Flyi Files Chapter 11

[DCT JVL]

However, IAD is not likely to be without a discount carrier for long - even if Indy folds. There is a market for low fares and UA certainly won't price at Indy fares w/ Indy gone. Other carriers have much lower costs and will go after the market. IAD is one of the very few markets in the NE that has growth potential and excess capacity.

IIRC, the new Virgin America, whenever it gets around to flying, has talked about making IAD a hub.

 

[ringmaruf]

If I understand avek correctly, he's trying to equate FlyI's ridiculously low fares with the "Southwest Effect." When WN moves into a city, it often causes local O&D traffic to grow - sometimes by huge percentages. While that sometimes kills the overpriced legacies in that city, it sometimes actually helps the legacies if they are willing to adapt.

But FlyI's fares didn't stimulate traffic by any appreciable percentage.

They certainly did greatly stimulate demand with their unsustainable fares. Keep in mind that while they didn't necessarily offer a lot of capacity, their markets were often very small to begin with, and carriers like US and UA, who offered much more capacity, matched fares. And US at least, the largest carrier in most of these markets, matched on a slew of connecting markets as well, and not just the WAS local markets.

There's a table at http://www.airportsusa.com/snapshottemplate.htm under the August 22 post showing some of the huge increases in year-to-date traffic at some airports:

IAD +45%
GSP +32%
CHS +30%
CAE +28%
TYS +25%
SWF +23%
PWM +22%

These are all FLYI markets, and they're all *huge* year-over-year increases.

 

[magsau]

"IIRC, the new Virgin America, whenever it gets around to flying, has talked about making IAD a hub."

Virgin America has announced SFO as its hub. It is also recruiting employees from the bay area. www.virginamerica.com

 

[UALDC767]

They certainly did greatly stimulate demand with their unsustainable fares. Keep in mind that while they didn't necessarily offer a lot of capacity, their markets were often very small to begin with, and carriers like US and UA, who offered much more capacity, matched fares. And US at least, the largest carrier in most of these markets, matched on a slew of connecting markets as well, and not just the WAS local markets.

There's a table at http://www.airportsusa.com/snapshottemplate.htm under the August 22 post showing some of the huge increases in year-to-date traffic at some airports:

IAD +45%
GSP +32%
CHS +30%
CAE +28%
TYS +25%
SWF +23%
PWM +22%

These are all FLYI markets, and they're all *huge* year-over-year increases.

While I don't doubt that the cheaper the ticket, the more people are going to fly.....

but how much of those traffic increases can be attributed to FlyI (and UA or US, etc) versus just the ongoing rebound in travel generally across the country?

DC

 

[WorldTraveler]

these increases are far more than the normal increase in traffic. The point, though, is that traffic can be stimulated w/ lower fares but if the airline can't make money, it doesn't matter. However, Indy has provided real world data to the elasticity formulae that airlines use to predict the amount of potential demand in a market. There is no doubt that other low cost carriers will practically apply the statistics developed by Indy. IAD won't be w/o a discount carrier for long.

 

[avek00]

these increases are far more than the normal increase in traffic. The point, though, is that traffic can be stimulated w/ lower fares but if the airline can't make money, it doesn't matter. However, Indy has provided real world data to the elasticity formulae that airlines use to predict the amount of potential demand in a market. There is no doubt that other low cost carriers will practically apply the statistics developed by Indy. IAD won't be w/o a discount carrier for long.

DH was able to generate revenues that a REAL LCC could work with - that said, United has retooled since the DH concept was launched, and any new LCC hub entrant would face stiff competition.