Who Will WN Pick On Next?

[ClueByFour]

CO: IAH is in the HOU catchment, CLE isn't worth going after, and EWR is sorta covered by B6's JFK hub

CLE already has 20 LUV flights/day. EWR's cachement will suffer a bit from LUV at PHL (I'm suprised they did not do ABE instead of PHL--less congestion and closer to the heart of the EWR cachement in NJ).

 

[mweiss]

What's to stop WN from lowerering the fare to $100

That's not their business model. Never has been, and it's not about to be now. You don't mess with your business model if it works.

And, honestly, WN doesn't care much whether US survives or not. US is collateral damage. WN will be perfectly happy to come to a stalemate as they did with HP and AS.

 

[spanky]

LUV is not going "after" anyone. Depite Seigel's call to arms, "Southwest's out to kill us!", reminiscent of Governor Dean's infamous scream, Southwest has gone numerous carriers hubs and operated side by side just fine. Luv has been flying out of PHX for decades with HP and have yet to "KILL" them. Flying out of Cleveland for years and have yet to "KILL" Continental. Flew out of St Louis for years and didn't kill TWA! They killed themselves and were subsequently bought by American.

Food for thought, when was the last time you saw trailor trash type passengers on a USAir flight. Seen the show Airline? Notice a good number of type of passengers that fly LUV. My point is this, a majority of LUV's passengers out of PHL will be people who would have never have flown before if it weren't for low fares. The people willing to pay $2400 to fly across the country will continue to fly USAir.

I would be looking to fix my house rather than looking for blame and sympathy.

 

[biztraveller29]

Frankly I think that WN has also come to a stalemate with United. They've been competing out West for years, and as long as United keeps its extensive int'l routes and alliance partners, the stalemate will continue.

I also think it's a bit of an overstatement to say that WN is going to "go after" any specific airline next. They expand where the markets and fares warrant, and where they can operate a sufficient number of flights to get economies of scale.

They obviously felt that PHL was underserved and/or prices were too high. There are only a few airports left with no/little low fare carrier competition. It just happens that PHL is one of the last big cities/airports in that situation. I would be shocked if CLT wasn't in someone's sites next, be it WN, B6, or FL.

 

[SWAFA30]

Food for thought, when was the last time you saw trailor trash type passengers on a USAir flight. Seen the show Airline? Notice a good number of type of passengers that fly LUV. My point is this, a majority of LUV's passengers out of PHL will be people who would have never have flown before if it weren't for low fares. The people willing to pay $2400 to fly across the country will continue to fly USAir.

Ahh...."Airline". The "Airline" fueled notion that every one of Southwest flights is filled with "trailer trash" from stem to stern and involves dragging a screaming drunk off an aircraft is about as accurate as the notion that police officers spend every moment of a 10 hour shift pistol whipping ne'er do wells and chasing down "perps" as seen on "COPS".

"COPS" doesn't show police officers writing tickets for doublr parking or talking to a group of school children about safety. Why not? Because that would be about as interesting as watching paint dry. Same goes for a "reality" show about an airline, particularly an airline that has been christened the "greyhound of the skies". A&E could show the hundreds of thousands of millions of uneventful flights. But, then why would anyone watch? Drunks and irates are the exception rather than rule but darn it if they don't make for good TV....if you like that sorta thing.

Almost any WN flight LAX to LAS on a Friday night is going to have more than it's fair share of characters. Just like any flight from anywhere to MCO is likely to be filled with families headed down to the mousetrap. However, the characters and screaming toddlers are balanced by the suits, ties, and briefcases that fill our planes every morning and late afternoon. Next time you find yourself in the airport early on a weekday morning, stroll by the SWA gate. That is if you can find it. We are usally at gate X99 behind the Hotdog on a Stick stand. You might be surprised at how many of the folks "slumming" their way from MDW to STL, LAX to SMF, BWI to PVD, or DAL to HOU might look right at home in First or Business Class on any of the other majors. Many business travelers were flying WN before 9/11. After 9/11 even more had their first WN experience when their corporate travel planners found themselves with an economic gun to their figurative heads. When forced to fly WN, these men and women discovered that while WN has no seat assignments or premium cabin, it is not necessarily the 7th ring of hell. The new and reconfigured planes had fairly comfy leather seats with a decent 32" pitch. The flights in many markets were frequent and usually on-time, the walk-up fares were reasonable, and Full Fare Tickets were flexible. In short what these folks came to discover was that while WN does not offer every amenity or destination that every business traveler requires, they offered enough to meet the needs of more than a few.

Do we have more than our fair share of folks who have scraped together their $39 OW fare and checked a HEFTY bag through as luggage? ABSOLUTELY!!!
Is WN for everybody? ABSOLUTELY NOT!!! Does WN meet or exceed the expectations of a much broader spectrum of passengers than people give us credit for? ABSOLUTELY. Seems like I remember at some point last year, WN surpassed DL briefly to become the top carrier in terms of Domestic Passengers Carried. Are there enough "trailer trash" passengers in the country to generate those kind of numbers?

I don't think I am taking too great a risk to assume that more than one once great carrier has hung their competitive hat on the notion that theirpassengers would neverstoop to flying Southwest. That can be a dangerous assumption and I think some of those carriers rode that mistaken notion right into obsolesence.

