What Would You Do

[Groucho]

It looks as if this company is headed for another Chapter 11 filing. I base this on the lack of urgency and pressure management is putting on labor in general. So far only ALPA and CWA have made any kind of response to company proposals and these responses show no urgency or serious negotiating on the company's part.

So if the company files Chapter 11 again I believe that they will go after the contracts.

If they do, what is the prediction of those on this board to the various employee responses. Wil you accept the contracts as dictated by the courts? Strike?

If you don't see this sceaniaro as the outcome, explain what you think will happpen.

I'm just trying to get a handle on this.

Thanks.

"Those are my principles. If you don't like them I have others." Groucho...

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

It looks as if this company is headed for another Chapter 11 filing.

Calling USA320Pilot Calling USA320Pilot time to paste your mantra again and get this thread moving..let the flames begin..

 

[oldiebutgoody]

I think that any bankruptcy by UAIR would ONLY be done in order to sell the assets. RSA has far too much to lose to do it for any other reason. Therefore, the labor issues will have little impact on whether they file or not, no matter what they may be saying. UAIR is STILL so poorly run that any concessions given by labor are ONLY a bandaid measure. The other issues, like better and more efficient use of assets, would have FAR MORE impact on the bottom line, yet management has thus far seen no need to implement them. IF UAIR goes bankrupt again (which may or may not happen), either it will be a chapter 7 auction or a prepackaged chapter 11 in concert with some kind of major asset sale or merger. The labor agreements will only ensure that UAIR employees get it "where the sun don't shine" in any merger, acquisition or sale. My opinion, of course!

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

I think that any bankruptcy by UAIR would ONLY be done in order to sell the assets.

Though I only agree with about 45% of your post it does seems well thought out and was a good read.

 

[Groucho]

USAirways vote NO:

Sorry I don't get it. I'm not A320 Capt, or whomever.

If chapter 11 isn't in the cards in your opnion, what is?

Where will this company be in 1 year. Still operating? Liquidated?

 

[SpinDoc]

USAirways vote NO:

Sorry I don't get it. I'm not A320 Capt, or whomever.

If chapter 11 isn't in the cards in your opnion, what is?

Where will this company be in 1 year. Still operating? Liquidated?

Groucho:

In 1 year, US will be operating with the lowest
labor costs in the industry and will merge with
America West to have a true nationwide network
to feed both coasts, the Caribbean, and European
international routes. After UA goes away in
January 2005, US will embark on an expansion
that will be possible because of the lowest costs
and productivity in the industry. By 2006, US
will have lower costs than Southwest and Jet Blue
and profit sharing will restore the wage cuts that
were accepted by the unions and enacted in
September of 2004. It will be nice to finally
dethrone Southwest as the low fare king.

 

[oldiebutgoody]

I want some of what SPINDOC is smokin'

 

[mweiss]

USA320Pilot, is that you???

Seriously, I'm sure there are those who hope for such a merger, but if I were running HP I sure wouldn't try and merge with US.

Look what happened with the last merger HP tried to do? Carly Fiorina got into a huge battle with the company's founding family, and cost a great deal of goodwill in their acquisition of Compaq.

Oh, wait...wrong HP...sorry.

 

[delldude]

It looks as if this company is headed for another Chapter 11 filing. I base this on the lack of urgency and pressure management is putting on labor in general. So far only ALPA and CWA have made any kind of response to company proposals and these responses show no urgency or serious negotiating on the company's part.

So if the company files Chapter 11 again I believe that they will go after the contracts.

If they do, what is the prediction of those on this board to the various employee responses. Wil you accept the contracts as dictated by the courts? Strike?

If you don't see this sceaniaro as the outcome, explain what you think will happpen.

I'm just trying to get a handle on this.

Thanks.

"Those are my principles. If you don't like them I have others." Groucho...

So if the company files Chapter 11 again I believe that they will go after the contracts.

only after court mandated negotiations..... if that fails...then all bets off...then free to strike.

 

[SpinDoc]

only after court mandated negotiations.....
if that fails...then all bets off...then free to
strike.

SpinDoc replies:
Strikes will never happen. There just
aren't enough union members who are
willing to walk out and sell everything
they own to keep afloat while replacement
workers keep the airline operating.

 

[javaboy]

based on observations of recent events, and reasonable assumptions in the future (oil is not going to 25 a bbl, the iraq war will not be over, ect...)

i believe it is imperative to avoid BK at Almost any cost (whoa slow down and read on). This is based on the UAL 3rd denial and subsequent dont ever ask again for ATSB backing, then after shopping around commercial for comercial money again coming up with Zippo. (without going into UALs problems) suffice to say that exit financing is basically non-exsistant for airline companies at this juncture. Throw in an election year and there is not much political motovation until after Novemeber.
As business plan based on gaining revenue due to the predicted failure of a competitor is also not acceptable to banks (see DAL). The courts will be used most predominately to rachet down contractual obligations (as UAIR has found out once) AMR was not less than moments away from filing 2 seperate times in the recent past indicating play ball or risk it all concept. (signaling the company's intent to use the courts to go after labor contracts first and foremost) now coupling that together in todays snapshot economic enviroment i conclude that BK might be a one way trip.

