DOT Approves AS/AA LAX-MEX Route Swap

[MAH4546]

AA will likely overtake DL in a matter of 12-18 months. See how fast AA has become the largest U.S. Airline between LAX and Mexico? It'll be that easy.

 

[WorldTraveler]

If it happens, then celebrate then.

But you have repeatedly miscalculated AA's ability to grow without a response from competitors.

Again, you tout AA's superiority by a few seats per day without considering that DL will also grew by the same amount when DL starts its own LAX-MEX service a few months later.

I have no problem if AA succeeds - I really don't - but when you continue to tout AA's superiority which is still not really that, you will meet resistance.

just be honest, MAH.

AA is trying to not end up in LAX what it has become in NYC but it has work to do while hoping that competitors will stand still.

THAT is the reality.

 

[eolesen]

1) Just looked, and up until 2013, both FDF & PTP were flown from SJU with nothing larger than an ATR72 going back ten years.

2) Kev, I can't say I've seen *any* seasonal reductions to Mexico since before 2006, and that's casting a wide net over all of DL's hubs. There was even some spring break only service that came up (AUS-CUN & SAT-CUN).

 

[Lake Central]

Did Delta ever reunite the Westminster dog owners with their dogs?  

 

[WorldTraveler]

1) Just looked, and up until 2013, both FDF & PTP were flown from SJU with nothing larger than an ATR72 going back ten years.

2) Kev, I can't say I've seen *any* seasonal reductions to Mexico since before 2006, and that's casting a wide net over all of DL's hubs. There was even some spring break only service that came up (AUS-CUN & SAT-CUN).

since a number of DL's routes to Mexico ARE seasonal, including the ones that were mentioned here, you clearly didn't look very hard.

and, yes, DL has changed the frequency of a number of routes in Mexico over the past several years and so have other carriers.... you are just a little aware of the violence that has gone on in some of the Pacific resorts?

 

[silverbird007]

Who cares? Why does anyone even care what Delta does or doesn't do? They are not a threat to American! Maybe at one time but not any more! AA could push Delta out of any market that it wanted to. It appears " someone" is very agitated about AA, maybe because AA is roughly 35% larger than #3 Delta, the only reason Delta is doing as well as it is, is because AA allows it! Delta will never be what American or even United is.  I don't think Parker or Smisek loses any sleep over what Delta or Spirit either one is doing!

 

[WorldTraveler]

the reason some of us care is because people keep making statements that AA will be the biggest carrier in LAX and similar things.

If they were content just to say that AA will be adding AS' LAX-MEX route, then there would be no problem.

but a statement of size is a statement of comparison and requires that the facts be stated.

There is nothing wrong with AA growing at LAX, but they are not the largest int'l airline and the addition of LAX-MEX won't change that.

further, there have literally hundreds of posts by people here who have said that DL had no ability to grow at LAX because it was out of space or would be and yet DL has managed both to keep growing at LAX but also become LAX' largest int'l carrier.

So, if you and others want to leave DL out of the discussion, then don't make statements about what DL can or can't do which turn out NOT to be the case and also don't make statements of comparison, esp. that turn out not to be true based on the current market - in which DL IS the largest int'l carrier, regardless of whether AA has all kinds of extra domestic capacity which neither DL or UA have but which don't stop them from getting higher average fares.

 

[bob@las-AA]

Domestic Departures LAX on 01/31/2015
 
WN 81
AA 77
UA 61
DL 44
AS 18
US 18

 

[WorldTraveler]

and again, no one has argued that AA doesn't have a lot of MAINLINE DOMESTIC size at LAX. They do.

the issue is the growth rate overall and how AA compares with other carriers in the int'l marketplace.

Just as overall, DL's growth rate is higher than any other legacy carrier and most of the rest of the LCCs as well and DL is also adding mainline domestic capacity as well as int'l capacity while some carriers are pulling it down.

so, if you or others want to make a comparison between AA and other carriers either at LAX or elsewhere, there is no doubt of AA's size in the domestic market.

The issue that is being debated is AA's int'l size relative to other carriers in the top competitive markets of the US.

given capacity restraints at LAX, nearly all carriers have a strong incentive to grow as much as they can, esp. in the domestic market where the capacity of the airport is approaching its limits, even with whatever new gates might be built.

also, not sure why you chose 1/31/2015 but it was a Saturday which is a slower day for most carriers. Mondays and Fridays are more reflective of peak schedules and highlight what routes/markets are more business oriented.

 

[robbedagain]

bob  add US and AA and it becomes 95 departures   w WN behind at 81  then UA at 61  followed by DL 44  then AS at 18    Gee  it sure does not look like DL is largest at LAX as someone claims

 

[WorldTraveler]

once again, robbed, I never said that DL is the largest airline at LAX.

I said that DL is the largest INT'L airline at LAX and it is based on both forward looking capacity and historical local revenue and passengers.

Bob isn't even trying to argue the int'l point.

and again, what is happening at LAX with AA is not much different from what has happened across AA's network as a result of the merger. US was a heavily domestic airline whose int'l network was heavily concentrated in Star markets and where US could carry low yield traffic which was "stolen" from other carrier hubs... and the combination of AA plus US has still left AA as the third largest int'l carrier overall and is just now surpassing UA at LAX based on seats.

 

[diamondcutter]

So basically AA is the largest carrier overall , period!

 

[commavia]

And again, Delta's super-incredibly-amazingly-awesome-critically-important lead among international seats out of LAX is not nearly as important as certain dead-horse-beaters continually repeat because AA is no slouch in terms of international network breadth and depth out of LAX.  Congratulations to Delta for being larger out of LAX to international markets - for now - but the context is important, given that it's largely driven by VFR- and/or leisure-heavy markets in Mexico and Central America, and given the fact that AA offers nonstop access to notable premium/business international markets where Delta is absent (GRU, YYZ, etc.).
 
As already said - I don't think AA is too worried, what with their extensive domestic and international network out of LAX, 3-class transcons, enviable gate position (including, soon, heavy TBIT access), etc.
 
Reality.

 

[WorldTraveler]

as long as you are comfortable that AA is a big domestic carrier, then sure, AA can be whatever it wants.

but why is it that you relish to harp on AA's size at LAX but you get so defensive when NYC is mentioned?

Why can't you just admit that DL is the clear largest carrier in NYC including at both LGA and JFK where AA and DL most overlap and also admit that AA is the largest airline at LAX SOLELY because of its domestic presence?

and no one has ever doubted AA's size overall at LAX or that they are growing -but you can't admit that DL is actually the largest int'l carrier at LAX- by nearly 20% even when you factor in the LAX-MEX route (which DL will add in due time as well).

I'm sorry but GRU is NOT a premium market from LAX or the average fares would show it. AA gets lower average fares from LAX to GRU than AA gets from DFW and LAX is a couple hours longer. And we haven't even seen the most recent DOT statistics.

And AA struck out on the HND route and instead will have even more competition to China where AA is the weakest carrier of the big 3.

those are also the facts but you seem to always want to ignore them. You would do well to be drop your defenses and admit the whole situation.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

If the situation was reversed, that is if DL was the largest carrier at LAX (and largest domestic carrier at LAX) and AA was .... cough .... cough #3 (but with a large int. presence at LAX, a niche player some would say) - does anybody else think that a certain DL fankid cheerleader would be praising DL for having the foresight to build such a large presence and thus shelter itself from the negative side effects of a strong US-dollar?
 
\What?
It wouldn't fit a certain narrative on this thread?
I thought so!