Perhaps this thread and the merger – if it happens - have been poisoned so badly by another opportunity to sling dirt but I’ll try and refocus on the topic itself.
By definition of “uncompetitive” the people/organizations that could be most hurt by the merger are the ones who are against it, or at least their government representations acting for them.
I suppose you mean Delta, though, since there are a number of articles that say that it was DL’s triple miles promo that Parker didn’t like which led to the chain of emails inside US complaining about DL’s actions and proposing that one day consolidation would stop that all from happening. That email chain was forwarded to DL execs, presumably Richard Anderson, according to at least one article which said that the DL exec replied to Parker saying the email was inappropriate and was being forward to the company’s chief counsel.
Whether DL sent it to the DOJ is unknown but the DOJ can and does fight anticompetitive actions whether a merger is involved or not. Further, if DL forwarded it to the DOJ, they probably did so to make certain that DL wasn’t later accused of colluding with US at some later point if the email surfaced. It is also possible that the DOJ flagged US and Parker at that point and began to demand copies of emails and other documents even before the merger application was filed with the DOJ.
Thus, for Parker to have been informed that a competitor was forwarding an email which another airline exec deemed to be unacceptable to their legal department should have raised all kinds of flags to Parker and anyone else at US who knew about it. To believe that denial of the merger came out of the blue when the DOJ could well have had an antitrust case open is a little hard to believe.
What can’t be denied is that US has locked itself into a business plan that originated from America West which involved bottom fishing for revenue from other carriers’ top markets, locking US into a profile of having lower revenues than their legacy airline peers, thus providing “justification” to pay below average labor rates.
Let's also be clear that AA, despite being smaller, has not resorted to a strategy of undercutting its competitors in its key markets as US has done. The prospects for AA based on its size and pricing and network strategies is very different than they are for US.
Desperate to end the cycle, Parker voiced continuous need for mergers in the industry and went so far as to send an email to the CEO of one of US’ chief rivals asking them to reduce competition. Is it any surprise that a company that US preyed on for years didn’t miss an opportunity to let the DOJ in on the little secret that Parker thought would just be guy talk over the bathroom stalls, even if their larger motive was to make sure that the recipient of the e-mail stayed out of hot water with the DOJ?
It is VERY, VERY possible that not approving the merger will be a small part of the ramifications of these newly released emails which the DOJ might have known around for years with effects felt throughout the executive ranks of US and AA, if the people there who wrote those emails are still around.
The fact that HP/US execs who wrote those emails would end up running the new AA is precisely why the DOJ decided they cannot allow the mindset that was expressed in the emails to be implanted in a larger, more concentrated industry.
AA and US lawyers and a lot of analysts will try to argue all kinds of other issues without admitting that these emails are likely the key evidence the DOJ needs to block the merger unless drastic, sweeping changes are made in AA/US mgmt and/or unless controls are in place to ensure the type of thing discussed in the emails never has the opportunity to become reality.