DL and UA make midwest to Asia 744 heaven

[eolesen]

Tag flying is almost always about presence vs. cost.

DL would be better off partnering with one of the Asian carriers to handle the destinations like MNL/BKK/SIN/KUL which are too thin or out of range.

Strategically, it may even make more sense to launch nonstops into CAN, and let CZ handle the last stage on their metal. Geographically, CAN is a very close proxy to what AA is doing via HKG, and they now have a 72 hour transit visa-on-arrival program. The risk in that is the difference in experience for the customer.

 

[Kev3188]

I don't have any evidence, but I have always assumed that intra-Asia flying from the NRT hubs of both UA and DL is somewhat costly flying.   Looks like the USA-based pilots would rack up more hotel nights and on some shorter NRT-Asia routes would only fly 5 or 6 hours out or back with a day or two of mandatory rest at the spoke and/or NRT.

We (NW) used to own a hotel in NRT. Fairly certain we still at least use it for F/A's, but 100%. Maybe Meto can weigh in about where the pilots stay...
 

Without a joint venture partner,  DL will still have to fly some NRT-Asia routes or give them up entirely (SIN, BKK, MNL), but DL is helping itself with its new SEA hub, which overflies NRT and doesn't involve the inefficiencies of NRT-Asia flying described above.   
 
It's possible that DL could fly one or all of those far-flung routes nonstop from SEA, but those are really long, really expensive flights to operate, and I predict that nonstops to those cities will await much more fuel efficient airplanes and/or cheaper fuel prices (either by dropping or moderating while all other prices go up, making fuel a relative bargain to where it is today).

Why not just fly some of the Intra-Asia flights with NB equipment? Some of the shorter segments we're discussing today were flown with A/C as small as A320's during the SARS crisis. Just a thought...
 
 

Tag flying is almost always about presence vs. cost.

DL would be better off partnering with one of the Asian carriers to handle the destinations like MNL/BKK/SIN/KUL which are too thin or out of range.

Strategically, it may even make more sense to launch nonstops into CAN, and let CZ handle the last stage on their metal. Geographically, CAN is a very close proxy to what AA is doing via HKG, and they now have a 72 hour transit visa-on-arrival program. The risk in that is the difference in experience for the customer.

Interesting idea. NW flew to CAN for awhile. Pax & Freighter both.

Who knows what Hauenstein is cooking up down in his lab...

 

[commavia]

Why not just fly some of the Intra-Asia flights with NB equipment? Some of the shorter segments we're discussing today were flown with A/C as small as A320's during the SARS crisis. Just a thought...

 
Two reasons.  First, that likely actually increases the costs in several ways, including the fact that now a totally new support infrastructure for a non-standard fleet type needs to be moved over to Japan to maintain and operate jets that cannot be flowed back and forth to the U.S.  Second, the smaller the aircraft type gets, at some point you fall below a threshold of diminishing returns where the overall economic contribution that smaller (say, 150-seat) jet could possibly product simply don't justify the expense.  Delta did, in fact, try precisely this strategy - the story of the Northwest/Delta hub over the last 20 years has been one of progressively shrinking aircraft size on NRT-Asia routes.  But in market after market, the company has reached a point where it's just not worth it to fly the route for so few passengers.  And that's likely even more pronounced now that Delta has, in most cases, a perfectly viable alternative in SEA.  Case in point: NRT-SEL/ICN and NRT-PEK were both operated for years by Northwest on 747s, but by the end they had gone down to a 757 and 767, respectively, before Delta just decided it was not longer worth it to utilize assets that way when they could just route virtually all the same passengers over SEA on a larger aircraft.

 

[Kev3188]

I hear ya. Just throwing it out there.

Not sure what you have in mind regarding infrastructure, but I have to think most things are already in place (or could be shortly)- after all, it's been done before.

 

[commavia]

Not sure what you have in mind regarding infrastructure, but I have to think most things are already in place (or could be shortly)- after all, it's been done before.

 
The issue isn't the speed, but the cost.  To operate a standalone fleet over there, you have to build up an entire infrastructure - spares, tooling, GSE, any peculiar training, not to mention of course crews, and all of it is segmented and separated away from the operational core of the company back in the U.S.  Again - it's all about amortizing cost.  If you have this standalone feet thousands of miles away from the rest of the operation, but that operational fleet consists of dozens of airplanes, and/or is sufficiently large or high-capacity to generate a great deal of revenue, than it may be worth it to amortize this cost of unique/separate infrastructure.  But when you're just talking about a very small number of relatively small jets, the economics just don't make sense - precisely why Northwest stopped flying the A320s in Asia.

 

[metopower]

Yes the 744 pilots will bump to the 777 but they are on the whole junior to the 777. Also they will probably move to the 330 because they have flown it before and better trips.If i'm senior and have less then 3yrs I would not want to go through a long school on an airplane that i have not flown before.

 

[eolesen]

Perhaps if the contract had allowed DL to outsource the flying to someone who had the spares, etc. it could remain DL flying but someone else's metal & crews.

I know that the unions wouldn't stand for it, but that alternative has been used successfully by BA within South Africa -- they have an entire "domestic" operation operated by Comair using B737's in BA colors.

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL has not given up one inch of the local Japan to US market up to this point.

Too many people have repeatedly tried to equate the size of the DL/NW hub with the size in the US-Japan market and that is no more valid than saying that DL's market size at ATL is larger than AA's at DFW and MIA combined because they have that many more seats.

DL's presence at NRT and at ATL reflects huge amounts of connecting capacity; in the case of NRT, the connecting capacity will be removed but unless DL starts pulling US-NRT flights - and do it faster than other carriers- DL's share at NRT won't move.

DL's capacity across the Pacific has been very constant for the last several years because DL has added new flights that overflow NRT from SEA and DTW.

Kev,
your idea actually makes alot of sense and it is precisely what NW and DL have done. The 757 is used for intra-Asia flying because it is common with the 767 that flies the Pacific just as NW was able to use the 320 because of the commonality wiht the 330.

The problem is that most of the US gateways that have service to NRT also have service on other carriers or DL to other points in Asia; thus, DL is competing in markets against nonstop services even from the gateways. in markets that do not have any nonstop service, DL is competing via single connects.

The disadvantage has nothing to do with the equipment used but because a DL hub at NRT cannot compete against larger hubs in Asia or the US.

further, NRT has some of the highest landing fees so using large aircraft is a disadvantage for anyone that hubs there - and that includes AA/JL and NH/UA.

There was talk about DL codesharing /expanding codeshare within Asia on Skymark and IIRC ALPA gave some freedom for DL to do so. But Skymark also has intentions of flying to the US including JFK which is not a situation that is good for DL.

 

[700UW]

Delta Jumbo Jet Gets Rare Retirement Reprieve Ahead of 747’s End
 
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2015-01-14/delta-jumbo-jet-gets-rare-retirement-reprieve-ahead-of-747-s-end

 

[WorldTraveler]

doesn't hurt that the DL 744 is the largest aircraft in terms of seating capacity in the US carrier fleet.

use of the 744 on ATL-HNL returns the aircraft to one of its first post-merger routes. The economics of Hawaii flying look better on larger aircraft with lower fuel costs.