700UW said:
Let me type this S L O W L Y
The company by the provisions of the ATSB loan are prevented from filing a voluntary filing.
Three or more creditors can file a involuntary chapter 11 forcing the company into bankruptcy and the judge will have to appoint a trustee to run the company and the executives lose control.
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OR...
ATSB calls the loan on September 30th due to breach of covenants... US Airways repays the loan, and thus are no longer subject to its conditions... However, that leaves the company with almost $0 in the bank...
If you go with the End of June numbers, $975mil unrestricted cash, that means after paying off the $726mil ATSB-backed loan, UAIR has $249mil... Thats assuming UAIR does not burn through cash... But, the airline analyst community believes the company is burning cash (Jamie Baker said BK by the end of the year, remember?). Also, the unrestricted cash covenant is breached at $700mil unrestricted cash, and the AmEx financing is breached at $850mil. So if U does declare BK, its safe to assume its cash balance will be between $650mil and $850mil, meaning after paying off the ATSB, UAIR's cash balance will be something between $0 and $125mil
So now, UAIR can declare BK, with something less than $250mil unrestricted cash (probably less than $124mil) in the bank, and no ATSB to worry about... Keep in mind, the company went BK the first time with $500-$600mil unrestricted cash... Generally, you try to go BK with as much cash as possible.
OR
If UAIR declares voluntary BK with the ATSB-backed loans in place, they will breach the loan covenants... Fine, I don't dispute that. However, they are going to breach them anyway, and as far as I know, there are not "degrees of breach". Either you are in good standing or you are not. So I am not sure how much weight that covenant holds anyways, given the likelihood of breaching the unrestricted cash covenants and the EBITDAR-to-debt ratio covenants (per sfb's calculations on other threads).