DL plans MCO-GRU service
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DL's longhaul operations were from MIA and in case you missed it, DL was doing MIA-LHR until it gained enough slots in order to have a viable LHR operation from its own hubs. The intra-Florida operations were to feed DL and its JV partner flights as well as take advantage of the local market. DL's decision to cut 50 seat flying drove more of the need for DL to pull back than the lack of a market.
and given that the MIA-Brazil market is huge and DL and Gol have the ability to feed MCO-GRU at MCO, including with MIA flights, and from GRU with G3 flights, the chances are very high that the flight will do very well, esp. if DL and G3 start a joint venture when Open Skies allow it to do so and when G3 pulls its own aircraft off of US flights and instead share revenues with DL.
and given that the MIA-Brazil market is huge and DL and Gol have the ability to feed MCO-GRU at MCO, including with MIA flights, and from GRU with G3 flights, the chances are very high that the flight will do very well, esp. if DL and G3 start a joint venture when Open Skies allow it to do so and when G3 pulls its own aircraft off of US flights and instead share revenues with DL.
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DL has apparently requested MCO-BSB service on a 757 4X/week starting in December.
route number 2 for DL from Florida to S. America.
route number 2 for DL from Florida to S. America.
FrugalFlyerv2.0
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WorldTraveler said:
WorldTraveler said:
I thought that you said (repeatedly) that it isn't good idea to add capacity to Brazil given the current weakness of their currency and economy?
Has something changed recently, or just your narrative?
Kev3188
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I noticed that too...
Seems like add odd P2P route, but if covers the DOC's then, hey, why not?
Seems like add odd P2P route, but if covers the DOC's then, hey, why not?
eolesen
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I seriously doubt DL's strategy is to pursue break-even flying...
Did someone mention currency issues?
http://www.airlineforums.com/topic/57922-azul-lands-in-aas-backyard-aa-lands-in-azuls/
We had an entire discussion around how destructive added flying was for AA, primarily due to the currency devaluations in Brasil, and the US-BR routes being ~75% BR POS.
Did someone mention currency issues?
http://www.airlineforums.com/topic/57922-azul-lands-in-aas-backyard-aa-lands-in-azuls/
We had an entire discussion around how destructive added flying was for AA, primarily due to the currency devaluations in Brasil, and the US-BR routes being ~75% BR POS.
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MCO is one of the highest value markets from Brazil, it is one of the largest O&Ds that is not served nonstop from S. America by any US airline on their own metal, and it also puts DL much closer to being a direct competitor to the huge Latin population in S. Florida.
And Brazilians are leaving Brazil or buying property in the US because the expectation is that higher taxes and a weaker economy could position Brazilians with real estate in the US to move up in the immigration line which seems likely to be reformed in the US in the next few years.
We haven't seen full schedules but DL is not adding capacity to Brazil so far as can be told at this point.
Their 4X/week MCO-GRU service will be funded by elimination of the 2nd ATL-GRU flight but with the remaining ATL-GRU being upgraded to daily 333 service, I'm not sure how the GRU numbers work.
DL had already planned to reduce ATL-BSB to 4X/week so if MCO=BSB is operated 4X/week, it is a net addition of 1X/week 757.
further, this appears to be a prelude to DL's intent to request a JV with Gol which flies to both MCO and MIA via intermediate points on 737s which are not likely profitable against so much nonstop capacity. DL is also going to codeshare on Gol's flights which I suspect might be moved to other US destinations leaving DL to fly NYC and MCO on its own.
Finally, DL is going where the largest Latin markets are and for Brazil it is MCO, S. Florida, and NYC. DL has 2 of the 3 of those nonstop or will later this year.
the only real question at this point is how long before DL starts building Florida from other countries in Latin America and if MCO is the stepping stone to MIA, how long it will be before DL adds those flights.
DL's growth from Latin America and esp deep S. America to Florida is here
And Brazilians are leaving Brazil or buying property in the US because the expectation is that higher taxes and a weaker economy could position Brazilians with real estate in the US to move up in the immigration line which seems likely to be reformed in the US in the next few years.
We haven't seen full schedules but DL is not adding capacity to Brazil so far as can be told at this point.
