US Partner UA in play...how could this be?

[fatburger]

767jetz-

Maybe a play on UAL will be good for the shareholders but not necessarily good for you personally. All Chip is doing is promoting thought provoking dialogue. Will it happen? Who knows! But obviously it's being discussed.

You have a choice when you log on to read and comment on Chip's posts. Shooting down everything he reports just tells me that just maybe you are either in denial mode or your that much more nervous that he may be on to something. Whatever your M.O. may be I wish you luck with your career.

-fatburger-

 

[usfliboi]

The facts are.... The was tent approved and the application HAS NOT BEEN DENIED! At times during the process, we may or may not meet certain requirements. That doesnt mean that the loan application has been denied, it means we need to focus on the end result.. Whether or not the atsb would approve it in its final stages at &% profit margin or not in reality remains to be seen...

 

[usfliboi]

Although i can disagree with chips assumptions sometimes, he still has every right to post the things he post... There isnt a need to insult him because i dont think i have ever seen him insult anyone on this board.. (well maybe our intelligence ) He doesnt do anything else other than what others do on this board ie speculate, inform, pass on info, and discuss.Do I think he iaccurate all the time? NO! But why bash him ? He doesnt do it to everyoone else so please dont act like kids and play those games> WE are adults and can disagree or agree.. If you have something to offer constructive to counter something he says great....

 

[767jetz]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 11/7/2002 8:59:22 AM fatburger wrote:

767jetz-

All Chip is doing is promoting thought provoking dialogue...

-fatburger-
----------------
[/blockquote]

I disagree. Chip makes predictions and speculates, quoting what sources have told me on a condition of anonymity, and then connects the dots in a way that draws a picture the way he would like to see it.

In the end, his picture is always the same... he gave up too much money compared to his co-workers, he sacrificed too much already, he's getting screwed by greedy UAL pilots who try to bypass ALPA merger policy, he got screwed out of his 777 position, he got tricked into leaving UAL to work for US, etc., etc. Poor, poor Chip.

 

[AOG-N-IT]

If there is a Reason to Believe that U will be denied ATSB Loans? , It will be based purely on U's lack of proof to show the required 7% profit margin.

This is no different than nay other Lendor needing proof of profit potential , prior to providing a business loan.

Face it..between the economy , the threat of a war ,increased fuel prices...and U being one of the few to not show better numbers in customers flying in October , you gotta ask yourself, What would you do if it were your money to lend?

I realize that the ATSB funding is our Tax dollars at work...but that's everyone's tax money...not just a select few airlines. U has the burden of proof to overcome...and they are attempting to do it by gutting it greatest resource , The Employee's Maybe some thinking on the business plan aspect needs questioning? I think the ATSB lending powers will have exactly the same question.

 

[iflyjetz]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 11/7/2002 8:05:21 AM Bear96 wrote:

As much as I don't want to see it happen, and as much as I think Chip's writing "style" is inappropriate, I do hope the UAL employees here are preparing for a post-Ch.11 UAL and the pain that will come with it.

Of course we all want to defend our company right now. I just hope the UAL employees here aren't reacting solely to Chip's proclivity for drivel and spin and so reflexively are defending the opposite point of view from his; but at least privately are considering the possibility of UAL filing Ch.11. To do otherwise is to be out of touch with reality.

As much as I hate to say it, I continue to think UAL will have to file Ch.11 at some point this winter, with a serious shrinking of the company to follow.
----------------
[/blockquote]

Bear96, at this point, I would say that 99% of UAL's employees have contemplated UAL filing chap 11. We're not living in a fantasyland.
Personally, I have spent far too much time reflecting on how it would impact myself and UAL.

 

[iflyjetz]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 11/7/2002 5:12:16 AM N628AU wrote:

I take this as a blast at Chip's writing style, much like my tag line. I have yet to see anywhere besides media reports or Chip's "inside sources speaking on the condition of anonymity", that our loan has been denied. In fact, the only public statement from the ATSB came the day after we filed saying it did not affect the application. Sure we still need to meet 7%, but there has been nothing nothing the loan has been denied. If you are being serious, please state your source.

----------------
[/blockquote]

N628AU, I have no idea of the current status of U's ATSB loan. I haven't been following it too closely. Don't read anything into my previous post; I have no inside sources and I don't see a conspiracy here.
These are truly dark days for everyone in the airline industry. Almost all companies are losing money, and almost everyone in the industry's job is being negatively effected by all of this. This is not a problem isolated to UAL and U.

