Federal Bailout $$ Billions, for the Airlines, with 'Conditions' ?

[CremaDiLimone]

you are way to optimistic. the federal govt is obligated to aid the states hence the state of emergency across all 50 states. if you think they are obligated to keep all the major airlines running your crazy.

if you can find a post where i said the govt. is obligated to aid the airlines..

i never said that and i certainly know that isn't true.

what i have stated is exactly what powerful people who make decisions in this country have stated.

if i'm crazy, those that reject the real actions (cares act) are delusional..rejecting reality.

what would be crazy is 'loaning' and 'granting' money to the airlines, only to pull the plug on the very industry you tried to save 6 months earlier. that's my argument, along with the airline industry being vital to national security - for the govt. coming up with another package in sept., if necessary.

this is also an election year, that also plays a positive, optimistic factor for the airline industry (votes/jobs/catalyst for economic recovery).

 

[CremaDiLimone]

your dreamin if you think that if it doesnt imrrove in six months everone stays on life support. hopefully it improves but if not choise will be made and aa balance sheet is not the healthiest and management is definetly not the best in the business.

choices will be made? as in, delta gets aid, but not aa??

ok.

 

[Kev3188]

Cuts, consolidation, collapse. All are possible, and no one is immune.

 

[1AA]

has anyone seen what the govt. has proposed in terms of repaying the payroll grants??

paying back 30% of what was given over a span of 5 years.

as of this moment, it looks as though the airline execs wish to negotiate that down. if not, aa will have to pay back 30% of $6 billion. $1.8 billion over 5 years, $350 million a year over 5 years.

very doable.

We will never lose money again. Based on that it's very doable.

 

[dfw gen]

ever

if you can find a post where i said the govt. is obligated to aid the airlines..

i never said that and i certainly know that isn't true.

what i have stated is exactly what powerful people who make decisions in this country have stated.

if i'm crazy, those that reject the real actions (cares act) are delusional..rejecting reality.

what would be crazy is 'loaning' and 'granting' money to the airlines, only to pull the plug on the very industry you tried to save 6 months earlier. that's my argument, along with the airline industry being vital to national security - for the govt. coming up with another package in sept., if necessary.

this is also an election year, that also plays a positive, optimistic factor for the airline industry (votes/jobs/catalyst for economic recovery).

ever hear the expression "trip over a dollar to save a nickel" the government and aa are notorious for that.

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

right, you have no clue what you are arguing. aa is not $45 billion in debt.

You are right I have no clue how much AA is actually in debt.

Then again I doubt you or anyone else on this forum does either.

I pulled that number from an article off the internet doing a debt analysis on American Airlines.

CNN has stated they are $34 billion in debt as of March 11th 2020.

Of course according to WSJ Markets they were in 33.44 Billion dollars in debt as of Dec of 2019.

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/AAL/financials

Here is another analysis written November 10, 2019.

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that American Airlines Group had liabilities of US$19.6b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$41.5b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$5.17b and US$1.85b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$54.0b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

https://simplywall.st/news/is-american-airlines-group-nasdaqaal-a-risky-investment/


Here is yet another analysis that is a bit more positive if you care to read it CremaDiLimone.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4335689-american-airlines-not-dire

So yes you are right I was not totally 100 percent on that 46 billion.

I have had 2 recent deaths in my family within the last 2 months among other distractions (like not even being able to attend my uncles funeral for instance, and the monumental task it took to even send flowers) so I did not vet the information to my usual standards. Usually I don't post information I don't repeatedly verify.

You caught me with my foot in my mouth while I was having an off day. Congrats.

 

[jimntx]

I also have seen this same mish-mash of figures regarding AA's debt load. The reason I have chosen to not post numbers on this topic is I'm beginning to feel that NO ONE has a clue as to AA's debt load. I think that some of the writers are reporting only part of the data--posting a figure that only represents part of the answer--for instance, reporting only secured debt levels as the total debt level. I saw one article that listed that $34 billion figure in one paragraph in a manner to suggest this is the total debt load. The very next paragraph had the phrase "the debt load of $20 billion at AA"

It's beginning to look like that old joke about the business man who needed to hire an accountant. He asked each applicant, "how much is 2+2?" Every candidate answered "4" except the last candidate who was hired. He answered "what would you like it to be?"

