AWA International

[lowfareair]

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On 9/21/2002 1:43:35 AM mga707 wrote:

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On 9/20/2002 5:32:48 PM UA777DEN wrote:

mga707,

Population does not determine a market size.

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Hate to belabor a point, but that is really an odd assertion. What else could possibly determine market size OTHER than the population of a given market?

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Simple: demographics(for example JFK-MIA/SJU is HUGE due to a large Hispanic population), economy, companies headquartered there, diversity of population, attractions, etc.

 

[UA777DEN]

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On 9/21/2002 1:43:35 AM mga707 wrote:

Hate to belabor a point, but that is really an odd assertion. What else could possibly determine market size OTHER than the population of a given market?

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The market size. How many people want to visit it is what determines the demand of a route. A great example I think is Salt Lake City versus Kansas City.

Kansas City has a population of 1.7 million while Salt Lake City has a population of 1.33 million. However, Salt Lake City is a considerably larger market than Kansas City for several reasons. Salt Lake City is a place where people want to visit. It's the capital of the Mormon religion, it's a gateway to some of nature's amazing wonders such as Zion National Park, and Bryce Canyon. Utah has the highest concentration of National Parks in the US. More than any other state. Salt Lake City is also the gateway to some great skiing such as Park City and Deer Valley. All these things make Salt Lake City a larger market than Kansas City.

Kansas City isn't really a tourist destination. There isn't anything in Kansas City that will attract tourists unless they just want to see the city. So only business travelers and locals will be traveling to Kansas City while Salt Lake City has the benefit of lots of tourism, and of course it's the Mormon Capital of the world which actually what makes up most of Salt Lake City's market demand. Also internationally, Salt Lake City stands out in the world much much more than Kansas City does. Again, because it's the Capital of the Mormon religion.

Infact, a while ago British Airways was even evaluating the possibility of a Salt Lake City flight while they never really looked into Kansas City. Salt Lake City might have a London flight in about 10 years or so. Although from a study done a while ago, Salt Lake City could support a couple flights to London.

For it's population. The Salt Lake City market is enormous.

Regards

 

[mga707]

OK, UA777, I will gladly cede the point to you.

However...I will quibble with one point of your last post.
It's a bit of a stretch, considering the driving distances involved, to call SLC a gateway to Bryce and Zion NP's.
LAS is a much closer 'gateway' to both parks, along with the rest of southern Utah, than is SLC.
SLC is actually as close to Grand Teton and Yellowstone as it is to Bryce and Zion.
I know, your average idiot domestic tourist probably never leaves the Strip when visiting Vegas, but lots of those 'furriners' do! Go to any of the parks in the summer and you'll hear lots of German and French being spoken...
(Personally, I consider Vegas to be the 'gateway' to death Valley and Area 51!)

 

[UA777DEN]

mga707,

That is true. Bryce and Zion are both closer to Las Vegas than Salt Lake City.

However, like I said earlier. Utah has the highest concentration of National Parks. Don't forget the Arches National Park full of natural bridges near the Colorado border. It's one of the most popular national parks in the nation. It's not too terribly far from Salt Lake City. It's right next to Moab.

And one who visits Arches National Park is likely to go down to Bryce and Zion aswell.

Like you mentioned, Salt Lake City is also close to Grand Teton National Park. It's also somewhat close to Yellowstone National Park. About a day drive.

But what really makes Salt Lake City's market size relatively large is it's the Mormon capital. That's the #1 reason.

Regards

 

[mga707]

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On 9/22/2002 2:35:28 PM UA777DEN wrote:

mga707,

That is true. Bryce and Zion are both closer to Las Vegas than Salt Lake City.

However, like I said earlier. Utah has the highest concentration of National Parks. Don't forget the Arches National Park full of natural bridges near the Colorado border. It's one of the most popular national parks in the nation. It's not too terribly far from Salt Lake City. It's right next to Moab.

And one who visits Arches National Park is likely to go down to Bryce and Zion aswell.

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...and Canyonlands, Capitol Reef, Cedar Breaks, Natural Bridges, Mesa Verde, Hovenweep, etc., etc.
Been there, done 'em all. One of the all-time fantastic trips!
Didn't use either SLC or LAS as an air gateway', though--drove all the way up and back.

 

[UA777DEN]

mga707,

I have only been to Bryce and Zion in Utah. I've been to Mesa Verde though.

All done by driving aswell.

