AA Terminating 777 Leases

[StraaightTaalk]

Well, that is where the employees of AA was "mentally challenged"... Thats all they have to do is threaten you and you bend over??? It doesn't take a professional poker player to see which card they will play this time.. I bet if they tell you they are going to throw your retirement under the bus, you will bend over again, and with a smile on your face... You see, you should have told them to eat worms the first time around, you are ultimately digging your own grave... We will see what you get "back" this time... i would bet... Nothing at most.

So bitter and so obsessed with AA.

So sad.

Get some professional help. I am sure your local EAP department would be of assistance.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Don't feed the troll....


Maark, the employees are not done giving by any means. Bankruptcy won't be a threat this time -- it will probably happen, and my guess is the employees will probably have once chance to come to a consensual agreement before AMR files for arbrogation of the contracts.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Jesus...eolesen..........................It's best(for your safety) if your sitting down, before you read what I'm about to post !!

With a breaking yahoo news story today at noon time, that Oil "officially" has crossed the triple digit mark, and Everyones Stocks are dropping "faster than a gals drawers in the Red Lite Zone".....I AGREE with you....100% !!!!

The ONLY thing that really tweaks my curiosity, is the almost $7B in cash ?????????

So assuming that your assumtions about AA will be correct(and I think they are), obviously AA could lose the $7b paying off creditors if they GO....into BK.

But now a specific question:

How could AA BEST utilize the $$$$ if they avoid BK(again).....Because of Significant concessions from the unions ?????

 

[whatkindoffreshhell]

Well, that is where the employees of UA was "mentally challenged"... Thats all they have to do is threaten you and you bend over??? It doesn't take a professional poker player to see which card they will play this time.. I bet if they tell you they are going to throw your retirement under the bus, you will bend over again, and with a smile on your face... You see, you should have told them to eat worms the first time around, you are ultimately digging your own grave... We will see what you get "back" this time... i would bet... Nothing at most.

There is single typo I inserted in the above quote. See if you can find it.

This troll is not even amusing anymore. Every time he opens his mouth he proves he's not a UA F/A as claimed.

BTW, ain't nobody getting rid of 777s anywhere soon. Moneymakers.

 

[FWAAA]

AA doesn't lease any of its 777s. All owned (encumbered, of course).

 

[eolesen]

The ONLY thing that really tweaks my curiosity, is the almost $7B in cash ?????????

So assuming that your assumtions about AA will be correct(and I think they are), obviously AA could lose the $7b paying off creditors if they GO....into BK.

Not necessarily. NWA filed for bankruptcy with between $1.5B and $2B in cash.

I've said it several times before --- AA could go in with a pre-packaged bankruptcy filing, with all or part of the $7B designated as operating cash... That would eliminate the need for debtor in possession (DIP) financing. In a pre-packaged filing, all of the debtors who would presumably be the secured creditors committee agree to the terms in advance. It's not done very often, but in the case of a corporation who isn't in denial about their future, it usually goes quicker and less painfully for the existing management.

 

[Maark767]

Well, that is where the employees of AA was "mentally challenged"... Thats all they have to do is threaten you and you bend over??? It doesn't take a professional poker player to see which card they will play this time.. I bet if they tell you they are going to throw your retirement under the bus, you will bend over again, and with a smile on your face... You see, you should have told them to eat worms the first time around, you are ultimately digging your own grave... We will see what you get "back" this time... i would bet... Nothing at most.

First of all things are ran much differently here than they are at UAL.... So please....
Secondly we took the cuts in 2003 to avoid BK, the contract we voted in was much better than the one we would have gotten in BK... We had no power to say eat worms, telling them to eat worms would have forced us into BK and we know what BK does to the labor contracts... so with them taking all the bonuses, it has pushed everyones butttons beyond belief.... Like I said good luck asking for anything bAAck....

 

[Maark767]

Don't feed the troll....


Maark, the employees are not done giving by any means. Bankruptcy won't be a threat this time -- it will probably happen, and my guess is the employees will probably have once chance to come to a consensual agreement before AMR files for arbrogation of the contracts.

Well the threat of BK worked once with getting the employees to take big pay cuts... it WONT work again...trust me...
AA has told us that BK is not going to happen, they will never loose control of the company.
They will sell A/C and downsize b4 they file BK ... 7B will buy them alot of time...
AA is prepared for this downturn in many ways....

 

[czerny]

[quote name='donttouchthebeauty' date='Jan 1 this all to well, we saw honolulu - osaka canned to make room for new china service at SFO.. This is just one of many changes that i am sure you will see though...
[/quote]

What new China service in SFO? To where? Flown by American? If so, when? I know AA is supposed to have ORD-PKG in 09 but didn't hear anything about any Chinese mainland flights out of SFO. We have a lot of Chinese speakers in ORD that would love to not commute from the west coast.

