Comparing top 60 PHL routes from 1999 to 2002

[AirplaneFan]

Below information compares the top 60 routes (passengers per day) from PHL in 3Q, 1999 and how it compared to the 3Q, 2002. Columns are the city paired with PHL, the largest carrier on the route in 1999, its marketshare, 1999 passengers per day, 1999 avg. one-way fare, 2002 passengers per day, 2002 avg. one-way fare and the net difference in revenue from 1999 to 2002.
The bottom line is that these routes produce $830,018 LESS REVENUE ON A DAILY BASIS. That equates to $76,361,683 for a quarter. And this is only looking at 60 cities out of one of U''s hubs. How much more revenue is lost in hubs/focal cities of LGA, BOS, DCA, PIT, CLT? Furthermore there is more revenue lost on connecting various cities together that have yields depressed because of low-fare carriers.
I understand that this $76M shortfall in revenues is not just a U problem, but its symbolic of problems in fortress hubs all over the U.S. None of these routes has Southwest as a competitor and few have AirTran. The reason for the shortfall is that the airlines have a cost structure that has outpaced the market.

CityST Lgst Carrier LgstMktShare 1999 Pass. /Day 1999 One-way Fare 2002 Pass. /Day 2002 One-way Fare Net Difference in Revenue
ATLANTA, GA DL 60.76 2317 121 2049.45 123.78 -$26,676
CHICAGO,
IL UA 34.83 2078 230 2367.6 157.71 -$104,546
BOSTON, MA US 95.21 1593 160 933.47 220.51 -$49,041
ORLANDO, FL US 79.85 1325 138 1928.15 111.12 $31,406
LOS ANGELES, CA US 35.86 1068 327 1406.19 226.99 -$30,045
SAN FRANCISCO, CA UA 35.16 1046 377 1273.91 247.14 -$79,508
DETROIT, MI NW 57.58 1022 118 602.17 214.33 $8,467
DALLAS, TX AA 55.67 925 305 999.78 238.69 -$43,488
LAS VEGAS, NV HP 34.85 906 182 1173.15 148.35 $9,145
PITTSBURGH, PA US 98.42 780 190 627.39 179.79 -$35,402
TAMPA, FL US 80.89 770 162 960.43 124.49 -$5,176
HOUSTON, TX CO 46.67 688 283 632.82 248.49 -$37,455
DENVER, CO UA 47.65 656 307 683.58 242.83 -$35,398
FT. LAUDERDALE, FL US 73.59 590 157 1117.93 119.59 $41,063
MINNEAPOLIS, MN NW 54.44 579 296 724.67 224.69 -$8,558
CHARLOTTE, NC US 94.22 506 250 324.78 307.56 -$26,611
MIAMI, FL US 45.89 502 167 473.36 164.25 -$6,085
PHOENIX, AZ US 40.31 490 263 509.78 190.19 -$31,915
SEATTLE, WA US 49.63 480 312 560.32 230.6 -$20,550
RALEIGH/DURHAM, NC US 74.66 453 202 469.45 182.09 -$6,024
ST. LOUIS, MO TW 58.19 401 276 414.23 248.98 -$7,541
NEW ORLEANS, LA US 66.98 399 168 383.04 146.23 -$11,020
INDIANAPOLIS, IN US 84.87 374 235 357.39 197.23 -$17,402
SAN DIEGO, CA US 38.46 373 308 460 267.02 $7,945
WEST PALM BEACH, FL US 81.5 353 161 356.52 128.43 -$11,045
JACKSONVILLE, FL US 77.39 349 168 350.32 145.95 -$7,503
CINCINNATI, OH DL 60.27 342 261 285.43 252.1 -$17,305
KANSAS CITY, MO US 74.18 339 244 317.39 216.06 -$14,141
MILWAUKEE, WI YX 54.68 325 206 313.91 164.81 -$15,214
CLEVELAND, OH US 48.67 323 281 250.86 275.7 -$21,601
NASHVILLE, TN US 80.56 293 222 213.15 247.29 -$12,336
COLUMBUS, OH US 91.74 287 242 330.97 175.87 -$11,246
Hartford, CT US 97.43 258 245 143.58 264.01 -$25,303
SALT LAKE CITY, UT DL 55.37 243 290 177.71 294.02 -$18,220
GREENSBORO, NC US 95.04 239 183 199.45 152.47 -$13,327
MEMPHIS, TN NW 68.47 223 214 246.19 188.25 -$1,377
FT. MYERS, FL US 81.41 223 147 230.97 125.85 -$3,713
PORTLAND, ME US 94.18 191 186 170.86 188.86 -$3,257
SANTA ANA, CA HP 25.1 182 360 186.73 247.36 -$19,330
PROVIDENCE, RI US 97.51 179 259 132.17 306.78 -$5,814
BUFFALO, NY US 95.09 177 209 115.1 260.32 -$7,030
RICHMOND, VA US 98.87 172 252 92.39 284.93 -$17,019
ROCHESTER, NY US 96.96 168 213 90 245.51 -$13,688
LOUISVILLE, KY US 79.79 162 214 136.3 223.64 -$4,186
MANCHESTER, NH US 97 159 222 112.06 282.98 -$3,587
PORTLAND, OR UA 33.03 156 331 178.26 248.2 -$7,392
NORFOLK, VA US 96.43 155 204 127.71 240.57 -$897
DAYTON, OH US 87.22 153 214 114.13 200.78 -$9,827
ALBUQUERQUE, NM TW 21.94 140 205 123.58 206.75 -$3,150
SAN ANTONIO, TX CO 37.83 135 271 162.17 232.23 $1,076
SAN JOSE, CA AA 28.92 132 404 97.93 303.92 -$23,565
AUSTIN, TX AA 37.22 124 362 127.28 283.33 -$8,826
ALBANY, NY US 97.2 124 234 71.19 251.93 -$11,081
SAVANNAH, GA US 47.11 120 152 142.06 113.92 -$2,057
CHARLESTON, SC US 75.46 118 191 95.54 205.82 -$2,874
GREENVILLE, SC US 77.26 117 258 94.78 237.93 -$7,635
SACRAMENTO, CA UA 38.8 117 324 118.26 251.11 -$8,212
WASHINGTON, DC US 78.33 114 178 40.54 210.36 -$11,764
KNOXVILLE, TN US 69.6 108 160 79.67 227.18 $819
BIRMINGHAM, AL US 65.96 103 243 77.93 270.12 -$3,979