 

[lowfareair]

I was at Mesa Verde this summer. Got to see the remnants of the fire. Dead trees and ash for as far as I could see at one point.

 

[barbee tantrum]

I was under the impression that this thread was about international routes for America West. Now it has digressed to Mesa Verde and what not. Let's get back on track, people!

 

[sfb]

Actually, if you want to get technical, SLC is *not* a larger market for O&D travel than MCI; in 2001, MCI had 9.00 million O&D passengers while SLC was several percent lower at 8.41 million. I'd also add that SLC, like DEN, has higher O&D passenger counts than metro areas with comparable or larger sizes and fare levels owing to its relative isolation geographically. There are few large cities within convenient/competitive driving distance of either. Related to that is the fact that SLC has a far larger service area than MCI; after all, it's the most convenient airport for the broad majority of the 2.2+ million Utahns. I do agree that SLC also benefits from greater appeal to tourists.

One of the most important factors in market size (not mentioned) is the average fare level! That's why BUF has comparable O&D passenger numbers to CLT, in spite of serving a metro area with 80% fewer people (or why RDU draws nearly twice as many O&D passengers as CLT while also serving a smaller metro area).

 

[FrugalFlyer]

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On 9/18/2002 8:56:16 PM Columbia blue wrote:

Actually motnot...I would add 2 more canadian destinations..Hamilton, Ontario to CMH on an RJ..pretty good sized place (and a Westjet hub)...so perhaps some feed there for Columbus....and Winnipeg which is kind of like Denver...i.e. a big city in the middle of nowhere...(nowhere in this case meaning no other large cities within driving distance). Ignoring COS for the moment.....A PHX-Winnipeg service would go over well I think..Hmmm...I'm going to have to learn these Canadian city codes...
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In terms of Canadian destinations, I think it may be more beneficial for AWA to concentrate on YYZ, YUL and YVR markets first, before going to other (secondary) cities.

Hamilton, IMHO is a weird market. The population is there, but it has never been able to draw people away from YYZ. I think part of the problem was that the airport is not coveniently located/connected to the highway system. I think road improvements were recently made, but I remember going there in the mid 1990s - the airport is located outside Hamilton in the middle of nowhere. If I'm not mistaked, USAir at one time had service to PIT. Then GreyhoundAir made it its eatern hub (sort of, I think all of their flights were westbound only).

WestJet seems to be doing well there, but it may have to do with the recent improvements to the road access from the major highways to the airport. Given all that, I still think it is easier (more convenient)to get to Pearson (YYZ)from Hamilton by car/bus/train/shuttle service than to Hamilton International Airport.

 

[UA777DEN]

No way will America West fly to YUL. YUL will come WAY after YWG comes.

Montreal is not that large of a market anymore (it's shrinking) and most of that market is to the East.

Air Canada is having difficulty filling up it's LAX flight. American Airlines I heard is not doing too well on DFW-YUL and same with Continental on IAH-YUL.

Don't count on this route coming anytime soon. It won't happen for a long time.

Regards

 

[Chicken Taco]

YHM is probably out of the question, too. It's an odd market due to it's proximity to YYZ. Being that YYZ is on the west side of town, it's only 35 miles or so from downtown Hamilton. The only service in YHM these days is WestJet. Going back a while CHQ did 4 or 5 daily USAir runs to PIT, but that died a slow death with the end of our J-31's. Tried it on the SAAB for a year or so, but it's hard to make money selling 3 or 5 seats a flight. Out average Pax load was less than 10, and our biggest customer was a cargo company based at YHM that was sending crews to USAir's 727 sim in PIT, so those aren't even repeatable customers with a CMH run. The terminal was a dump, the location awful, and there's no choice of service. It reminds me of some of the failed alternate airport concepts such as Gary, In or Scott/MidAmerica, Ill. Seemed like a good idea at the time, but except for the Westie Pax, everyone else just tolerates the inconvenience and torture of the big hub to get the selection from YYZ..

 

[Junebug172]

Cancun would be nice, but you forget that there is quite a bit of water between us. America West's operation does not allow it to stray too far off the coast, which is why we fly along the gulf coast on our way to MIA and MCO instead of shooting straight across the water.

My understanding is that the slides on the aircraft have to be certified and maintained for overwater ops as well as a a training program for crew. We currently have neither in place and I don't see us spending the money any time soon to do so, especially with all the cat II/III certification going on now as well as the ACARS implementation.