WorldTraveler said:
There is a shortage of pilots, Eagle pilots want to play tough, and there is no other carrier or source of pilots that can quickly fix the pilot shortage.
Both Republic and Skywest have made comments in the past few days that they're not experiencing a shortage of pilots due to the new FAA standards, but that they're admittedly not finding as many who meet their own hiring standards. If they hire a few folks they wouldn't have a year ago, they can meet their commitments.
Assuming Parker follows thru, the majors might cherry pick a few guys that would have gone there anyway, but the rest will wind up going to work somewhere. Most likely, they'll wind up at PSA, Republic, Mesa, or Skywest. If they didn't like what AA was offering, they're probably not going to be too happy at those other carriers.
WorldTraveler said:
This just adds one more major strategic challenge to Parker's plate.
Perhaps, but it's one they knew was likely to happen, and I'd be willing to bet the contingency plan has been sitting on a shelf since before the bankruptcy filing.
Planning for events like grounding an specific aircraft fleet or an entire regional are one of the reasons the scheduling guys have doomsday models. Nobody wants to see those things happen, but you can bet your last pão de queijo that AA planned for this before going in with a LAFO.
Worst case, AA winds up putting some 319's into markets which could support two a day instead of 3 or 4 70 seaters, and they start paring back fourth and third tier cities who have service to multiple hubs. A few of the tier four cities get eliminated altogether.
Heck, it even gives Parker cover to back out of some of the agreements to the states on maintaining service levels... labor disputes fall under force majeure, and there isn't an AG who would be able to argue otherwise. Those promises were largely unenforceable to begin with.