Citrus heads West

[funguy2]

PHL 6,188
Some might argue served via BWI. Others would tell you the ABE is on LUV's short-list due to proximity to PHL metro.

BOS 5,819 (PVD and MHT are own metro areas)
Definitely served by PVD and MHT despite the fact that statistics call them their own metro area.

ATL 4,112
No substantial regional drive cities with reasonable traffic... some rural traffic which might drive to ATL probably drives to BHM for LUV fares.

MSP 2,986
No substantial regional drive cities with reasonable traffic. Don't see Duluth, Rochester, MN or Eau Claire, WI on your list.

DEN 2,581
Within a 2 hour drive of COS. COS has a reasonable catchment + within a reasonable drive of COS.

For the above reasons, COS is believed to be on the short list. Although I have no knowledge of LUV's planning department, this has been a consistent and persistant industry rumor for some time... and seems to be within the way LUV does business.

Now back to the original topic: AirTran should get in on COS before LUV does for two primary and strategic reasons:

1) LUV comes into a market with instant brand recognition and community goodwill. These are things that AirTran would need more time to develop in a new market (although not impossible, look at their growth in BWI, PHL, and Florida as examples).

2) If AirTran wants to have a presence in the west, there are not too many untapped, non-hub and non-LUV markets, period. Particularly if they want to remain all B717. With a longer range aircraft, maybe ATL or MCO or BWI to LAX is possible. Not with the B717. From COS, AirTran could probably run a few flights to LAS, LAX, SFO, SAN, MDW, ATL, DFW.

Comment: Part of the reason WestPac failed is that they were flying B737's from COS to TUL, OKC, ABQ. Part of why they failed was fast growth. Part of why they failed was creating a commuter carrier, MAX. But what they succeeded at, was proving folks in COS will fly from COS for a lower fare, and that some folks will drive from DEN to use COS for a lower fare. Will LUV come to COS? Probably, and probably sooner rather than later. I think AirTran needs to beat LUV to the market, so that they can establish their niche before LUV, and its instant success arrives at COS.

If AirTran wants to hit the west coast, I think, they either need COS, or a longer range aircraft type. If they don't want access to the west coast, I think they can fly B717's around the East and Midwest and be very successful.

 

[UA777DEN]

BOI was inherited from Morris, and if growth rates of the 1990's are continued, by 2010 BOI will be at 631,000, just behind COS at 637,000.

The growth rates of the 1990's will not continue at the same rate. Sustained rapid growth for more than a decade is extremely rare nowadays. BOI's growth rate has already started to slow down. COS also saw a slowdown in growth after rapid growth during the 90's.

Las Vegas is currently the fastest growing city in the US. They've been growing at 80% per decade which is absolutely insane if you think about it. Denver which is the 5th fastest growing city is growing at roughly 32% per decade which is much more realistic.

If Las Vegas' growth rate continues at 80% per decade (which it won't), it will be larger than Denver by 2020.

Right now, Las Vegas' metro is about 1.5 million. Denver's metro is 2.7 million.

Regards

 

[funguy2]

Cosmo:

I either saw an article or on TV (don't remember which), an interview with the gentleman who often scouts new cities for LUV. They would not use his real name, and noted that he often travels to potential new cities without invitation, under an alias, and to different airports than the one being scouted. They also noted that the gentleman does not only scout the airport, but also the region, trying to get a feel for each city. Quite frankly, it sounded like LUV's on version of the CIA. Very secretive indeed. I think a lot of people (myself included) guess at what is at the top of LUV's list, but only a very few people know for sure.

 

[Cosmo]

UA777DEN:

I agree that there should be mutual respect in discussion forums such as this, where the whole rationale is to share information. And your point about being "interrogated" is well taken -- in re-reading my post, I can see where my tone could have been interpreted as demanding and even condescending to you personally. That was not my intention, and if you interpreted my post that way, I do apologize.

Let me also say that I never questioned the traffic and demographic information on COS provided by you (or anyone else) to support the contention that COS should be high on Southwest's list of potential expansion cities. I haven't done any research on the subject, and will thus defer to those who have done so.

That said, however, I do respectfully disagree with one part of your response to me:

[blockquote]
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On 1/13/2003 4:28:42 PM UA777DEN wrote:

It really doesn't matter WHERE I found this information out. This is a forum, the point of this forum is to share messages and accept the information that people give you.
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[/blockquote]
I would agree with you with regard to anything stated as one's opinion. But when items are stated as fact, I believe that it's not unreasonable to expect to be asked for the source of your information, especially if the discussion deals with a topic subject to intense speculation, such as this one. And as I noted in my previous post, I had not seen any attribution for your contention, stated as a fact, that COS was #4 on Southwest's expansion list. I was simply (if perhaps a bit too forcefully) asking you for the source of that information. And you now have provided it.

But you see, I also know a person who works at Southwest, in particular in their planning and scheduling department. He has told me that they NEVER, EVER give out information about the ranking of the carrier's potential expansion cities. Southwest is very secretive about this information, limiting the knowledge to only the more senior members of the department plus some key members of senior management. That's also why representatives of hopeful new cities never get invited into the department's office area, since there might be something on a computer screen, papers on somebody's desk, or a conversation going on elsewhere in the office discussing the merits of one new city versus another. And that level of secrecy is why I doubted that you really knew where COS stood on Southwest's expansion list.

In short, based on this information from a person I know and trust, that's the reason why I questioned your source's contention that COS is (or was at the time) #4 on the list of expansion cities. But I accept your explanation that you just relayed that information to readers on this board in good faith.

I hope this helps to explain the rationale for my initial post in this thread.

