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Prior to the DL/NW merger, you had CO/DL/NW in the Skyteam alliance. Were there any special approvals needed when that was initially formed?It could be that the decision was made not to include US since it would be harder to get approval for ATI with 3 U.S. carriers included.
CO's entry into the Star Alliance makes US a less valuable player. But it certainly does not portend that US will be asked to leave. I just think that UA will drive more codeshare traffic through CO instead of US, and that certainly is not good for US. I guess the old saying is true that "two's company; three's a crowd."
This would be true if UAL were the only interested party, however UAL and CAL are nothing in the southeast. With your assumption, Star doesn't need US. I feel the opposite. With no true southern exposure, Star needs US.