Is there discontent at US business partner UA?

C

chipmunn

Guest
Is United Airlines making progress to emerge from bankruptcy or is there controversy in the Elk Grove Township headquarters?

This week there have been curious reports regarding United Airlines and its formal restructuring, which presents incongruent arguments on whether or not the Chicago-based airline is making progress in its efforts to emerge from bankruptcy.

On May 17 the New York Times published an article titled “United Insists It Is Acting on Financingâ€, which said executives involved in United's efforts said, that the search for financing was in only the most preliminary stages and that it could take months. They said the airline had not settled on its revamped structure nor provided much information about the low-fare operation that is the centerpiece of its plan.

Interestingly, the Times reported Texas Pacific Group is not talking with United about bankruptcy exit financing.

Then on May 20 Dow Jones reported the unsecured creditors committee in UAL Corp.'s bankruptcy case here filed an objection to the company's request to change the terms of a retention agreement with consulting firm McKinsey & Co.

McKinsey was hired by the carrier to provide a number of services including the development of a turnaround plan. Reports indicate this plan includes the pre-bankruptcy reduction of 30 to 35 percent of its ASM’s and the implementation of the Low Cost Operator.

According to court documents made available on May 20, the committee said it so far hasn't been able to talk to McKinsey's professionals or been given any information about the nature of work the firm is currently doing for UAL, parent of United Airlines.

In addition, the bankruptcy filing said, “The committee requires access to McKinsey directly without (UAL) acting as a filter to review the reports and analysis which McKinsey has generated. Without such information, the committee is not only unable to fulfill its own obligations to (UAL's) creditors but also cannot determine if the proposed services are duplicative of (UAL's) numerous other retained professionals.

Seprately, on May 22 Crain’s Business News reported United is seeking an emergency court order to prevent Atlantic Coast Airlines Inc. from bailing out of its contract as a United Express carrier on Saturday. On an emergency motion filed Wednesday, United went to Bankruptcy Court Thursday morning seeking a temporary restraining order to prevent Atlantic Coast from unilaterally terminating its contract as of May 24, according to a spokesman for UAL Corp., United's Elk Grove Township-based parent.

Curiously, the Wall Street Journal reported on May 21 UAL Corp. is considering emerging from bankruptcy-court protection as early as this fall.

Reports indicate chief financial officer Jake Brace held a conference call and said United would meet its April and May debtor-in-possession financing revenue and cash flow targets, likely due to receiving $300 million in federal aid last Friday. Brace told reporters “we see no impediments to an early exit†and the airline is making more progress than expected in lowering its costs.

However, if UAL truly had no impediments to an early bankruptcy exit than why would its unsecured creditors committee have filed a motion with the bankruptcy court to access to McKinsey directly without UAL acting as a filter to review the reports and analysis which McKinsey has generated?

Does it seem a little suspect the unsecured creditors committee, who hold significant power over UAL’s formal reorganization, feel compelled to ask the court to force the airline to provide this information? If UAL had nothing to hide, why would its creditors, who will vote on the Plan of Reorganization (POR) and Disclosure Statement, be at odds with the airline and its consultants?

Moreover, why did the New York Times say the carrier has not decided on its revamped structure nor provided much information about the low-fare operation? Could this be why the creditors committee is concerned and why airline turnaround specialist Texas Pacific Group is not interested in being UAL’s equity plan sponsor?

Does it seem odd that Brace would contact the press to tell the news media the airline may emerge from bankruptcy early, suggesting the reorganization is proceeding ahead of schedule, one day after the creditors committee filed a motion to force the airline to provide the creditors with the reports and analysis generated by McKinsey?

Also noteworthy, if UAL truly had a dramatic turnaround why is Atlantic Coast Airlines (ACAI) defecting from United Express if UAL’s reorganization was proceeding ahead of schedule? Furthermore, UAL and ACAI have a mutually dependent business relationship and why does ACAI believe it would be better of without the Chicago-based airline?

In my opinion, Brace’s conference call is suspect and there are a number of conflicting reports that indicate there is disagreement between key bankruptcy parties, UAL is far from exiting bankruptcy, and the airline's future is far from certain.

Best regards,

Chip
 
Hey there, Chip, old friend. I see it didn't take you long to start raising questions about UA's viability again. What's the matter? Did you run out of things at USAir to complain about, so you need to attack UAL again? Or are you just still sore that your secret corporate transactions didn't come true? Maybe you would like to see our BK drag out longer in a hope that US can come up with yet ANOTHER transaction to buy you a 777 seat? Or are you still upset over the summer of 2000?