 

[UA777DEN]

Thank you for your reply Cosmos.

I understand that sources are needed as one can say absolutely anything.

But, if I showed the sources of everything I've said, my post would be twice as long and we would get nowhere.

Get where I'm coming from?

Anyways, that's all behind us now.

funguy2,

Very beautifully said. I would have said the exact things that you've said. The reason why Southwest doesn't serve all those large cities is simply because Southwest likes to avoid large, congested airports and they aim at 30 minute turnarounds. This is why COS is ideal for them. A nice, small little airport with there own little terminal (formerlly built for WestPac, never used) and virtually no congestion.

DEN, while not congested (yet) is very spread out and it's runways are 2 miles from the terminal which can make 30 minute turnaround times difficult.

But what they succeeded at, was proving folks in COS will fly from COS for a lower fare, and that some folks will drive from DEN to use COS for a lower fare.

Very well said. COS was incredibly crowded and the gates were actually busy. Those were good days.

Just for reference, COS exceeded 1.5 million passengers annually at the peak of Western Pacific's life. If they continued for a little longer, they could have reached 2 million passengers annually eventually.

Right now I think COS sees an average of just under 1 million passengers annually. Quite sad how they almost were going to have 2 million and now have just under 1 million.

That can change.

Western Pacific really was something, and if they were better managedd, expanded slower, and were more cautious when entering markets (such as TUL, OKC, etc.). They could have made it.

 

[7.5victim]

[blockquote]
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On 1/13/2003 604 PM Management Guru wrote:



[BLOCKQUOTE]I think that people sometimes forget 2 other factors that worked in WestPac's favor.

First, DIA had just opened with all of its opening problems. That drove people to try an alternative. Most of the early complaints are no longer heard.

Second, Frontier had also only been around for a couple of years and was a small company. Today it flies to what, 20 of Denver's top O&D markets and also to many of WN's cities from DEN.

Does that mean that COS is a bad choice for Southwest or AirTran? No. It simply means that there may be less pull from Denver residents than was seen in the WestPac days. [/BLOCKQUOTE]
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[/blockquote]


True, but don't forget that COS residents have an easier trip to the new DEN than Stapleton. Now that the E-470 toll road is open, I can make it from my grandfathers retirment castle on the north side of COS to DIA in an hour, without grossly exceeding the speed limit to boot. I still think you'll see LUV at COS eventually, but COS doesn't have the niche it once did.

 

[deelmakur]

AirTran is all about competing with Delta. To do that, you follow them into their bread and butter markets (excluding the hubs outside ATL). COS is a nice market, underserved since WP, and ripe for entry. Southwest is a brand. As a competitor, if you're smart, you stay away from them. If and when they come to COS, they will grab share immediately, regardless of how effectively someone like AirTran may have been in getting there first. I think they understand that.

 

[Irish Con]

Now thinking bout the subject what airports would work as good hubs for Aitran out west?Theres really not many places that already dont have a major player.But then again theve seemed to do just fine up against Delta.

 

[7.5victim]

[blockquote]
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On 1/20/2003 11:59:46 PM Irish Con wrote:

Now thinking bout the subject what airports would work as good hubs for Aitran out west? Theres really not many places that already dont have a major player.But then again theve seemed to do just fine up against Delta.
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[/blockquote]

I was wondering the same thing. The places that would make the most sense would see FL as a #3 hub or "focus city" carrier (DEN and SLC). Not sure the 717 has the range for PHX, but same thing there. STL and MCI are out because of the heavy WN presence, and OMA certainly isn't big enough. What about SAT? It's a bigger city than most people realize, has some big corporations (IE ClearChannel), and a lot of government. But again, the WN problem pops up. Looks like they'd be smart to continue to focus on the east coast and hammering US and DL, while waiting for UA to implode and open DEN up... Just my .02.

Anyone know where WN served from DEN before they pulled out of Stapleton?

 

[mga707]

[blockquote]
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On 1/24/2003 600 PM 7.5victim wrote:

Anyone know where WN served from DEN before they pulled out of Stapleton?


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[/blockquote]

Of course...DEN to ABQ and PHX, May 1983-Sep 86.

 

[N989AT]

You are right about the EA Retro look of C. From what I hear, those light fixtures were hand picked by Eastern Airlines for the C concourse. I like the way C Concourse looks. At least C-South isn't as dark as C-North. I'll post a trip report on the 16th of next month.

 

[Irish Con]

"I was wondering the same thing. The places that would make the most sense would see FL as a #3 hub or "focus city" carrier (DEN and SLC). Not sure the 717 has the range for PHX, but same thing there. STL and MCI are out because of the heavy WN presence, and OMA certainly isn't big enough. What about SAT? It's a bigger city than most people realize, has some big corporations (IE ClearChannel), and a lot of government. But again, the WN problem pops up. Looks like they'd be smart to continue to focus on the east coast and hammering US and DL, while waiting for UA to implode and open DEN up... Just my .02" True SAT (San Antonio)has well over a million people,and alot of major corporations and we may be getting a new Toyota plant very soon.But the Southwest problem comes up. I travel out of SAT alot and thoe I do not travel Southwest hardly ever they do have the majority of the pax,and they have the most destinations out of town.I dont think it would be that smart of Airtran to go after one of Southwest first three destinations.I wish Airtran would look into SAT as atleast a "Focus" city but it wont happen.

 

[7.5victim]

[blockquote]
----------------

Of course...DEN to ABQ and PHX, May 1983-Sep 86.

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[/blockquote]


Thanks. It was before my time, and I wasn't sure if DEN was a WN station, or one they inherited from Morris Air.