Their 4X/week MCO-GRU service will be funded by elimination of the 2nd ATL-GRU flight but with the remaining ATL-GRU being upgraded to daily 333 service, I'm not sure how the GRU numbers work.
DL had already planned to reduce ATL-BSB to 4X/week so if MCO=BSB is operated 4X/week, it is a net addition of 1X/week 757.
further, this appears to be a prelude to DL's intent to request a JV with Gol which flies to both MCO and MIA via intermediate points on 737s which are not likely profitable against so much nonstop capacity. DL is also going to codeshare on Gol's flights which I suspect might be moved to other US destinations leaving DL to fly NYC and MCO on its own.
Finally, DL is going where the largest Latin markets are and for Brazil it is MCO, S. Florida, and NYC. DL has 2 of the 3 of those nonstop or will later this year.
the only real question at this point is how long before DL starts building Florida from other countries in Latin America and if MCO is the stepping stone to MIA, how long it will be before DL adds those flights.
DL's growth from Latin America and esp deep S. America to Florida is here
FrugalFlyerv2.0
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jcw said:
Too bad they didn't do their due diligence on
I wonder if the route will be seasonal?
FrugalFlyerv2.0
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WorldTraveler said:
Why do I get the feeling that you're putting on too much spin or worse, just making things up yet again?
Granted, this is from Wiki, but it doesn't quite fit your narrative:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_American#Brazilian_American_communities
South Florida's large Brazilian community is mostly centered between around the islands and northeastern section of Miami-Dade County (North Bay Village, Bay Harbor Islands, Miami Beach, Surfside, Key Biscayne, Aventura, and Sunny Isles Beach) with the exception of Doral. In Broward County, the population is centered around the northeastern part as well (Deerfield Beach, Pompano Beach, Oakland Park, Coconut Creek, Lighthouse Point, and Sea Ranch Lakes), with some living on the border of Palm Beach County, Florida.
he top 25 U.S. communities with the highest percentages of people claiming Brazilian ancestry are:[18]
- East Newark, New Jersey 6.20%
- North Bay Village, Florida 6.00%
- Danbury, Connecticut 4.90%
- Harrison, New Jersey and Framingham, Massachusetts 4.80%
- Somerville, Massachusetts 4.50%
- Kearny, New Jersey 3.70%
- Vineyard Haven, Massachusetts 3.60%
- Deerfield Beach, Florida 3.50%
- Everett, Massachusetts 3.20%
- Marlborough, Massachusetts 3.10%
- Long Branch, New Jersey 2.80%
- Edgartown, Massachusetts 2.70%
- Newark, New Jersey, Doral, Florida and Oak Bluffs, Massachusetts 2.50%
- Miami Beach, Florida, Hillside, New Jersey and Hudson, Massachusetts 2.20%
- Oakland Park, Florida, South River, New Jersey, Cliffside Park, New Jersey and Tisbury, Massachusetts 2.10%
- Fairview, New Jersey 2.00%
- Aventura, Florida 1.90%
- Lauramie, Indiana 1.80%
- Revere, Massachusetts, Malden, Massachusetts and Sea Ranch Lakes, Florida 1.70%
- Surfside, Florida, Barnstable, Massachusetts, Lowell, Massachusetts, Ojus, Florida, Washington, Ohio and Naugatuck, Connecticut 1.60%
- Milford, Massachusetts, Dennis Port, Massachusetts, Keene, Texas, Key Biscayne, Florida, Mount Vernon, New York, Avondale Estates, Georgia and Sunny Isles Beach, Florida 1.50%
- Riverside, New Jersey and Trenton, Florida 1.40%
- South Lancaster, Massachusetts, Great River, New York and Port Chester, New York 1.30%
- Coconut Creek, Florida, Belle Isle, Florida, Big Pine Key, Florida, Chelsea, Massachusetts, Yarmouth, Massachusetts, Bridgeport, Connecticut, Elizabeth, New Jersey and Ashland, Massachusetts 1.20%
- Pompano Beach, Florida, Corte Madera, California and Delran, New Jersey 1.10%
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nobody said Brazilian TOURISTS go to places where Brazilians live.
and your statistics undoubtedly do not include non-resident Brazilians who own property in the US - heavily in Florida - but do not even currently have legal status to come to the US for more than 180 days MAX per year as tourists.
