DL biggest winner if PANYNJ removes LGA perimeter

[WorldTraveler]

"The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which controls New York Citys three major airports, said it is studying the so-called perimeter rule to determine whether it remains in the best interest of the regions air travelers. The authority said any change would occur only after thorough analysis and consultation with all interested parties in a public and transparent manner.

"Officials at two airlines said Delta has been lobbying Port Authority officials to reconsider the perimeter rule. Delta declined to comment."



article from WSJ under title "After Decades, La Guardia Airport May Allow Long-Haul Flights to Los Angeles, San Francisco"

also
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2325746-west-coast-flights-out-of-la-guardia-a-possibility?auth_param=6rl2l:1aesebu:5f50f5e81fc6388477ae5c632de42899&uprof=45

UA and B6 would likely be the most negatively impacted

 

[jcw]

You assume that the govt does not force small cities to keep service you might have many folks in congress trying to pass a law to prevent it if they lose their daily flight to NY from their district

How many cities will DL have to reduce to make room

 

[WorldTraveler]

the perimeter restrictions at LGA are not imposed by the gov't... they are imposed by the Port Authority which does not have the power to force airlines to use slots in any particular manner.

there is no need to cut any cities...and DL doesn't want to do that because the strength of DL's hub is that they serve more cities from LGA than any other airline.

there are many markets from LGA that are served by multiple RJ frequencies and which could easily have fewer frequencies but on larger aircraft..... look at how many flights there are from NYC (all 3 airports) to RDU, most of which are on RJs.

and don't forget that AA will be trying to do the very same thing. AA has no more ability to create slots at LGA so if they want to get into the action - and they absolutely do - they will have to cut service to smaller cities. IN fact, given AA's smaller number of slots, the odds are much higher that AA will be the one that will be cutting smaller cities and adding longhaul domestic flights.

and let's also remember that shifting a portion of the flight by both AA and DL to long-haul use will make it possible to put larger aircraft on the short-haul flights that remain.

the only losers are UA which will have a full domestic hub at close-in LGA and B6 which will see a large portion of its domestic traffic get shifted to LGA and onto AA and/or DL.

DL will just have more slots to allow more flights to be added - or else AA will drop a lot of short haul destinations in order to support long-haul flying... either way DL wins the most.

 

[MAH4546]

Any such major change in the way LaGuardia is purposed could trigger a DOJ review of slot allocation, something that might be happening regardless at all the New York airports. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

as much as you'd like for Parker to be exonerated for screwing up the slot transaction, it won't happen.

Parker gave away the slots in a fair and square deal and there is going to be nothing done to rectify the reality that DL is now the largest slot holder in NYC and at both LGA and JFK.

further, the perimeter restrictions at LGA are not federally mandated and the federal gov't can't alter them.

All that will likely result from this is that AA will consolidate its operations at LGA, close JFK as a hub and leave a few flights to LHR and a GRU flight, and end up with a LGA operation that is still smaller than DL's.

dream on, but AA and US have both screwed up strategically so many times that nothing is going to be able to save them from the consequences of their actions.

and as much as it burns your little crotch to see what AA has become at LGA, you would be do well to be reminded that AA still controls a higher percentage of slots at DCA than DL does at either LGA or JFK.

If you think that AA will walk away from any attempts at fucking with DL, you will be sorely mistaken.

exhibit 1 would be AA's attempt to snag DL's SEA-HND slot which has only resulted in AA now having two profitable LAX to Tokyo flights PLUS LAX-PVG, LAX-LHR, and LAX-SYD.

Parker, like you, has no capacity for strategic thinking. He has been played every time he shows up to mess with DL

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

... either way DL wins the most.

 
Haven't heard this phrase before ... ... ...
 

there is going to be nothing done to rectify the reality that DL is now the largest slot holder in NYC and at both LGA and JFK.
 

AA, or any other airlines could always sue DL, PANYNJ, etc. - but hey, why am I telling you this? You of all people certainly know the 'lawsuits' song and dance.