Having said that, the second part of the queston (UAIR 1 year from now) could be most interesting as i have said in the past UAIR (in my own opinion) is not the most likely candidate to shutdown. and for the same reason should say a 20% reduction in flights of a competitor result in more fares for UAIR does not the situation quickly reverse itself where say that competitor is cutting flights, still losing money while UAIR picks up just enough revenue to force it into the black. then it could be argued "the plan is working" and more money might flow (meaning more travelers might book away from a crumbling carrier and towards one that looks like it will be around longer). Sure reduced wages will improve the balance sheet from its present form. but will that be enough? again i have always thought that will help but that is not what is wrong here. and until you correct the root of the problem the problem still exsists.

so if you choose to agree with things i have said, then it should be fair enough to state that in this case its the last one standing that will win not the biggest. the trick is to navigate this patch in such a way that there is a tomorrow and as in times of ill the employees gave, upon better times the company reciporcates such a relationship would indicate yes we are all in this together.

so you want a look into the future? sure guessing can be fun too. somebody i'm sure will reference this and point it out to me (Which i hope is the case) so summer of 05......... i think oil will be sub 33. but not sub 28. hence the trend is downward, the overall economy will stall due to another few intrest rate hikes but regain its footing and continue pushing towards 3% growth of gdp. i suspect that a fall rally in the markets will hesistate as the elections grow nearer, absent any major terrorist incidents overall airline passenger traffic will continue to rise meaning industry gross revenues will increase. While PHL seems to have become a battleground should AMR or DAL enter BK the other one will follow in order to achieve costs comparisions. all the while UAIR can begin to trumpet its horn we are NOT in bankrupcty, we ARE cash flow positive, as costs drop for DAL and AMR look for increased Pressure on SWA from not only them in there base cities (mco/dfw) (yeah i know swa goes to hobby) but there might be a war among the discounters at some point again allowing UAIR to recover even further. SO yeah i guess 1 year from now i still see it flying how many jets and with how many employees? well there's the million dollar (or 4.5 in siegels case) question. I see no reason for further personnel cuts other than through attrition and if that continues to be the case a by next summer UAIR will have to begin recalling former employees.

now if oil rises (terror incident, iraq war ect) or another (god for bid) event occurs then all bets are off at that point i would suspect multiple fillings and multiple shutdowns to occur but that is worst case.

Specifically could you imagine what would happen if 737s are replaced by Emb 170s? but then with the AMOUNT of EMBs coming it would eventually result in more staffing rather than less. Currently i see UAIR approaching the same situation as the early 90s. the d9s were getting old, the company was losing money, there was a war on , oil was 50 a bbl (intrest rates were at 8% not 1.5) and yes a recession and election were upon america. the dishartening thing is that history (for the company ) has repeated itself and it seems that it did not learn from the first go round. The good news is every employee left has been there done that before and knows exactly what its going to take. 10 years later do they still have it in them? i would NOT bet against that group, the most gutsy, hardest working people i have ever come across in the airline industry.

 

[700UW]

only after court mandated negotiations.....
if that fails...then all bets off...then free to
strike.

SpinDoc replies:
Strikes will never happen. There just
aren't enough union members who are
willing to walk out and sell everything
they own to keep afloat while replacement
workers keep the airline operating.

Replacement workers? Don't you mean scabs!

And by the way, you have to pass a federal background check that can take three months to come back.

Ain't like the old days.

 

[robbedagain]

Replacement workers? Don't you mean scabs!

And by the way, you have to pass a federal background check that can take three months to come back.

Ain't like the old days.

dont forget the stress test that the new hires have to do now. i only know this because our manager told us that the company has a new policy where the new hires have to go thru a stress test i think in phlly

 

[AP Tech]

Its obvious that some are not subject to random drug testing or wear the famous rose colored glass judging by "their" opinion of the future of USAirways.... :blink:

 

[insp89]

The reason for the lack of urgency by management is they KNOW the IAM will not even think of negotiating with them until the result of the outsourcing [stealing] of the Airbus work is known. Everthing is hinging on this decision.. The company can blame themselves for missing all their self proclaimed deadlines...The pilot's offer is contingent on all the unions taking concessions, so in reality the company has no concessions agreed upon [this time around]. But lets not forget the $1.5 Billion in concessions they ALREADY have......And lets not forget Midatlantic, The airline created off the backs of the employees.....