I have to wonder how many more layoffs does the company have to announce before Tulsa catches on that the company does this just to get a bunch of guys they just screwed over to bend over backwards for them. The last thing that the company wants to do is dump young workers that they have trained and now have experience on the market. Tulsa will shrink, and sometimes the rate at which it shrinks will exceed attrition which I figure will steadily climb every year starting at around 5%. But that likely wont be a factor until more 80s go away. So figure SIS or not they will likely lose around 200 guys this year, if they need to shed 200 more they will be a little more generous with the incentives, or they can cut the OT but RIFs is the last thing AA wants.
The big "oh we have 400 guys ready to bump the line had zero effect on the line. The company really does not want to dump 400 OH guys, qualified or not, on the line, because for sure the guys they bump, they guys who already sat though all the Gen Fam classes and just came up to speed, will never come back, Jet Blue, UAL even SWA will pick them up, and they all pay much better than AA, none of them only offer one week of Vacation, Jet Blue starts them off with four weeks.
The fact is no matter what hoops you guys jump through the results will be the same. When they can afford to shed workers they will target the senior guys because thats where they save the most money, plus those guys wont likely turn up at competitors. AA has us locked into bottom of the industry wages, benefits and working conditions, the harder it is for their competitors to pick up mechanics the better it is for them, dumping young workers is counter productive, it raises AA's unit costs for labor plus it makes new hires available for competitors and allows them to lower their unit cost for labor.
So yes Tulsa will shrink but more than likely nobody will see a RIF, if they do it will more than likely be driven by a shortage on the line. An attempt by the company to force more Junior workers to fill vacancies they cant fill on the line, with competitors paying much better, offering double the Vacation, sick and Holiday pay than AA is offering AA basically has two very finite pools to draw mechanics, Ramp upgrades, and Eagle. They slashed the ramp, so future supply from there will dry up soon . That pretty much leaves OH.