 

[topDawg]

Any such major change in the way LaGuardia is purposed could trigger a DOJ review of slot allocation, something that might be happening regardless at all the New York airports. 

lol someone is living in dream land. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

yeah... but he kept arguing that AA would come in and bust up the slot deal between DL and US

and anybody could well file a lawsuit but they must have grounds to do so.

the perimeter restrictions at LGA are PANYNJ imposed and courts have ruled they can do what they want about them including waive them.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

If the LGA restrictions do go away, it'll be interesting to see how many small cities lose DL and AA service to LGA. And it'll be interesting how DL and B6 will be affected at JFK.

 

[WorldTraveler]

probably few if any DL cities because DL has so much frequency that they can easily upgrade to larger aircraft and reduce frequency.

realistically, DL would be pushing it to have 15-20 transcon flights from LGA; that is less than 10% of all of DL's LGA slots.... in order to match DL's schedule, any other carrier would have to take cut far more short-haul flights.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

But how would adding transcons service to LGA affect not just DL but AA and B6 and their ops at JFK? Would there be any effects - or is the transcon service sort of a stand-alone product similar to the DCA-LGA-BOS shuttle? If the LGA perimeter restrictions go away, would it be logical for DL duplicate some transcon service from LGA and JFK or consolidate everything at LGA? And to take it a bit off topic, what are the possible markets from JFK that could see service if slots formerly used for transcons become available?

 

[WorldTraveler]

there is no doubt it would shift some demand from JFK to LGA - but a lot of the demand that is shifted would be from UA and B6 and VX which don't have anywhere near the number of slots at LGA to operate a decent sized transcon presence from JFK (and remember these aren't just transcons but would also allow flights beyond the perimeter which would allow flights to AUS and SAT to operate at LGA)

and the transcon flights have a higher percentage of local traffic than other domestic flights but not as high as the Shuttle so they need some feed - or smaller aircraft need to be used.

and yes, it makes sense for DL to duplicate service at JFK even if they operate transcon flights at LGA.

btw, if you think this is only a DL-pushed strategy, you might consider that AA is undoubtedly looking for ways to get a leg up against B6 and UA.

even if the move hurts AA's JFK oeprations which are smaller than B6 or DL's, AA stands to gain far more revenue at LGA. and let's also remember that AA still has a lot of American Eagle flights at JFK; AA will be finding it harder and harder to support the amount of 50 seat flying on its network and might well be happy to get out of small RJ flying from LGA and JFK and consolidate connections at PHL.

AA like DL could try to backfill some of the JFK flying but the chances are real high that AA would simply expand its LGA operations, reduce JFK further to hubs and realize that they are better off leaving the largest operations at JFK to DL and B6.

considering that LAX is the only west coast market where AA is #1 or #2, they are better off concentrating at LGA where they can operate enough flights with perhaps only DL as a competitor and UA to SFO - and gain an advantage over B6 and VX.

because DL doesn't have a PHL and because DL's int'l presence at JFK is much larger than AA's, DL could likely find enough markets to add to replace any traffic that moves to LGA - and of course, DL could also put more pressure on B6.

this will be all very interesting to watch but this is honestly a change that could help both AA and DL

 

[WorldTraveler]

confirmation of what I said regarding winners and losers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-26/delta-seen-winning-jetblue-losing-with-longer-laguardia-flights?cmpid=yhoo

 

[MAH4546]

yeah... but he kept arguing that AA would come in and bust up the slot deal between DL and US

and anybody could well file a lawsuit but they must have grounds to do so.

the perimeter restrictions at LGA are PANYNJ imposed and courts have ruled they can do what they want about them including waive them.

 
I never argued that. I suggested AA should.
 
Among the amazing things you have argued (remember, you are often wrong more than not) are that DOT would never dare consider to strip Delta of it's Seattle-Haneda slot or that there was no way Delta would ever get evicted from Love Field (that happened today, FYI). But hey, let's keep make pretending that a major shift in market dynamics won't trigger a DOJ review. And at the end of the day this isn't some AA fanboy fantasy, because AA wouldn't benefit from any divested slots whatsoever. You love to forget that AA has a huge holding of slots at LaGuardia - nearly one-third of them. It likely wouldn't be able to acquire any divested slots.
 
Lest I remind you, a review of slot allocations in New York City is already underway.
 
https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsId=18054

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL pilot leadership has supposedly been quoted as saying that the lie flat BE configured 757s will be DL's airplane of choice for transcon flights and DL will add flights from LGA to the west coast immediately if the slot perimeter restrictions are removed