 

[Maark767]

I think the post was referring to UAL not AA... AA has no plans for China out of SFO....

 

[eolesen]

AA has told us that BK is not going to happen, they will never loose control of the company.
They will sell A/C and downsize b4 they file BK ... 7B will buy them alot of time...
AA is prepared for this downturn in many ways....

Perhaps, but a few facts....

First of all, nobody interested in buying AC of AA's vintage right now. The 762's are quite long in the tooth, as are the bulk of the 757 and 763s. The 737's are needed for their fuel economy, as are the 777's.


Second of all, there's little left to sell that isn't already encumbered by mortgages. AA would have to buy their way out.


Last, $7B might seem to buy a lot of time, but with oil officially breaking the $100 barrier today (closed at $99.62), and having stayed above $90 for the past month, it's not going to buy as much time as it would have four years ago.

Keep in mind that 2007's fuel bill will be approx $6B (AMR uses about 750M gallons per quarter, and estimated a weighted cost of approx $2/gal). If you assume that price to be $2.30/gallon going forward, that's a $7B fuel bill in 2008.



Going in with a prepackaged filing greatly reduces the chance of AMR losing control.


Bankruptcy would allow AA to get out from underneath at least 100 MD80's with leases expiring in 2010 thru 2015, and another 50 or so MD82's with leases running thru 2022 (former TW).

It would also allow them to get out of 21 of the A300 leases, which expire between June 2008 and August 2011. IIRC, there are also a handful of F100s which are stored at MHV but still on lease until 2014.


Then there's the labor agreements....... AA has all three up for renewal, and all three unions have made promises to their members that AMR can't possibly meet.

2001 was a perfect storm driven to a large degree by the burst of the technology bubble, and made worst by terrorism and sustained somewhat by fears of a SARS pandemic.

2008 is looking to be another perfect storm, but this time being driven by oil, and to a lesser degree, the burst of the housing & mortgage bubble. Throw in fear of an avian flu pandemic for good measure.


If AMR is well prepared for that, then I guess I don't see how. Sure, they've got a lower debt load than they did three years ago, but there are still serious systemic issues with regard to labor costs and fleet mix, and they've got the most dysfunctional alliance situation possible when compared to Skyteam and Star Alliance (no immunity with BA and aside from QF, relatively weak partners in Asia and South America).

 

[Maark767]

Perhaps, but a few facts....

First of all, nobody interested in buying AC of AA's vintage right now. The 762's are quite long in the tooth, as are the bulk of the 757 and 763s. The 737's are needed for their fuel economy, as are the 777's.


Second of all, there's little left to sell that isn't already encumbered by mortgages. AA would have to buy their way out.


Last, $7B might seem to buy a lot of time, but with oil officially breaking the $100 barrier today (closed at $99.62), and having stayed above $90 for the past month, it's not going to buy as much time as it would have four years ago.

Keep in mind that 2007's fuel bill will be approx $6B (AMR uses about 750M gallons per quarter, and estimated a weighted cost of approx $2/gal). If you assume that price to be $2.30/gallon going forward, that's a $7B fuel bill in 2008.



Going in with a prepackaged filing greatly reduces the chance of AMR losing control.


Bankruptcy would allow AA to get out from underneath at least 100 MD80's with leases expiring in 2010 thru 2015, and another 50 or so MD82's with leases running thru 2022 (former TW).

It would also allow them to get out of 21 of the A300 leases, which expire between June 2008 and August 2011. IIRC, there are also a handful of F100s which are stored at MHV but still on lease until 2014.


Then there's the labor agreements....... AA has all three up for renewal, and all three unions have made promises to their members that AMR can't possibly meet.

2001 was a perfect storm driven to a large degree by the burst of the technology bubble, and made worst by terrorism and sustained somewhat by fears of a SARS pandemic.

2008 is looking to be another perfect storm, but this time being driven by oil, and to a lesser degree, the burst of the housing & mortgage bubble. Throw in fear of an avian flu pandemic for good measure.


If AMR is well prepared for that, then I guess I don't see how. Sure, they've got a lower debt load than they did three years ago, but there are still serious systemic issues with regard to labor costs and fleet mix, and they've got the most dysfunctional alliance situation possible when compared to Skyteam and Star Alliance (no immunity with BA and aside from QF, relatively weak partners in Asia and South America).

Wow.... with all this factual info , It looks like AA will be filing very soon.... Any idea when AA will file BK ???? Love to know....
Are you in management with AA ???? U seem to know alot about our finacials...
Maybe BK will be the best way to get thru all this....

 

[eolesen]

Not part of AMR management anymore, but all the financial information is available from SEC filings, and the leasing info is widely availbale from other sources available to analysts.

 

[StraaightTaalk]

Perhaps, but a few facts....

