Citrus heads West

[Cart Pusher]

UA777DEN-

Additionally, I provide the following reading for your pleasure:

Over the last year, COS has had a steady decrease in the number of enplaned passengers 2003 over 2002. For the first 10 months of 2003 these are the figures that I saw, all listed by the way at the COS airport website, which I've listed below.

Jan -4.9%
Feb -1.3%
Mar -3.6%
Apr -2.4%
May -1.9%
Jun -2.6%
Jul -3.0%
Aug -3.9%
Sep -1.6%
Oct -0.6%

www.springsgov.com/SectionIndex.asp?SectionID=11

 

[UA777DEN]

For what it's worth, however, if COS is #4 on this "list" (that people talk about, yet nobody ever really has posted anywhere) and WN isn't planning on adding any new cities this year, then when does COS look forward to this new service? If it was such a goldmine, wouldn't WN want to move in quick and get some of the $$$$ before anyone else?

If you ask me Cart Pusher, #4 on the list IS considered a Gold Mine considered that there are 150 other cities begging for Southwest service.

Regarding the 3 ailing carriers that have come to COS. That doesn't mean squat my friend.

Whether they are ailing or not, does not prove anything about the COS market. The point is 3 airlines came to COS in a period of 6 months, whether they are ailing or not doesn't matter.

Great Plains just announced service to AUS. Now is AUS a bad market because it attracted an ailing carrier? Interesting....

The point is COS is a good sized market, but comparing it to DEN is simply absurd. Of course Delta has much more air service and flies widebodies to DEN. But you are comparing an elephant with a mouse.

Of course Alaska is going to choose DEN over COS for there FIRST Colorado destination. It's only logical. Same goes with Spirit.

AirTran decided to focus instead on continueing expansion on the East Coast which is why they put off COS. It had absolutely nothing to do with COS itself.

Why doesn't COS offer incentives? I don't know, why don't you ask them. Possibly they don't have the funds to offer incentives. COS is not a large city like DEN and therefore there budget is much smaller. That's probably why.

Maybe one day they will offer incentives? They should.

When do I expect Southwest to come into COS? Probably 2005 since it's #4 on the list and since they won't be adding any cities this year. If in 2004 they decide to add more than 2-3 cities, then maybe we'll see COS in 2004.

It'll be either 2004 or 2005.

Regarding those passenger figures. Have you taken a look at them? Have you noticed any pattern?

As in the figures improving?

Allegiant Air is no longer in Chapter 11, they filed Chapter 11 way before they ever thought of serving COS.

There aren't many other kinds of carriers that can go into COS except for low-fare ones. All the majors serve COS already (except US Airways and that's understandable).

COS is a low-fare market because DEN is north.

Western Pacific had to be one of the fastest growing airlines in history. In a year or so, they had nearly 30 aircraft. What happens when an airline grows too quickly? They run into trouble. That's why they failed. That's why they thought it would be wise to move to DEN when it turned out to be a very bad mistake.

I read a lot about the COS market, Cart Pusher. From various airline analysts and they ALL have said that COS is an underserved market. Underserved for 2 reasons, it's close proximity to DEN, the demise of Western Pacific put a bad image on them making them less attractive to airlines.

One thing is for sure and all airline analysts I have read about said this, Southwest WILL come to COS. It's a matter of time. They have other things in mind first, then comes COS.

COS is on it's way back now, the days of WestPac are being forgotten.

You ignored what I said about National Airlines. They failed and they were hubbed in LAS. Does that make LAS a bad market? Did they overestimate the market? Not at all, they were an extremely poorly run airline. A badly managed airline. Same story with WestPac.

For comparisons sake Cart Pusher. COS is a much bigger city than BOI. Yet look at the amount of service BOI gets?

By the way, there is talk that Northwest Airlines will add DTW service from COS soon.

I guess they're overestimating the market, right? Of course, you know better then them......

 

[UA777DEN]

Not that it really matters but Delta is adding a 3rd flight from DFW. I guess they're overestimating the market.

They should know better.......

Not to mention America West bringing back mainline service....

 

[mturpiz]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 1/12/2003 1:17:29 PM UA777DEN wrote:

Not that it really matters but Delta is adding a 3rd flight from DFW. I guess they're overestimating the market.

They should know better.......

Not to mention America West bringing back mainline service....
----------------
[/blockquote]

Delta is actually cutting seats 47% between DEN and DFW. Currently there are two mainline flights one way and three the other. Instead they are dropping mainline and flying 4x round trips with CRJ staring in April. It's part of a huge restructuring at DFW.

 

[mturpiz]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 1/12/2003 1:17:29 PM UA777DEN wrote:

Not that it really matters but Delta is adding a 3rd flight from DFW. I guess they're overestimating the market.

They should know better.......

Not to mention America West bringing back mainline service....
----------------
[/blockquote]

Delta is actually cutting seats 47% between DEN and DFW. Currently there are two mainline flights one way and three the other. Instead they are dropping mainline and flying 4x round trips with CRJ staring in April. It's part of a huge restructuring at DFW.

 

[UA777DEN]

mturpiz,

I'm not talking about DEN, I'm talking about COS.

And yes, Delta is dropping mainline service to DEN along with several other cities such as AUS and SAT.

They are shifting resources to ATL and CVG.

 

[yeogeo]

[[blockquote]
----------------
rumorboy, 1/10/03:
Everbody lately has been questioning the range of the 717. As of matter of fact Airtran actually has a longer flight in its system. MKE-FLL is 1080 miles and the ATL-DEN is 1040 miles
----------------
[/blockquote]

Just as a point of interest... I believe MKE-FLL is not currently flown except with a stop in ATL (& with no direct flight on the return). So, as far as active routes, would then the MKE-MCO flight be the longest?

yeo

 

[yeogeo]

oops>posted twice>sorry

 

[Cosmo]

Oops, double post here, too. My bad.

