Airlines
The Airlines' New Solution To Pension Costs
Mark Tatge, 11.10.04, 6:00 AM ET
CHICAGO - UAL's United Airlines plan to dump $6 billion to $8 billion in pension liabilities could trigger a cascade of airline bankruptcies.
Strange as it seems, all eyes are on UAL's (otc: UALAQ - news - people ) Chief Executive Glenn Tilton. United's pensions, legacies from when the airline was a regulated carrier are a big drain on cash. Pension costs, including curtailment charges, amounted to $693 million last year.
Dumping the pension expense in bankruptcy greatly alters the carrier's cost structure. Paired with $1 billion in new cost savings, United would be able to significantly underprice its big-five legacy competition and narrow the 30% gap with low-cost carriers like Southwest Airlines (nyse: LUV - news - people ), JetBlue Airways (nasdaq: JBLU - news - people ), America West Holdings (nyse: AWA - news - people ) and AirTran Holdings (nyse: AAI - news - people ).
The airline industry already stands to lose $5.5 billion this year after being pounded by low-fare competitors and skyrocketing oil prices. Analysts are predicting that some 70% of the industry capacity could be in bankruptcy next year if current trends continue and oil prices stay above $45 per barrel.
All this worries executives at the other five big legacy carriers: AMR (nyse: AMR - news - people )--parent of American Airlines--Delta Air Lines (nyse: DAL - news - people ), Continental Airlines (nyse: CAL - news - people ), Northwest Airlines (nasdaq: NWAC - news - people ) and bankrupt US Airways Group (otc: UAIRQ - news - people ). Several of them are seriously discussing whether to file a pre-packaged bankruptcy to dump or restructure their own pension plans. No small task. Underfunded pensions total: $20 billion.
Pension Funding Status Overfunded And (Underfunded)
figures in millions 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
American ($346) ($703) ($1,940) ($3,434) ($2,664)
Continental (287) (282) (587) (1,190) (1,079)
Delta 148 1,135 (2,353) (4,907) (5,659)
Northwest 519 (486) (2,275) (3,950) (3,748)
United 1,320 (741) (2,520) (6,380) (6,156)
US Airways (722) (301) (2,344) (2,445) (922)
Total 632 (1,378) (12,019) (22,306) (20,228)
Source: Company reports and AirlineForecasts LLC.
Vaughn Cordle, who runs AirlineForecasts, says the figure is really closer to $30 billion since the industry has relied on outdated mortality data and has been too aggressive in its investment assumptions. The full impact of the pension deficit isn't even hitting all the carriers since they are able to defer a portion of that expense under an emergency law passed by Congress to help keep the industry solvent.
By Cordle's analysis, United could lower its 9.99 cent cost per available seat mile, or CASM, about half a cent, by discontinuing its pension plans. That may not seem like a lot. But Tilton won't stop there. After making $5 billion in cuts, Tilton has identified $755 million in labor cuts and another $655 million in non-labor cost savings beyond the pension savings. These cost cuts would drop United's CASM to 8.7 cents, making it competive with low-cost carriers, Cordle says.
Defined Benefit Plan Pension Expense (as of Dec. 31, 2003)
figures in millions Net Benefit Expense Available Seat Miles Benefit Cost Per ASM *
American** $635 164,700 $0.39
Continental 328 74,968 0.44
Delta**** 636 119,912 0.53
Northwest 491 88,572 0.55
United*** 693 135,867 0.51
US Airways 52 51,583 0.10
Total 2,835 635,602
* in cents per Available Seat Mile (ASM) ** $46 million curtailment charge included*** $125 curtailment charge included **** $47 million curtailment charge included Source: Company reports and AirlineForecasts LLC
Last week, United asked the bankruptcy court for permission to terminate its pension plans. Under federal bankruptcy law, a debtor has to negotiate in good faith with retirees and show that the termination is key to implementing a plan of reorganization, said Baker & McKenzie bankruptcy attorney Anthony Stamato.
That shouldn't be a problem for United. After being denied up to $2 billion in federally guaranteed loans three times., United has been unable to secure exit financing. United's huge pension liability, ($8 billion by conservative assumptions) was viewed as the major reason why the carrier's application was denied.
If United is given the green light to dump its plans, the airline will undoubtedly replace these plans with some sort of less costly 401(k) defined contribution plan funded by both employees and the airline. The old plans will be turned over to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.
Bear Stearns analyst David Strine sees a destructive domino effect if United gets permission to shed its pension bill. "Given that the industry has become a commodity business with no pricing power, what happens to costs inside bankruptcy must then be adopted by the players outside of bankruptcy," Strine wrote in a recent report.
Chris Steiner contributed to this report.