004 after August:
2 Furloughed
5 Disability
3 Supervisory
35 Line

2005:
17 Furloughed
19 Disability
4 Supervisory
105 Line

2006:
16 Furloughed
37 Disability
6 Supervisory
162 Line

Jim

 

[mwereplanes]

Jim:

I'm tellin ya there will be a large furlough if we agree to fly over 95. Whether that is good or bad is arguable but there is no way to not put more guys on the beach if we increase our productivity by 10% or more. They cannot fly the current number of jets more hours quickly enough to make a difference.

I am all for being more productive. And maybe we need to get the pilot head count lower. Do you know the ratio of pilots to aircraft at JetBlue and AirTran? If you can come up with that number you will see that what I am saying will come to pass. Because that is exactly what the number here at U will be.

Unless they put more mainline jets into operation, we will layoff more pilots when we start flying to 95+. IMHO.

mr

 

[BoeingBoy]

mwereplanes,

I don't disagree with you at all and personally I say no to upping the cap. Recalling pilots & f/a's will not significantly affect the impact on overall CASM that the extra flying (if it materializes) has.

Jim

 

[BoeingBoy]

To add,

I was just putting out info on how many line pilots would be retiring in the near future. USA320's numbers seemed high - if one just looks at line pilots, which is what matters if you're looking at absorbing the extra productivity without furloughs.

His numbers:

Year Number Cumulative Total
2004 127 127
2005 146 273
2006 216 489

My numbers (line pilots):
2004 35 35
2005 105 140
2006 162 302

Jim

 

[mwereplanes]

Jim:

300 is the realistic number. And that will take about 18 months to happen. And I expect to see over 500 furloughs from going to 95 hours.

Trust me, this group will cave. And with that caving you will see yet more scope given away and any new jets that come here that are not wide body will be going to MDA or an affiliate. Namely, the EMB 190. Why fly an Airbus 319 if you can get 90 seaters to an affiliate with no overhead?

I can only hope the RC4 and the new negotiating committee will be able to convince the cowards that we must have ample returns for what we give up. To allow more concessions without any return will indeed put 320 into an F/O seat and many more of our own out of a seat.

mr

 

[BoeingBoy]

To put the age of the pilot group in perspective, here are the number of active pilots in various age ranges as of 12/31/04. Active means on the seniority list but not furloughed, retired, deceased, or have resigned.

55 & up 1031
50-54 1244
45-49 1001
40-44 346
under 40 1

 

[Furloughedagain]

Those numbers are interesting. Looks like if the airline survives 10 years the company will need all of the furloughees back and then some... assuming of course they maintain around 3000 total pilots.

Still a far cry from the 6076 total pilots that were on the list prior to the UAL merger.

That is difficult to fathom... going from 6000+ to less than 3000 and perhaps 2500...

When you vote, please try and picture in your minds eye 3000+ pilots walking to the chief pilots office, dropping off their manuals, ID, and wings and walking out with his head down.

Three THOUSAND.

 

[28yrsnojob]

:down: pilots dont care they will layoff all their young .they will work200 hrs a month to keep their pay intact.

 

[TheLarkAscending]

:down: pilots dont care they will layoff all their young .they will work200 hrs a month to keep their pay intact.

Young? There are no true "young" pilots remaining on the active seniority list; refer back to the breakdown Jim posted. The whole shebang is extremely sad.