 

[TomBascom]

They must be using an interesting definition of "one way fare". Because those numbers sure don't match what you'd actually pay if you tried to buy any such ticket between PHL and any of those cities where I've actually done so.

The numbers look a lot more consistent with connecting fares.

 

[USFlyer]

One way fare does not mean the actual one way fare you can purchase. I believe it takes into account what folks pay for roundtrips and divides in half (as a crude example).

 

[TomBascom]

It's interesting to add a couple of missing columns -- difference in passengers & difference in fare. Then slice it and dice it.

City          Rev Change      Passengers    Fare Change
=======================================================
Atlanta         $41,063        (267.55)       186.56 
Chicago         $31,406         289.60         76.78 
Boston 	        $9,145        (659.53)       143.92 
Orlando          $8,467         603.15        156.02 
Los Angeles      $7,945         338.19        (42.07)
San Francisco    $1,076         227.91        (93.67)
Detroit            $819        (419.83)       164.98 
...
Birmingham [img]http://www.usaviation.com/idealbb/images/smilies/2.gif[/img]

Interestingly there doesn't seem to be a cause and effect relationship between raising fares and a reduction in traffic -- if anything it looks like strong markets can take an increase in fares and that lower fares are a response to reductions in traffic (or perhaps a cause thereof?).

Of course that says nothing about profitability.

 

[mbmbbost]

Is it right to compare travel through PHL in 1999 and 2002? I'm not sure I understand how those figures are arrived at, but I believe a lot of the cities on the list were connected by nonstop flights in 1999, and in 2002 were only connected by flights through a hub, such as PHL. I just wondered if that should have a bearing on what conclusions one draws from the figures.

 

[TomBascom]

The very nature of the beast makes comparisons of subsets of the data kind of silly. The smaller the subset the sillier it gets. But the bright lights in CCY like to do it ("unprofitable routes") so what the heck, we might as well get to have some fun too