When Will Usairways File Chapter 7 ?

[Reservation Agent]

Does anyone want to predict when USAIRWAYS will file for Chapter 7 Bankruptcy?

Or if not, why do you think this airline will survive....
Serious Issues include:

1. The current leadership...

2. lack of other investors comming forward...

3. Aircraft builders & lenders pulling aircraft orders off production...

4. unwillingness of airline to bargain with unions in good faith...(Cancelling meetings)

5. a slow travel booking season, now...

6. Horrendous weather problems doing massive damage in Florida, Alabama, San Juan, Grand Cayman, Nassasu, Freeport, Montego Bay Jamacia, and other Carribbean destinations.....

7. Competition from other low fare carriers...(Southwest has higher costs, but more efficient than U)

8. Triming back on flights in and out of Pittsburgh, which is one of the nations best airports.... to cram additional flights in and out of Philly & Charlotte...This winter with its usual bad weather on the East Coast, will show what a dumb move it was to favor the other 2 hubs further East than Pittsburgh....Philly & Charlotte usually have relied on Pittsburgh further West to re-route pax when ice storms in Charlotte and heavy snows in Philly... close/delay/cxl flts Charlotte & Philly....
Or have to rebook on OA because of lack of options on other U flts...

9. The company management alarming the public into booking elsewhere with daily announcements on USAIRWAYS problems, etc...

10. Even frequent flyers turning in their USAIRWAYS miles to get free tickets are shying away, and are asking to be booked on United and Lufthansia, etc..

Did I miss anything?...

 

[BoeingBoy]

The only two "bright" spots I can see in the near term:

1 - court imposed temporary pay cuts - "bright" for cash drain, not employees (and assuming contract abrogation won't come till near the end of the year or later).

2 - Won't be long (maybe already) before bookings for Thanksgiving/Christmas travel - improves incoming cash flow (assuming the booking away factor isn't too great).

As a pure guess, I'll put my dollar on Ch 7 before contract abrogation can happen.

Jim

 

[Reservation Agent]

Most of the bookings I am seeing now are for "free" tickets using Dividend Miles...or people traveling on an immediate need basis like a funeral....

It is almost October, and I just am not seeing much in the way of Thanksgiving or Christmas bookings, which is kinda scary....It is now about 8 weeks til Thanksgiving week....

Leads me to believe the public is afraid of getting stuck somewhere with a USAIRWAYS ticket if there is a shutdown...and fully booked seats on the competitiors....Thanks for all the negative reports in the media, lately....

 

[totobird]

According to an article in USA Today we are burning about 1 million dollars a day and this will increase to 3 million a day as the slow travel season begins shortly.
Given the fact we have about 300 million in unrestricted operating cash and absolutely no investors I figure that gives us about 100 days until Chapter 7 or until the end of the year.
Not to mention.......several creditors have now been burned twice and I can't imagine they will be back for a third spanking.

 

[delldude]

Did I miss anything?...

how's about employee morale?

 

[bofie]

I predict no chap 7 will be filed. U got into the 2nd BK with enough time to have a decent chance to re-organize. Lokk at continental's rough ride a few yrs ago and look at wherethey are now.

 

[FM2436]

Sounds like with the loss of RJ financing it is now time to immediately discontinue US Airways (Express) service at the bottom 50 passenger enplanement cities and concentrate solely on flying passengers at US Airways' top 50-65 passenger enplanement cities.

Southwest only operates at 59 cities, so can US Airways.

 

[orville]

Not many holiday bookings??? Sounds like a great time to non-rev.

 

[cavalier]

I predict no chap 7 will be filed. U got into the 2nd BK with enough time to have a decent chance to re-organize. Lokk at continental's rough ride a few yrs ago and look at wherethey are now.

[post="182279"][/post]​

I like this post. It's like saying: Hey, look at Bill Gates, if he can do it, I can do it.

Like I said: Widespread delusions among employees is normal to keep sanity intact.

 

[jimntx]

According to an article in USA Today we are burning about 1 million dollars a day and this will increase to 3 million a day as the slow travel season begins shortly.
Given the fact we have about 300 million in unrestricted operating cash and absolutely no investors I figure that gives us about 100 days until Chapter 7 or until the end of the year.
Not to mention.......several creditors have now been burned twice and I can't imagine they will be back for a third spanking.

[post="182275"][/post]​

You are assuming that the court, ATSB, and other major creditors will allow US Airways to spend every dime of that money and go into Ch. 7 with nothing left to pay the final bills. That will not happen. For the creditors who are not backed by the ATSB, their only hope of getting paid something in a Ch. 7 is the unrestricted cash left over after the ATSB and its friends are paid.

