Bob,
One day I really would like to meet and share that "adult beverage" you mentioned in another post somewhere.
That would give me a chance to ask where you acquired your deep understanding of airline operations. Honest, I'm not being sarcastic. It's just that you sometimes come across as having most, if not all the answers.
Sustainable profits is a somewhat amorphus term. To the best of my knowledge, Southwest is the only airline that has been in existence for a long time that has consistently made a profit - seems like I saw the figure of 50 straight quarters, but that could be wrong. Overall, much has occassionally been said about commercial aviation being in the red if looked at over it's entire history.
It has been said that if you discount catastrophic events like 9/11 and average out the good and bad economic times, the difference between profit and loss for the average airline is 1 or 2 passengers per flight. You can do the math yourself if you'd like - 150 seat airplane, average stage length of say 900 miles, average fare of maybe $200. How many passengers would it take to increase RASM by the 0.5 cent difference that U had in the 3rd quarter?
Our costs are too high. But cost is also an amorphus term in the airline business. I could say that our costs are lower than AMR's, or CAL's, or NWA's. Does that mean that we're better off than they are? I could even say that our costs are only about 15% higher than LUV's while our revenues are 14% higher than LUV's. Does that mean that we're in about as well off as they are? What matters is not cost, but CASM. Not revenue, but RASM.
In many other businesses, labor is the largest of a few controllable costs. Not so in the airline business. Many factors affect the real measure of cost - CASM. Nearly all of these factors are directly controlled by management - the rank and file employee has no way to affect them. How else do you explain the 30+% drop in employee cost in two years, but only a 9.5% drop in CASM in the same period.
That's why we are worse off than AMR, CAL, and NWA though we have lower costs. They manage their airlines to produce lower CASM than our management does. That's why LUV is doing so much better in spite of the cost and revenue differences being about the same. Their management has structured that airline so that it has an almost insurmountable advantage in CASM.
Ok, I'm tired of beating this dead horse. Either you'll realize that airlines aren't just another business or you'll continue to believe that we employees are responsible for dragging this airline down with our outrageous demands.
Respectfully,
Jim