Wn Could Replace Us Experts Say
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jimntx
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No, they won't be launching transatlantic or Caribbean service. But someone else will IF there is a market for it out of Philadelphia. You have to ask yourself with New York so nearby, are people flying to Europe from PHL because there is a local market for those flights, or are they flying to Europe from PHL because it is a US Airways hub and US Airways funneled them into PHL to connect to a Europe flight?Light Years said:
If it is because there is sufficient local market for those flights, there are several other airlines capable of flying transatlantic who have excess capacity right now. One or more of them would step into the market if US Airways doesn't serve it any longer. Otherwise, those passengers will connect to Europe through someone else's hub airport in another city.
There's not an airline flying today in the U.S. that couldn't be replaced in short order. Because of sheer size, UAL and AA might create a longer gap in service if they failed, but none of their hub cities would be without service for very long.
Light Years
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OK, but what if all of the network carries failed? What happens then? Do we rely on foriegn airlines only for international travel, with no agreements with our "simple, low cost" US airlines? What about service to smaller cities? Are you undeserving of air travel from your city if its not sufficient O&D for point to point flights to other big cities? How can a comprehensive air travel network be maintained if the network airlines are driven out of business by the LCCs?
I'm still waiting for an answer from all of these armchair analysts as to how the network carriers are supposed to have the same costs as LCCs and still offer needed service.
I'm still waiting for an answer from all of these armchair analysts as to how the network carriers are supposed to have the same costs as LCCs and still offer needed service.
RowUnderDCA
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- Oct 6, 2002
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Light Years said:
I could see ATA offering PHL-europe service with 757-300s codesharing with WN. I could see that at BWI, as well.
Light Years
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But doesnt codesharing and interlining etc raise costs? If the LCCs started booking people internationally and forming alliances, doesnt that start to make them into the dreaded "legacy" carriers?
RowUnderDCA
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RowUnderDCA said:
Hey, the industry is going to change. WN will change some too. I do believe that we are going in a circle. WN will eventually be where US is now, if we don't change some basic circumstances of the industry.... some of them labor related.
Of course, I'd get rid of employer sponsored health insurance anyway..... things THAT big need to change to get off this roller coaster... or merry go round or ferris wheel or dark ride or whatever it is.
Who determines what is "needed?" (Answer: the marketplace.)Light Years said:
Are daily non-stops from PHL to the however-many European cities U serves really "needed?" Just saying they are needed doesn't make it so. If U (or any other airline) is inherently unhealthy and unsustainable, it will shut down. And you know what, not many passengers will notice after a few weeks. Using U as an example, people would get from PHL to London / CDG / FRA on BA/AF/LH. People can get to the other cities with a quick drive to JFK or IAD, or a one-stop connection.
And how much real O&D is there from PHL to FCO or AMS anyways, compared to the connecting traffic on those routes? Someone who now goes from CLT or PIT (or CRW, or CMH, whatever) to AMS via PHL now on U could easily still get to AMS via IAD on UA, or via JFK on DL or AA, or via ORD on UA or AA, or via DTW via NW, etc etc....
Finally, the "LCCs" are coming to international. Unit costs may be higher with int'l service, true. If revenues exceed the costs, another airline will fill the void from PHL-- maybe another "legacy," maybe an LCC, maybe a Star Alliance partner, maybe a new "upstart" focusing on int'l service with new fuel-efficient 7E7s and cheap Eastern European or Indian or African labor when cabotage starts happening in the industry. If no one can get revenues to exceed the costs, there will be no service. And life will go on.
It's a cruel world.
jimntx
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First off, I don't believe that all of the network carriers are going to fail. Five years from now, I do not believe that there are still going to be 6, but there will be 2-3--through mergers/acquisitions/failures.Light Years said:
If the LCCs see an advantage to codesharing with a foreign airline, they will do it.Light Years said:
Light Years said:
As I asked earlier, if no other U.S. airline sees a financial incentive to serving a particular air route, should U.S. Airways be serving it either. Non-stop air service from Podunk to Frog Level is not a constitutional right. (Now sit back and get comfortable, you're about to hear a geezer story.
) My first airplane flight occurred when I was 12 years old (1957). It was on a Southern Airways DC-3 from BHM to MEM--a road distance of less than 300 miles. The flight took 2.5 or 3.5 hours. Not because of the speed of the DC-3. It took that long because we landed at Tuscaloosa, AL, Meridian, Ms, Columbus, MS, and Tupelo, MS before we got to Memphis. Today only BHM and MEM still have air service because as a/c grew in size and speed, those other cities did not generate enough business to make service profitable. That's the way the world works. Whether that is fair or not to the people in those cities is not a business debate.The definition of "comprehensive air network" is different today from 20 years ago, and 20 years from now will be different from today. If those new Airbus whales that carry 500 passengers start being used in domestic service, I doubt you will see hourly transcon service from NY to LA like there is today.
Light Years
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I'm not talking about US Airways being "needed", oh friendly-other-airline-employees. In fact, US Airways has one of the dumbest route structures of all time. I'm talking about if there were ONLY LCCs.
There is service that the demands that LCCs refuse to provide or cannot without gaining the costs of a classic airline. I think RowUnderDCA is correct that its just a cycle. Just as USAir was once the unstoppable, nimble crackerjack of an airline, JetBlue and Southwest wil become the bloated airlines of tomorrow, and then someone will p*ss in thier pool and the public will support the upstart.