First of all, nobody interested in buying AC of AA's vintage right now. The 762's are quite long in the tooth, as are the bulk of the 757 and 763s. The 737's are needed for their fuel economy, as are the 777's.


Second of all, there's little left to sell that isn't already encumbered by mortgages. AA would have to buy their way out.


Last, $7B might seem to buy a lot of time, but with oil officially breaking the $100 barrier today (closed at $99.62), and having stayed above $90 for the past month, it's not going to buy as much time as it would have four years ago.

Keep in mind that 2007's fuel bill will be approx $6B (AMR uses about 750M gallons per quarter, and estimated a weighted cost of approx $2/gal). If you assume that price to be $2.30/gallon going forward, that's a $7B fuel bill in 2008.



Going in with a prepackaged filing greatly reduces the chance of AMR losing control.


Bankruptcy would allow AA to get out from underneath at least 100 MD80's with leases expiring in 2010 thru 2015, and another 50 or so MD82's with leases running thru 2022 (former TW).

It would also allow them to get out of 21 of the A300 leases, which expire between June 2008 and August 2011. IIRC, there are also a handful of F100s which are stored at MHV but still on lease until 2014.


Then there's the labor agreements....... AA has all three up for renewal, and all three unions have made promises to their members that AMR can't possibly meet.

2001 was a perfect storm driven to a large degree by the burst of the technology bubble, and made worst by terrorism and sustained somewhat by fears of a SARS pandemic.

2008 is looking to be another perfect storm, but this time being driven by oil, and to a lesser degree, the burst of the housing & mortgage bubble. Throw in fear of an avian flu pandemic for good measure.


If AMR is well prepared for that, then I guess I don't see how. Sure, they've got a lower debt load than they did three years ago, but there are still serious systemic issues with regard to labor costs and fleet mix, and they've got the most dysfunctional alliance situation possible when compared to Skyteam and Star Alliance (no immunity with BA and aside from QF, relatively weak partners in Asia and South America).

Other airlines will be preceding us into BK, then...some for round two and three. AA is better positioned than most...More cash on hand; some fuel hedges; lower debt load than previous. Even UA, having been at the BK trough longer than most, still emerged with a huge debt load, almost equal to AA's.


The variable, of course, is labor costs, and I don't doubt that AA will use the same arguments to once again try to get everyone to give till it hurts. I see them using this opportunity to strong-arm the unions into agreeing to a "new-hire" wage scale, with no benefits, no pension, etc., akin to the B-scale of the 80's.

If, indeed, we are all headed into the abyss, I guess it's really lucky for those management types that they got their money and ran.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

eolesen,

There are a number of "Initiatives", that AA could utilize, that could keep them out of BK, and keep the cash. A LOT of "this" goes back to (uncle) Bobby's prognostication, years ago.
o Reduce Mainline domestic SIGNIFICANTLY

o DO NOT sell A/E, arm them with a fleet of Ejets.

o Offer an Early out to the AMT/FSC and F/A groups(with a guarantee that retiree medical, and pensions remain Intact ! (They would be lining up for miles, to "get out" !!!!!!!! )

o Get a "deal" from APA over the Ejets ! (No deal, then BK would lie SOLELY on them, like in "bye-bye Pilot pensions". They'd ####/Cry and Moan, but in the end....a DEAL)

(Back to RLC)

o Keep Mainline employees in HUB/Focus cities ONLY(Example east coast) BOS/JFK/LGA/EWR/DCA/MCO/MIA

o If they can,t keep contract M/E...close MCI.

o As the a/c leases expire...GIVE EM' BACK !!!!!

o (you won't like this but Replace the A-300's/767's with A-330's( No delivery wait time)



??????????

 

[Maark767]

eolesen,

There are a number of "Initiatives", that AA could utilize, that could keep them out of BK, and keep the cash. A LOT of "this" goes back to (uncle) Bobby's prognostication, years ago.
o Reduce Mainline domestic SIGNIFICANTLY

o DO NOT sell A/E, arm them with a fleet of Ejets.

o Offer an Early out to the AMT/FSC and F/A groups(with a guarantee that retiree medical, and pensions remain Intact ! (They would be lining up for miles, to "get out" !!!!!!!! )

o Get a "deal" from APA over the Ejets ! (No deal, then BK would lie SOLELY on them, like in "bye-bye Pilot pensions". They'd ####/Cry and Moan, but in the end....a DEAL)

(Back to RLC)

o Keep Mainline employees in HUB/Focus cities ONLY(Example east coast) BOS/JFK/LGA/EWR/DCA/MCO/MIA

o If they can,t keep contract M/E...close MCI.

o As the a/c leases expire...GIVE EM' BACK !!!!!

o (you won't like this but Replace the A-300's/767's with A-330's( No delivery wait time)



??????????

Thank you.....Thats just a few things up their sleeve.... BK is not in the plan.....