 

[swamt]

I think close to 90kish...

Well you guys are showing some great numbers when it comes to the takers of the leave options. Nearly 40% for you all. Hoping our numbers pick up a bit in the next two months. If ya can take it people, take it, (at my airline) as our CEO has said, it will aid in less layoffs, furloughs later if they are needed at all, BUT, will be only a "last result" move if needed.
Thx for the numbers Kev. if I get a total on ours I will update. Take care, be safe and stay healthy all. Any ones life is not worth the risk just to keep showing up for work just because.

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

HA!



I'm assuming it's this one?

http://avherald.com/h?article=4d59e06b&opt=0



They're now offering 1/3/6/9/12 month leaves, and have sweetened the pot to cover things like medical premiums while you're gone. I anticipate more people making the leap. I took a week later in June, but may just make that a month. Might be the only time I'm ever able to hold that much vacation time in the summer. Lol.

Still no word on any sort of formal Early Out package. DL has been pretty blunt about how this is going to get worse before it gets better, but they are also pretty adamant about wanting to avoid layoffs if possible.

What did they offer to sweeten the pot Kev.

My wife signed up for 3 months. My understanding is she would receive 25 percent pay and that the company would not contest unemployment claims. Did they offer something further?

 

[paul1]

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/American-Airlines yes

what is numbers for vloa and buyouts at AA

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

It's debt isn't from it's own doing; it's from the $50B pre-funding millstone that's been placed around it's neck that T5 notes above. As for "dead weight," I'm not sure how it is in TUL, but where I'm at, they're are constantly trying to hire/backfill spots. They're running lean already.

About that millstone, our government sends billions in aid to other countries, they gave billions in bailouts to the banks and stand to give billions in bailouts to the airlines. I don't think that "millstone" is as much of a burden as the government likes to portray it to be.

Also let's not forget the Post Office is a government agency. I have yet to see a government agency without dead weight. Usually at the upper levels. Of course I am sure they always have openings at entry level, they need someone to do the **** work. I also bet they do everything they can to wash them out so they can get newer cheaper labor.

That being said by refusing to do hiring it would cause a decrease in supply (labor) which would raise the cost of postage. When postage goes up these companies are going to send less junk mail. While this could decrease revenue (it would depend on if the higher rate canceled out the loss of volume) it would most certainly decrease cost and future debt. Maybe there is a law that keeps them from doing that I don't know but it seems to me the post office needs to raise prices.

 

[eolesen]

Wow, this is what I get for taking off the weekend...

in essence, if the govt. allows aa to go belly-up, so will others and there will be no industry.

You're assuming that AAL's response to the crisis will be the same as for DAL, SWA, and UAL.

News flash... you have completely different corporate cultures. SWA and DAL employees will do whatever it takes to save their companies. UAL is well along the way to being the same.

AAL openly despises their management, and has a history of asking its employees for cuts just to turn around and reward management. Do you really think those employees will dig as deep to "help out" voluntarily?...

really? so, how big is southwest in bos/lga/jfk? southwest and alaska fly intl. to europe/s. america and asia??

sorry, if aa goes, then the others go.

no one here has given a scenario where aa gets cut off and somehow, delta and united plod on. right. if aa goes, so do the others

You really have your head in the sand. Or somewhere else dark.

There are indeed scenarios. I've already talked about corporate culture and how willing employees will be to "pull together win together"... That directly translates into which banks will be willing to loan money or restructure debt.

AA just finished a rather large re-fleeting program where DL and UA didn't. That translates into a lot of higher inherent costs, and a much different equation for anyone looking to roll the dice on lending.