"UAL is far from exiting bankruptcy, and the airline's future is far from certain." Honestly Chip, do you expect anyone to believe that you of all people have any credible information about United Airlines?

Incase you haven't noticed, there has been a lot of GOOD news around about UAL. A majority of news articles have been positive. (Which in my opinion is long over due.) So please go rain on someone else's parade. This obsession you have with UAL is pretty sad. Obviously your vacation from USaviation hasn't changed your attitude.
 
FYI, United''s stock has been going up like crazy the past week or so, nearing 2.00 a share after being on either side of a buck for quite a while.What this implies is anyone''s guess?!?!!?!?
 
so is it an unique corporate transaction or an interesting corporate transaction this time?
 
Chip is right to raise questions. The spin machine at UAL has been working overtime at UAL lately. UAL will make the April and May goals thanks to the government aid, just as they made the 1st qtr goals largely due to the government payout of over 300 mil (and easy goals). It is instructive to note that analysts have been cutting loss estimates for all airlines except UAL, and are raising loss estimates for UAL.
 
Chip,

Why do you think UAL is deliberatly misleading the public? Do you honestly believe that the situation is so bad at United that management is lying in a desperate attempt to maintain bookings when - in reality- the company is close to chap 7? You really think Glen is pulling an Enron? Even if your insinuation were true, management would not put out positive news.

Your implication is not even close to being logical. The facts you use to support your opinions - i.e. ACA managenent thinks ACA would be better off without UAL or that Texas pacific group is not involved in the exit plan or the lack of a LCC brand etc - do not support your argument.( and I''m choosing the best you had to offer ) Surely you can see that.

1. ACA and UAL are involved in hardball discussions. United is also in discussions with other feed providers including the aaa feeders. You must know that.

2. Texas Pacific...come on. Your statement doesn''t even merit a response. It certainly does not prove that the United brand is not a good investment. Goodness, costs are going to be reduced by 5B a year - a billion more than targeted. How much did United loose in the worst year since 9-11 ? What was the worst revenue year? What is the current cash flow picture? ( you can''t know the latter) Could it be that somebody else is going to provide the cash and the exit may even coincide with a merger? hmmm...a much more likely assumption.

3.LCC plan specifics... It is highly unlikely that the LCC will be marketed as a seperate brand. It was mainly a negotiating tool used by management. The work rules and pay are up and functioning. The entire narow body fleet is already a LCC. What would be the advantage of going to the expense of marketing a seperate product?

I could attack the prospects of an independant aaa. However I believe the chap 11 process at both carriers was designed to create an overall system that will intergrate, so for me to point out the obvous, intractable casm problems at aaa wouldn''t make very much sense. You didn''t come out of chap 11 because your problems were solved in the sense that you can survive long term as is;so I wouldn''t let hubris cloud my judgement if I were you.

Both United and aaa are and always have been destined to survive and our fates are likely to be inextricably tied.

Todd, United pilot.
 
Chip:

At this point, UAL has yet to craft a business plan to allow for an ONTIME exit from Chapter 11, let alone an early reemergence. The bottom line is that for all of the hoopla, UAL is no better suited to emerge from BK as a VIABLE enterprise today than it was on the date of the filing.

IMHO, Brace did a real disservice to UAL''s employees by misleading them into thinking that re-emergence is right around the corner...
 
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On 5/23/2003 12:30:37 PM Light Years wrote:

Who or what is aaa?

----------------​

I think the writer is referring to U formerly known as aaa(All American Airlines)? I don''t know why or understand the lower case. To each his own.
 
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On 5/23/2003 10:59:05 AM avek00 wrote:

Chip:

At this point, UAL has yet to craft a business plan to allow for an ONTIME exit from Chapter 11, let alone an early reemergence. The bottom line is that for all of the hoopla, UAL is no better suited to emerge from BK as a VIABLE enterprise today than it was on the date of the filing.

IMHO, Brace did a real disservice to UAL''s employees by misleading them into thinking that re-emergence is right around the corner...

----------------​

How in the world are you in a position to know this ?

I''ll tell you the managements secret plan...

Step 1. lower costs by just under 5 billion a year, mostly on the backs of employees.

step 2. Take credit and rake in millions for engineering a stunning turn around.

Our CASM will be around 8 cents. Its a very simple equation that would work even with no revenue enhancement at all. Of course there has and will be an effort to increase revenues. ( code shares, SJ''s, insane productivity enhancements etc.)

