DL January Performance

jcw

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Aug 12, 2004
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DL announced today that PRASM was down 3.5% for January - one airline was being trashed for forecasting their PRASM would be down where DL was forecasting an uptick - I guess DL was misleading investors - interesting that DL is having currency problems - I guess that was not hedged
 
it was in line with what was forecast and it also is in line with what other carriers have said.

The reason why it was a negative for other carriers was because other carriers underperformed the industry - which means that some carriers did better than others.

let's see how other airlines fare relative to DL and if other carriers did better than DL, then DL does deserve to reap criticism.

given that DL stock was upgraded yesterday and is a "buy" or "strong buy" by 89% of the analysts covering it, then there doesn't appear to be a lot of concern that DL's financials will deteriorate.

DL's January results, even though it did include some impact from last year's winter weather (which may take place this year in Feb), do indicate that the industry is likely reaching limits of how much fares can rise, esp. in the int'l arena - which says that int'l expansion will be much less likely to generate revenue growth - and that is what we have seen for the past several months across the board.

DL noted that the domestic system remains strong which says that this is likely the year to reap financial rewards in the domestic sector instead of expand internationally.
 
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  • #3
Sorry your wrong - from transcript:
 
Q:  "Then just a housekeeping, the first quarter is that PRASM that you expect to be flat or total RASM?
 
A:  EVP and Chief Financial Officer - "That’s PRASM."
 
 
So DL said it would be flat - it's down 3.5% how is that in line with forecast - sorry to burst your bubble.
 
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jcw  come on bro  youre spilling FACTS   and you know when you spill Facts  someone comes unhinged  pretty dam fast     can only imagine if it were not the widget what that unhinged dude would say
 
no, he is confusing month and quarter and trying to throw dirt while mixing basic units of time.

DL didn't report anything that contradicts what was previously forecast.


other carriers have indeed said they would have negative RASM growth for the quarter, not just the month.
 
jcw said:
Sorry your wrong - from transcript:
 
Q:  "Then just a housekeeping, the first quarter is that PRASM that you expect to be flat or total RASM?
 
A:  EVP and Chief Financial Officer - "That’s PRASM."
 
 
So DL said it would be flat - it's down 3.5% how is that in line with forecast - sorry to burst your bubble.
FWIW January was expected to be a bit rough
making up for in Feb and Mar....hopefully.  
 
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So what you are saying is at least one month they need to be up at least 3.5% and at least flat in the other - pretty tough to do with a the currency headwinds
 
jcw said:
So what you are saying is at least one month they need to be up at least 3.5% and at least flat in the other - pretty tough to do with a the currency headwinds
I would say yes. 
Considering they made the statement they would be flat in Q1 half way into January they must have a positive outlook on bookings for Feb, Mar. 
 
they have also said they would trim a little bit of extra capacity in those months too. (some day of the week reductions and such) 
 
jcw said:
So what you are saying is at least one month they need to be up at least 3.5% and at least flat in the other - pretty tough to do with a the currency headwinds
go back and look at last quarter.

there were HUGE differences in RASM performance for some months (for the carriers that report it by month) and what was reported on a quarterly basis.
 
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Oh wait - you just said this is only a month then you say look at the first quarter - we can't look at the first quarter it's not done - it's just interesting they are starting in a big hole
 
DL said it was what was forecast.

should we give you a quarter to call the SEC so you can them that DL is lying?

btw, can you tell us the RASM guidance that AA or any other carrier provided for the first quarter?
 
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  • #15
Well yes I can post them and I can tell you if you got them right
 

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