 

[Cosmo]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 1/12/2003 1:17:12 PM UA777DEN wrote:

When do I expect Southwest to come into COS? Probably 2005 since it's #4 on the list and since they won't be adding any cities this year. If in 2004 they decide to add more than 2-3 cities, then maybe we'll see COS in 2004.

It'll be either 2004 or 2005.
----------------
[/blockquote]
Several times in this thread you have referred to COS being #4 on Southwest's list of new cities. What are you basing that assertion on? Because, with all due respect, unless you are in Southwest's planning and scheduling department or are one of the carrier's senior officers, you really don't know the potential ranking or timing of any new cities that Southwest might add to its system in the future. Even if it's true that COS WAS #4 on Southwest's list of expansion cities at some point in the past, there is a good chance that it isn't in that position now. It could be higher or it could be lower, since the carrier is constantly re-evaluating the relative strengths of potential cities in terms of changes in each city's traffic levels, fare levels, airport operating costs and other carrier flight schedules, among other things.

Having said that, it may indeed be true that COS is very high on Southwest's list of new cities, and I'm not suggesting that such a ranking shouldn't be the case. What I AM saying is that, at least as far as I have seen on these boards, you have not given any indication to date that you are truly in a position to know precisely where COS stands with Southwest regarding potential new service. If that is not correct, please explain why.

 

[UA777DEN]

Also, I read a few months ago that about only 25% of Colorado Springs residents use COS for there air travel needs. The remaining 75% drive 1 hour up to DEN.

So who uses COS? 25% of COS residents and outsiders who's destination is Colorado Springs (even most outsiders use DEN still).

So you don't interrogate me again, I read this in the Colorado Springs Gazette.

Clearly this shows why COS has been dropping since the days of Western Pacific. The rise of Frontier Airlines in Denver and other low-fare carriers has lead to COS passengers fleeing to DEN to grab those low-fares.

The average fare in COS is considerably higher than the average fare in DEN.

Although that's beginning to change a little bit. When Vanguard was still around, fares in COS were actually quite good that passenger figures rose quite a bit since they began service.

America West has decent fares from COS which is why they've been doing very well.

Other than that, there is not much reason to use COS except for it's convenience. Frequency, routes, service, and fare options are much much better in DEN.

If Southwest comes to COS, this will clearly change. Infact, DEN will suffer a little bit because they rely greatly on Colorado Springs residents as well, not just Denver residents.

Regards

 

[UA777DEN]

Cosmo,

Before I go on, do you think I am lying? Do you think I just made up that COS is #4 on the list? Is that how you treat others on the board? It really doesn't matter WHERE I found this information out. This is a forum, the point of this forum is to share messages and accept the information that people give you. Not flame them.

To answer your question I got this info from a person I know who works for Southwest. There was a discussion about this issue in Airliners.net posted a several months ago. You could do search and find all the posts about Southwest. It's from several months ago so it will be hard to find. But in nearly EVERY Southwest post brought up there, there is always something about COS.

Your right, COS may now be higher or lower on the list. But there aren't too many cities left in the US that aren't served by Southwest that are as big as COS.

Colorado Springs is not a small city. It's considered a medium-sized city. For comparisons sake, it's bigger than Boise (BOI) (MUCH bigger).

Not to mention that Southwest serves many much smaller cities such as Lubbock, Texas.

There are also several articles in the Colorado Springs Gazette about Southwest and many analysts state there views and talk about Southwest including Mike Boyd.

Now again, lets have a mutual respect in this disucussion forum and learn to accept the information that others say. That's what forums all about. I'm only contributing to the forums and there is no need to interrogate me.

I never asked for the sources of ANY information that other posters have posted. I simply accepted what they had to say whether I think it's true or false.

 

[mturpiz]

35 largest US metro areas not served by Southwest, based on 2000 census data. Population is in thousands.

PHL 6,188
BOS 5,819 (PVD and MHT are own metro areas)
ATL 4,112
MSP 2,986
DEN 2,581
SJU 2,450 (yes, this is domestic)
PIT 2,358
CVG 1,979
MKE 1,689
CLT 1,499
GSO 1,251
MEM 1,135
ROC 1,098
GRR 1,088
RIC 996
GSP 962
DAY 950
FAT 922
HNL 876 (AQ flies 737's to mainland daily)
SYR 732
TYS 687
BFL 661
ABE 637
MDT 629
AVP 624
TOL 618
BTR 602
YNG 694
SRQ 589
SCK 563
CHS 549
ICT 545
MOB 540
CAE 536
COS 516

Most of the smaller cities WN serves like AMA are a legacy of the intra-Texas days. BOI was inherited from Morris, and if growth rates of the 1990's are continued, by 2010 BOI will be at 631,000, just behind COS at 637,000.

 

[funguy2]

Sorry... posted twice.

 

[Management Guru]

[P]
[BLOCKQUOTE]I think that people sometimes forget 2 other factors that worked in WestPac's favor. [BR][BR]First, DIA had just opened with all of its opening problems. That drove people to try an alternative. Most of the early complaints are no longer heard.[BR][BR]Second, Frontier had also only been around for a couple of years and was a small company. Today it flies to what, 20 of Denver's top O&D markets and also to many of WN's cities from DEN.[BR][BR]Does that mean that COS is a bad choice for Southwest or AirTran? No. It simply means that there may be less pull from Denver residents than was seen in the WestPac days. [/BLOCKQUOTE]