( A daily dose of ) THIS and THAT.

Hackman said:
Yeah, nobody can understand your simpleton one-liners.
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Would pictures help?

th
 
NewHampshire Black Bears said:
Jesus Eric, Where the HELLL have you been ?? I mean I know you live in Arizona, and Arizona has a better than 50 - 50 shot of 'Turning Blue", but I mean C'mon !!!
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AZ ain't turning Blue, at least not this year. Every respectable poll since October 21 has Trump up, despite a few skewed polls which gave you and other liberals a very false hope.

Anyone who has lived in AZ for a few years knows the 5% or so of the population who are Mormon can make or break a margin or error. The LDS leadership in AZ would prefer that their members vote for Johnson or do a write-in for McMuffin, which stood to take away slightly from Trump.

The LDS members I know were strongly in the Johnson camp... until they started to learn more about his platforms. Things like legalizing pot, not being world-event aware, and being pro-choice tend to turn Mormons off. As the math started to become obvious, my LDS friends came back over to Trump on the grounds of "we have to defeat Hilliary" even if it meant voting for someone they find morally repugnant.

The same seems to have happened in UT, where McMuffin is on the ballot. He was supposed to win that state, but the closer election day gets, McMuffin seems to be turning into McNothin, polling well in third place behind Trump and Hilliary without a chance of catching up. At least he's beating Johnson.

I won't go out on a limb and say Trump wins on Tuesday, but I will say that all the info today is pointing at a shutout in terms of Hilliary being able to convert a currently Red state into a Blue state.
 
eolesen said:
AZ ain't turning Blue, at least not this year. Every respectable poll since October 21 has Trump up, despite a few skewed polls which gave you and other liberals a very false hope.

Anyone who has lived in AZ for a few years knows the 5% or so of the population who are Mormon can make or break a margin or error. The LDS leadership in AZ would prefer that their members vote for Johnson or do a write-in for McMuffin, which stood to take away slightly from Trump.

The LDS members I know were strongly in the Johnson camp... until they started to learn more about his platforms. Things like legalizing pot, not being world-event aware, and being pro-choice tend to turn Mormons off. As the math started to become obvious, my LDS friends came back over to Trump on the grounds of "we have to defeat Hilliary" even if it meant voting for someone they find morally repugnant.

The same seems to have happened in UT, where McMuffin is on the ballot. He was supposed to win that state, but the closer election day gets, McMuffin seems to be turning into McNothin, polling well in third place behind Trump and Hilliary without a chance of catching up. At least he's beating Johnson.

I won't go out on a limb and say Trump wins on Tuesday, but I will say that all the info today is pointing at a shutout in terms of Hilliary being able to convert a currently Red state into a Blue state.
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Thanks for coming on e. And thanks for using the "skewed polls" term.

I think you now realize what is happening and kudos to you for coming here.

I agree with your assessment. Trump wins Arizona and loses Nevada. I also think Florida is going to put us all to bed early on Tuesday, other than those pesky "second amendment" folks.

Sad.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/0...?0p19G=c&_r=0&referer=https://www.google.com/
 
NewHampshire Black Bears said:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/b...nate-analysis-of-the-poor-who-love-trump.html

NOT saying this is you..dell, But you live close enough to a lot of the state borders mentioned in this Great informative book. ........Furthermore, ANY of the F-UP states down south could Very Easily be substituted. Throw in a huge dose of 'Hypocritical' Evangelical Religious Right Wing Nuts, SHAKE WELL, then POUR and P R E S T O, you've got today's Terminally ILL Re - PLUG - BLICAN Party !
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Us Goobers sticks together.

You be a nice Bear rug fer ma wall.

We skin 'em fore we eats breakfast around here...

1631f8cdd1574c76cad44ef72160f05947d30058_l.jpg
 
Glenn Quagmire said:
Thanks for coming on e. And thanks for using the "skewed polls" term.

I think you now realize what is happening and kudos to you for coming here.

I agree with your assessment. Trump wins Arizona and loses Nevada. I also think Florida is going to put us all to bed early on Tuesday, other than those pesky "second amendment" folks.
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Well, it seems that you were right about Nevada, but entirely wrong about Florida, and the gap.

There's a razor thin difference in the popular vote of around <200,000 people nationally. That's around 0.15% -- entirely reasonable given the higher population densities of states like CA, NY, and IL.

And, it should be painfully obvious right now that the vast majority polls were seriously skewed and in the wrong direction.

Nate Silver in particular has serious egg on his face. I'm hoping this link stays as-is:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

Nate Silver was obviously very, very wrong.

Rinse, repeat.
 
You were correct E.

She underperformed badly. Joe Biden would have easily delivered those rust belt states where she lost. The margins by which she lost were thin, but he greatly changed the map. She was a flawed candidate and could never overcome her problems.

Bernie may have also been a greater draw.

It will be interesting to see what kind of agenda is put forth by Trump...the one he ran on, or the one that he can actually get through congress. I wouldn't bet on any wall being built, or any immigration reform. I could see a trade war started early on, with dire consequences, unless he actually gets some people in his cabinet that can bring some reality to his views.
 
Glenn Quagmire said:
It will be interesting to see what kind of agenda is put forth by Trump...the one he ran on, or the one that he can actually get through congress. I wouldn't bet on any wall being built, or any immigration reform. I could see a trade war started early on, with dire consequences, unless he actually gets some people in his cabinet that can bring some reality to his views.
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Agree, and they'll have two years to put up or face the wrath of the mid-terms.

There's a lot of crow being eaten today from the NeverTrumpers to the Fox News and Blaze Studios.

With both houses and the White House, they (establishment all the way over to the Tea Party) no longer have any excuses. They'll need to deliver. I'm optimistic we'll see some quick hits.
 
eolesen said:
Well, it seems that you were right about Nevada, but entirely wrong about Florida, and the gap.

There's a razor thin difference in the popular vote of around <200,000 people nationally. That's around 0.15% -- entirely reasonable given the higher population densities of states like CA, NY, and IL.

And, it should be painfully obvious right now that the vast majority polls were seriously skewed and in the wrong direction.

Nate Silver in particular has serious egg on his face. I'm hoping this link stays as-is:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

Nate Silver was obviously very, very wrong.

Rinse, repeat.
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Take at look at Nate here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/

You must not be a statistical nut like I am E.
 
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