Ok, I''ve given a hard fact to support my position. Why don''t you do the same?

You have predicted that with a CASM of 8 cents ual will not survive. When do you think we will file chap 7 ?

Its obvious to me you and Chip want ual to fail. Its not going to happen.


Todd

PS. Just 1 more example...I don''t know what our A/C leases will end up looking like. However I have heard that our 400''s are going from 1 million a month to less than $400,000. The company has cancelled bumps off this A/C, is bringing them out of the desert, and I understand there will soon be a vacancy bid.
 
Not that I doubt it, but a CASM of 8 cents a mile is impressive indeed. Where did this number get derived from?
 
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On 5/23/2003 2:33:27 PM Todd@ual wrote:


----------------
On 5/23/2003 10:59:05 AM avek00 wrote:

Chip:

At this point, UAL has yet to craft a business plan to allow for an ONTIME exit from Chapter 11, let alone an early reemergence. The bottom line is that for all of the hoopla, UAL is no better suited to emerge from BK as a VIABLE enterprise today than it was on the date of the filing.

IMHO, Brace did a real disservice to UAL''s employees by misleading them into thinking that re-emergence is right around the corner...

----------------​

How in the world are you in a position to know this ?

I''ll tell you the managements secret plan...

Step 1. lower costs by just under 5 billion a year, mostly on the backs of employees.

step 2. Take credit and rake in millions for engineering a stunning turn around.

Our CASM will be around 8 cents. Its a very simple equation that would work even with no revenue enhancement at all. Of course there has and will be an effort to increase revenues. ( code shares, SJ''s, insane productivity enhancements etc.)

Ok, I''ve given a hard fact to support my position. Why don''t you do the same?

You have predicted that with a CASM of 8 cents ual will not survive. When do you think we will file chap 7 ?

Its obvious to me you and Chip want ual to fail. Its not going to happen.


Todd

PS. Just 1 more example...I don''t know what our A/C leases will end up looking like. However I have heard that our 400''s are going from 1 million a month to less than $400,000. The company has cancelled bumps off this A/C, is bringing them out of the desert, and I understand there will soon be a vacancy bid.

----------------​
Todd,

I happen to agree with you. I believe that all of this is about taking billions and billions of cost reductions out of labor contracts...as well as, vendors and lessors. This is the plan and only plan. As I have stated many times over, United will definitely emerge from BK (NO liquidation city) just always the threat of liquidation in order to get more and more while they sit in BK. And all the airlines will use the same "trump cards"..why? Cause they can and labor will comply. Funny, Southwest who has not purposely burned up their cash in order to justify BK, continue today to do well in this same environment, make profits without gov. assistance and BK or labor consessions. Why again? Cause they don''t need to. They have management that know how to run a business in any environment.
 
Cost Per Available Seat Mile

Airline 3/31/03 3/31/02 %Change

JetBlue 6.25 6.81 -0.08
ATA 7.04 7.44 -0.05
Southwest 7.5 7.31 0.03
America West 8.19 8.82 -0.07
AirTran 8.63 9.02 -0.04
Northwest 10.16 9.66 0.05
Continental 10.25 10.09 0.02
Alaska 10.38 10.1 0.03
Delta 11.11 10.49 0.06
United 11.47 11.41 0.01
US Airways 11.99 12.91 -0.07
American 12.44 11.37 0.09
 
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On 5/23/2003 10:59:05 AM avek00 wrote:

At this point, UAL has yet to craft a business plan to allow for an ONTIME exit from Chapter 11, ----------------​

avek00,

And how on Earth would you know this?? Let me guess. Because Tilton didn't directly e-mail you to inform you of the ins and outs of OUR busisness plan. Right?



Chip,

UA and ACA are in a high stake negotiation. Of course there will be posturing and leaks to the media. You of all people should understand that.

Also, my informed sources tell me that UA is looking at the possibility of buying USAir upon emergence of CH11, as part of the reorganization plan. They will get the $2B loan guarantees, buy US, trim off the remaining fat and most of the narrow body and wide body aircraft. Then they will release ACA from the property, and fly all of those routes with all the RJ's aquired from US. Of course UA ALPA already has a prenuptual agreement drafted, fencing the US pilot group into the RJ's for the next 25 years. This will
protect everyone's career expectations.

I could tell you more, but I'm really not at liberty to dicuss this, and can not reveal my sources for this ultimate corporate transaction. I'm sure you understand.
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