If US Airways really starts burning cash at the rate of $3mil/day, I don't think it has more than 60 days before the creditors pull the plug. I am particularly concerned about what Res Agent posted above about the the holiday travel bookings. Those should be coming in now.

 

[AAviator]

how's about employee morale?

[post="182277"][/post]​

How about the lack of a plan?

F/C service, high cost airports, international network, premium service, low cost/fare airline. Isn't this essentially trying to emulate something that doesn't exist? Unless of course you all work for minumum wage.

All we've seen so far is a jack of all trades, master of none strategy..

I wish you all the best of luck.

Hope I'm wrong, Chapter 7 Q1 2005.

 

[Winglet]

As the year drags on, bookings will further decline as it's more and more apparent that Chapter 7 will happen. Even if the judge genuflects to Lakefield, et al's, wish list, it won't be nearly enough. These are the same inept clowns in the same circus as before.

Despite the mumbo-jumbo-hocus-pocus of calling it something esle, Lakefield basically wants to run a hub and spoke airline with a commuter feeder at cherry-picking, one-fleet type, new-hire costs. To have ANY chance of doing that, he's going to have to have labor costs that are MUCH less than SW and even JB . . . . and that assuming that the economy is going to recover, which it's not anytime soon with huge deficits, record high fuel costs, and a bottomless war in Iraq. In other words, he wants the same airline only with the rank-and-file workers (but not the execs) subsidizing the ticket prices.

U's a dead man walking . . . . . and we can thank Dave Siegel, Bruce Lakefield, the rest of the BOD, and cracked management team for lining their own pockets while the airline burned for the last 3 years.

It's a disgrace, but then Dave got his $4.7 million, so I guess that makes it easy for him to take.

 

[bofie]

I like this post. It's like saying: Hey, look at Bill Gates, if he can do it, I can do it.

Like I said: Widespread delusions among employees is normal to keep sanity intact.

[post="182289"][/post]​

Yo cav...you nattering nabob of negativism,....U COULD WELL SURVIVE. What good does your unending carping do for anyone?

 

[cavalier]

bofie:


The same as being unrealistic does, nothing....same thing, different slant.

My opinion will not make or break U.



True Story:

My wife has many problems I will not go into but just say that years ago she had major brain surgery. The neuro surgeon she had was what everyone called: A good doctor with bad bedside manners. Then I got to know this man personally, and it was true. If I asked him a direct question he would answer in such a way that left me just about zero hope, then I found myself resenting this man when indeed he was the one responsible for saving her very life. Ten years passed and my wife found herself requiring back surgery and neurosurgeons being this best of the best we once again went to this same doctor. This time not being such dire circumstance I got to know and see a different side of this surgeon and got know him personally to the point I called him at his home a few times. I asked him after we became closer why he was so damn hard on me and others with the FACTS of life making me feel so terrible. He told me that after knowing the truth that his patients families received with his cold hard FACTS, they were prepared for the worst, because in a lot of cases with serious brain surgery the outcome is bleak at best. When things turn out ok the patients family is purely over joyed knowing how lucky they actually are.

U is no different than a patient who requires brain surgery to survive and even that is no guarantee. I am simply doing what I was taught from a man much smarter and wiser than I.

 

[GadgetFreak]

A couple days ago I would have guessed Ch7 by mid-October. But a something has come up which has perhaps led me to be more optimistic. There is a meeting today of unsecured creditors. I didnt realize that the unsecured creditors were in it for so much as the article I read would indicate. These were big players like GE financial and GE engine service as well as a number of others. One of them said that they would unlikely get much if any of their money from a Ch7 and their only hope was for US to keep operating. I thought those people would be pushing for Ch7 to get at the cash but this article indicated that they felt that once ATSB is done there wouldnt be enough for them. So there may not have been a deal with ATSB afterall. US might have declared Ch11 to protect themselves from ATSB calling the loan and forcing a shutdown. They may be counting on support in court from these unsecured creditors. It is about the only thing that has led me to think they may be around for long.

The ticket sales are another thing. At some point I have to buy tickets for my dad to go to Florida in late October, a relative to visit us from PIT at Thanksgiving and my wife and I to go to PIT at Christmas. Im pretty uncomfortable getting any of those on US at this time but the only one that wont be silly stupid on another carrier would be my dad to Florida. He lives in CVG so there are more options. I cant imagine if I am having these doubts that the average consumer will even consider US. That is still the most negative thing, I think ticket sales are going to tank in a big way and there wont be a way to survive that. Realistically, if it looks like the holiday revenue isnt happening they will have to shut down. Even with that cash it isnt clear they will have enough. Without it they dont have a chance.