Wouldnt it be better to come up with solutions instead of letting good companies go under every ten years? Low fares are dandy, but why do we live in a culture where we'll pay $7 for a cup of coffee, $25 for a tank of gas, $30 for a night at the movies but demand that an airline fly us wherever we please for $49?
Its oh-so-trendy to bash the airlines that have safely served the US for decades, connecting the smallest towns to points all over the world. Journalists and customers crow on about blue chips and low labor cost (which is BS- I've never made what some LCC employees make) and say that they will replace the traditional airlines. I'd just like to see peoples reactions if the only air service was LCC provided. Strictly the highest population markets, and only the airports the LCCs choose to serve. And no international service, because then the fares will go up on the domestic flights, and they'll need more employees, different fleets. Also, without the majors, who are you undercutting? Would they still offer the insanely low fares, or bump them up a bit to make a profit since theres not as much capacity?
I still see no answer as to how an LCC only nation of air service would work, only answers to what would happen in US Airways was gone. Big deal. What if they were ALL gone?
There is service that the demands that LCCs refuse to provide or cannot without gaining the costs of a classic airline. I think RowUnderDCA is correct that its just a cycle. Just as USAir was once the unstoppable, nimble crackerjack of an airline, JetBlue and Southwest wil become the bloated airlines of tomorrow, and then someone will p*ss in thier pool and the public will support the upstart.
Wouldnt it be better to come up with solutions instead of letting good companies go under every ten years? Low fares are dandy, but why do we live in a culture where we'll pay $7 for a cup of coffee, $25 for a tank of gas, $30 for a night at the movies but demand that an airline fly us wherever we please for $49?
Its oh-so-trendy to bash the airlines that have safely served the US for decades, connecting the smallest towns to points all over the world. Journalists and customers crow on about blue chips and low labor cost (which is BS- I've never made what some LCC employees make) and say that they will replace the traditional airlines. I'd just like to see peoples reactions if the only air service was LCC provided. Strictly the highest population markets, and only the airports the LCCs choose to serve. And no international service, because then the fares will go up on the domestic flights, and they'll need more employees, different fleets. Also, without the majors, who are you undercutting? Would they still offer the insanely low fares, or bump them up a bit to make a profit since theres not as much capacity?
I still see no answer as to how an LCC only nation of air service would work, only answers to what would happen in US Airways was gone. Big deal. What if they were ALL gone?
LGA Fleet Service
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Light Years said:
You forgot to mention serving prime rib and fanning them with palm fronds for that $49.00
Good question, and one that isnt easily answered unfortunately.
RowUnderDCA
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Low fares are dandy, but why do we live in a culture where we'll pay $7 for a cup of coffee, $25 for a tank of gas, $30 for a night at the movies but demand that an airline fly us wherever we please for $49?
the internet
LGA Fleet Service said:You forgot to mention serving prime rib and fanning them with palm fronds for that $49.00
Good question, and one that isnt easily answered unfortunately.
[post="166932"][/post]
the internet
Look, if all the legacies failed (so unlikely I am not sure why we are discussing it), I am sure some small towns, who can financially support air service would maintain it... Somebody would step up to the plate... Maybe somebody buys U's wholly-owneds... Maybe Mesa, SkyWest, and Chautauqua specifically go into business feeding LCC focus cities with their armada of RJ's (kinda like Independence Air is attempting).... who knows.
If an LCC sees international as a profitable market, it will get served... Look at jetBlue's recent Caribbean expansion, and America West's expansion into Mexico and Costa Rica, and ATA's service to San Juan, Aruba, and Mexico, and Frontier's service to Mexico, notably Cancun.
The reality is that today, the LCC's would not have lower costs than the legacies on transatlantic or transpacific travel. This is due to the aircraft costs, the lack of markets which could support "shuttle" service, the time zone change difficulties that cluster service around certain times of day (making asset utilization harder), etc. Should this equation change, the LCC's will be all over it... there is no doubt.
In times of difficulty, Americans innovate. If all 6 legacies failed tomorrow, I would expect some innovation to serve smaller and international markets.
Also, I remember hearing that Southwest would "never" get rid of its plastic boarding cards... Yet now they have. Even Southwest will change. The LCC's would adapt. The question is, are they smart enough to stop (or at least dampen) the cycle...
If an LCC sees international as a profitable market, it will get served... Look at jetBlue's recent Caribbean expansion, and America West's expansion into Mexico and Costa Rica, and ATA's service to San Juan, Aruba, and Mexico, and Frontier's service to Mexico, notably Cancun.
The reality is that today, the LCC's would not have lower costs than the legacies on transatlantic or transpacific travel. This is due to the aircraft costs, the lack of markets which could support "shuttle" service, the time zone change difficulties that cluster service around certain times of day (making asset utilization harder), etc. Should this equation change, the LCC's will be all over it... there is no doubt.
In times of difficulty, Americans innovate. If all 6 legacies failed tomorrow, I would expect some innovation to serve smaller and international markets.
Also, I remember hearing that Southwest would "never" get rid of its plastic boarding cards... Yet now they have. Even Southwest will change. The LCC's would adapt. The question is, are they smart enough to stop (or at least dampen) the cycle...