In closing I wish the people of US the very best. The rank and file here at WN don't relish what you guys are going through. We are people first and WN employees second. I can only truly speak for myself, but I like to think that none of my co-workers would take pleasure in another's misfortune. This is management's 'war', we just have the unpleasant task of actually going out and 'fighting' it when all we really want to do is come to work everyday and just do our jobs.

Take Care and Fly Safe

SWAFA30

 

[BoeingBoy]

SWAFA30,

Well said - as far as I'm concerned you folks are the competition, not the enemy. Whatever happens here will be because of 15 years of poor management, not because you and your coworkers are out to "take our jobs".

Best wishes,

Jim

 

[FWAAA]

SWAFA30:

Best post I've ever read on USAviation.com. Bravo!

I'm an EXP with AA and will fly nearly 200k miles on AA this year. I also fly 50+ WN segments each year (and own a large pile of LUV). I see as much "trailer trash" on AA as I do on my WN flights. Honestly.

But routine ops with normal pax makes for very boring TV. You're right.

Again - excellent post!

 

[28yearsnojob]

:down: WHO CARES.....................................

 

[Just Plane Crazy]

I don't think that WN is going after a local market much longer. They have their eyes on the bigger picture. WN looked at the new B7E7. This only could mean that they want to start flying international. Their targets could be LHR, AMS, and all types of Mexican destinations. So targeting these markets whome are they going to hurt most?

LHR - UA, US, AA
AMS - NW
Mexico - HP

In the long run that is the target.

 

[WorldTraveler]

WN will do whatever it wants in the NE regardless of whether US lives or dies. PHL will be a major operation for them if for no other reason that it is the best chance they have of getting close to the huge NYC market; they seriously miscalculated getting into that market and are making every effort not to be shut out of the rest of the big NE markets since Jet Blue has made it clear that NYC has the ability to "host" a major low cost carrier operation.

As for hubs, don't write off either Dallas or Chicago as already being fully served by LCC's. The Wright amendment severely restricts WN's ability to serve north Texas; they have accepted that for now but AirTran is moving into DFW and is trying to become a major player in North Texas. AirTran will cause WN to rethink the current status quo in N. Texas. In Chicago, MDW is hardly an acceptable airport to serve as a nationwide hub for a city of that size given the short runways. AA, DL, and NW have all been strong competitors in holding LCC's at their hubs so I don't think you will see AA go after any one of them. Don't assume that any city is protected from receiving WN service because it is in the catchment area of another WN airport. There are several cities that are served by WN from multiple airports. WN's goal right now is to become as big of a presence on the east coast as they are on the west and they still have a ways to go before that happens.

 

[Trin03]

SWAFA30,

Wow! Very well put, and for the comment regarding "Trailer Trash", Well working at the airport for US, I have seen my share.

The point you make is a valid one, WN may not be for everyone, however, in this country there are more of the working and middle class than the upper tier.

Boeing boy is right. If US fails it will not be because of WN.

 

[mweiss]

The Wright amendment severely restricts WN's ability to serve north Texas

Yes, but I suspect they'd put their energy into finishing Wright off (the amendment, not the guy) rather than having to maintain service at both airports.

In Chicago, MDW is hardly an acceptable airport to serve as a nationwide hub for a city of that size given the short runways.

If all you're flying is 737s, MDW's runways are plenty long enough.

Don't assume that any city is protected from receiving WN service because it is in the catchment area of another WN airport.

Depends on the specifics of the market. For example, ISP might as well be in Africa to the folks from Northern Jersey. But people will happily skip DCA for BWI to save some bucks.

 

[ClueByFour]

PHL will be a major operation for them if for no other reason that it is the best chance they have of getting close to the huge NYC market; they seriously miscalculated getting into that market and are making every effort not to be shut out of the rest of the big NE markets since Jet Blue has made it clear that NYC has the ability to "host" a major low cost carrier operation.

AirTran will cause WN to rethink the current status quo in N. Texas. In Chicago, MDW is hardly an acceptable airport to serve as a nationwide hub for a city of that size given the short runways.

I believe WN's goal has always been to "bracket" NYC, much in the same fashion they bracketed BOS. I know that WN is bucking the trend on operationally resilient airports by going into PHL, however, PHL is nothing like LGA/EWR/JFK (the latter during the international push). I will admit that I thought WN would have gone to ABE to split the NYC/PHL difference and draw from both cachement areas, but apparently they believe that PHL is underserved enough to warrant the operational problems. That said, I don't see WN in LGA/EWR/JFK--I see them heading to HPN and eventually getting themselves a new terminal built--by doing so, they will have "bracketed" NYC with ISP, HPN, and PHL.

WN is perfectly happy at DAL--if they were not, they would have fought much harder to ditch the Wright amendment. Getting into a pissing match at DFW with two hub carriers (DL and AA) makes very little sense.

Southwest already serves both coasts from MDW. The congestion problem at MDW still pales in comparison to the mess that is ORD--that's another operational nightmare I don't think you will see LUV jump into. Once it's done, MDW will be a 40-45 gate airport. If WN has 16 gates (by my count), they can get 120-160 flights a day out of MDW. That's plenty for a point to point carrier.

 

[Tanker]

SWA is not out to pick on any airline & would be very happy if USAir survives. When SWA goes into a market it is with the intent that the whole market will increase. For example within 2 years of SWA being in BWI the USAir's market share had fallen, BUT the total number of paxs that they flew had tripled from what they had before SWA began operations at BWI. As Herb said recently how are the 28 flights of SWA in PHL going to kill USAir when they have 400.