I don't know how AA has as far as owned/unencumbered aircraft in comparison, but it's probably fair to say that with the number of airplanes being retired and parked, it will be a challenge to try and mortgage owned airplanes to raise cash. Likewise, it may be a challenge to park some of these given the higher cost of ownership on those newer airplanes.

I read today that a 757 had a tail strike on landing the other day in LAS. Then it flew right to ROW.

Is that true? How many 757's are now left in the fleet?

Yep. On topic with the thread, this is probably an early retirement.

 

[dfw gen]

Wow, this is what I get for taking off the weekend...




You're assuming that AAL's response to the crisis will be the same as for DAL, SWA, and UAL.

News flash... you have completely different corporate cultures. SWA and DAL employees will do whatever it takes to save their companies. UAL is well along the way to being the same.

AAL openly despises their management, and has a history of asking its employees for cuts just to turn around and reward management. Do you really think those employees will dig as deep to "help out" voluntarily?...



You really have your head in the sand. Or somewhere else dark.

There are indeed scenarios. I've already talked about corporate culture and how willing employees will be to "pull together win together"... That directly translates into which banks will be willing to loan money or restructure debt.

AA just finished a rather large re-fleeting program where DL and UA didn't. That translates into a lot of higher inherent costs, and a much different equation for anyone looking to roll the dice on lending.

I don't know how AA has as far as owned/unencumbered aircraft in comparison, but it's probably fair to say that with the number of airplanes being retired and parked, it will be a challenge to try and mortgage owned airplanes to raise cash. Likewise, it may be a challenge to park some of these given the higher cost of ownership on those newer airplanes.



Yep. On topic with the thread, this is probably an early retirement.

Hit the nail on the head. I personally wont pull together to win together. Been burnt to many times on that one. This managent team is no better then the last and the one before that. As far as im concerned they are on their own with this one. They spent 5 years of the most profitable time in aviation history taking care of themselves and dragging their feet to do the right thing by us. Being in maintenance ill be fine, if there was anything that 9/11 taught me was to clean up my house and be prepared.

 

[swamt]

HA!



I'm assuming it's this one?

http://avherald.com/h?article=4d59e06b&opt=0



They're now offering 1/3/6/9/12 month leaves, and have sweetened the pot to cover things like medical premiums while you're gone. I anticipate more people making the leap. I took a week later in June, but may just make that a month. Might be the only time I'm ever able to hold that much vacation time in the summer. Lol.

Still no word on any sort of formal Early Out package. DL has been pretty blunt about how this is going to get worse before it gets better, but they are also pretty adamant about wanting to avoid layoffs if possible.

Glad to hear they are sweetening the pot. Hope they do here too.
Also no "Early Out" word here as of yet also Kev. SWA also saying layoffs are a last step too, and they will do anything to avoid them at all cost first and foremost. Hoping enough folks can take the leaves now to help stave off any hardships later.
Good luck Kev on your choices of what to do. I too am looking at a full month here soon.

What did they offer to sweeten the pot Kev.

My wife signed up for 3 months. My understanding is she would receive 25 percent pay and that the company would not contest unemployment claims. Did they offer something further?

REMEMBER; I said earlier companies love to throw out little verbages to throw off employees to thinking they WILL get unemployment, when in fact, in Tx., they may and more than likely WILL NOT. I just researched for myself collecting benefits if I were to take a month off on VLOA Voluntary Leave Of Absence. Since the word "VOLUNTARY" is attached to it, and "I" have a choice, but took the leave, then I will be rejected by the TWC Tx. Workforce Commision for unemployment benefits. YES the co. will say, "we not contest any unemployment benefit filings if our employees file for it on these leaves". This does not mean you will be approved for the benefits. And for myself can tell you I would NOT receive any benefits as it is a "VOLUNTARY" by my actions to take the leave. Texas rules are that it must be not by the employees doings. Fair warning folks. Don't just think you will get benefits because your company says the will not contest it...

 

[swamt]

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/incredible-videos-grounded-planes-around-world/

WOW!!!