Very well could be. Brazil demand is heavily seasonal. AA knows that dynamic exists with its MIA flights which are being cut back after the peak southern hemisphere summer season.
and your statistics undoubtedly do not include non-resident Brazilians who own property in the US - heavily in Florida - but do not even currently have legal status to come to the US for more than 180 days MAX per year as tourists.
or AA on JFK to HND.jcw said:
FrugalFlyerv2.0 said:Too bad they didn't do their due diligence onDTW-HND,SEA-HND, ... ... ...
I wonder if the route will be seasonal?
Very well could be. Brazil demand is heavily seasonal. AA knows that dynamic exists with its MIA flights which are being cut back after the peak southern hemisphere summer season.
except again there is no evidence so far that DL is expanding anything but just reallocating and starting a new gateway that happens to be where a great deal of demand goes (including on AA via MIA) and where no US carrier has had nonstop service.jcw said:
So much spin.
Brazil-U.S. isn't strong right now. Delta is cutting capacity overall in the market, while moving other capacity from Atlanta to Orlando. Simple as that. It's not an entirely dumb idea, but the fact remains that Brazilian tourism to the U.S. is going to start hurting, the fares from Orlando to Brazil suck, and while the market is absolutely huge, it's still only about two-fifths the size as it is from Miami.
Brazil-U.S. isn't strong right now. Delta is cutting capacity overall in the market, while moving other capacity from Atlanta to Orlando. Simple as that. It's not an entirely dumb idea, but the fact remains that Brazilian tourism to the U.S. is going to start hurting, the fares from Orlando to Brazil suck, and while the market is absolutely huge, it's still only about two-fifths the size as it is from Miami.
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I have repeatedly said that US- Brazil is not strong. Brazil tourism isn't going to start hurting. It already is.
DL just apparently appears to not be cutting capacity as much as redeploying it... but I don't know how much is cut or not. MCO is about an hour closer to Brazil than ATL is so they could be cutting costs by operating shorter int'l flights and they do have plenty of connecting capacity at MCO than can feed MCO flights - and there could be more. We are just seeing the int'l part of it right now.
We don't really know what DL's capacity will be because they are cutting flights while adding others and adjusting aircraft types.
if you know what the final change for seats, let me know because I haven't got the memo yet.
and again, no one has said that DL intends to overtake AA from MIA. but DL does realize it is not competitive in the S. Florida to Latin America market and also can carry more of the Central Florida market without directly stepping on AA's toes.
but if DL's strategy really is to work its way down to MIA, then MCO to Brazil is a great step in the right direction by redeploying ATL capacity.
and as much as everything here is always AA vs DL, it is also very possible that DL's strategy is as much focused at B6 which has had free reign to grow to Latin America as well as Azul with whom B6 doesn't have a JV but very well could in the near future. Azul is a threat to Gol which is the only one of the big 3 Brazilian carriers that doesn't have widebody int'l ops. DL could well be setting up for a JV that positions Gol to better compete in the int'l market more with TAM and Azul than with AA.
DL just apparently appears to not be cutting capacity as much as redeploying it... but I don't know how much is cut or not. MCO is about an hour closer to Brazil than ATL is so they could be cutting costs by operating shorter int'l flights and they do have plenty of connecting capacity at MCO than can feed MCO flights - and there could be more. We are just seeing the int'l part of it right now.
We don't really know what DL's capacity will be because they are cutting flights while adding others and adjusting aircraft types.
if you know what the final change for seats, let me know because I haven't got the memo yet.
and again, no one has said that DL intends to overtake AA from MIA. but DL does realize it is not competitive in the S. Florida to Latin America market and also can carry more of the Central Florida market without directly stepping on AA's toes.
but if DL's strategy really is to work its way down to MIA, then MCO to Brazil is a great step in the right direction by redeploying ATL capacity.
and as much as everything here is always AA vs DL, it is also very possible that DL's strategy is as much focused at B6 which has had free reign to grow to Latin America as well as Azul with whom B6 doesn't have a JV but very well could in the near future. Azul is a threat to Gol which is the only one of the big 3 Brazilian carriers that doesn't have widebody int'l ops. DL could well be setting up for a JV that positions Gol to better compete in the int'l market more with TAM and Azul than with AA.
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