 

[chipmunn]

[BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]I believe I said that US did not qualify for the loan guarantee because the company's business plan no longer projected a 7 percent profit margin. I did not say the company was rejected by the ATSB, but stated further cuts were necessary to obtain the government backed financing.[/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]US filed a dual track application with one option for an out of court restructuring and the second option after emergence. To obtain the loan guarantee, the company will need additional cost cuts of around $200 million per year. It is expected the cuts will come largely from vendors, creditors, and lessors, but there will likely need to be further changes in productivity and pensions (note – the pension issue is going to be a larger problem with yesterday’s FOMC decision to drop interest rates by one half point. [/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]Today the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette published a column titled US Airways must cut more or may lose loan guarantees that can be read at:[/FONT][BR][BR][A href=http://www.post-gazette.com/businessnews/20021107usair1107p4.asp][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]http://www.post-gazette.com/businessnews/20021107usair1107p4.asp[/FONT][/A][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3] [/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]that echoes what I have been saying for the past couple of weeks.[/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]For those naysayers, I encourage you to read the article.[/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]In regard to a corporate transaction, there are multiple moving parts with government, investor, bankruptcy, and corporate interests. The final form of the US and UA restructurings are still being determined, but again, there are discussions occurring among heavy hitters, which will decide the final outcome(s). Will it occur, who knows? But, it is being discussed.[/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]As far as both the US & UA loan guarantee application, both companies have underfunded pension plans. US has not publicly disclosed its liability, but UA told the SEC in October that if interest rates fall and the market value of the assets held in its defined benefit pension plans continue to decline, it would be required to record a pension liability that's likely to exceed $1.5 billion before tax, as of December 31.[/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]I understand in yesterday's letter from the ATSB to UA, the board asked questions about how UA would meet this obligation, which apparently was not adequately addressed by UA's presentation to the ATSB earlier this week.[/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]Meanwhile, shortly after delivering UA the letter, the FOMC cut interest rates by one-half of a percentage point that will further underfund the retirement plans. [/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]This will dramatically affect both UA & US pensions and loan guarantee applications.[/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]With FRB Chairman Alan Greenspan in charge of interest rates and a sitting ATSB member, it's likely the ATSB knew of the rate cut before sending UA the letter.[/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]The pension problem is another hurdle that needs to be addressed to get the loan guarantee by both carriers and this deepening problem will likely require further cuts to obtain the 7 percent profit margin and Fitch recommendation.[/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]In the case of the US pilots, the issue is being discussed today by the MEC, Negotiating Committee, Retirement and Insurance Committee, and ALPA EF&A on how to address this issue.[/FONT][BR][BR][FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]Chip [/FONT][BR][BR][BR][BR][BR]

 

[iflyjetz]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 11/7/2002 8:59:22 AM fatburger wrote:

767jetz-

Maybe a play on UAL will be good for the shareholders but not necessarily good for you personally. All Chip is doing is promoting thought provoking dialogue. Will it happen? Who knows! But obviously it's being discussed.

You have a choice when you log on to read and comment on Chip's posts. Shooting down everything he reports just tells me that just maybe you are either in denial mode or your that much more nervous that he may be on to something. Whatever your M.O. may be I wish you luck with your career.

-fatburger-
----------------
[/blockquote]

Fatburger, you may very well consider it 'thought provoking' dialogue. Chip's posts have a very nasty edge to them. Sorry you don't see it. His theories and speculations have rarely come through, in spite of him citing 'informed' sources.
Am I nervous that he may be on to something? Hell yes, even a broken clock is right twice a day. But for him to weave a bunch of theories and speculation, with his standard 'reliable/informed sources' tag line, into the total destruction of my company on a near daily basis only serves to spread fear and panic among UAL workers.
Denial mode? Not many people in the airline industry are there anymore. There's a lot of fear and uncertainty among airline employees. Chip's posts feed on those fears and uncertainty. It'd be one thing if there were some substance to his grand theories, but so far, nothing that he's speculated on has come true.
How would U employees feel if a UAL employee wrote daily of the possible fragmentation of U? Perhaps a scenario where the airlines who acquire pieces of U take nothing more than gates and slots. No employees or aircraft. Would you be tolerant and say that the poster may be 'on to something?'

 

[fatburger]

iflyjetz,

Chip is doing nothing more than any other reporter/journalist does in this country. It's speculation, it's spin, it's whatever you want to call it. To listen to a bunch of scared employees sit around and take it as Gods Speak is humorous at best.

Mr. iflyjetz, it's an opinion of a regular person, a pilot, a family man who does a lot of research to come to his opinion of the events unfolding in the airline idustry. It just so happens that the current situation at UAL evidently strikes a chord with you. A little advice, this forum is entertainment. There is no inside information that can be had here. You will not find about your impending downgrade, furlough, fragmentation, liquidation (whatever) on this board. Relax and take a step back, we both know the sun will come up tomorrow!

-fatburger-

 

[magsau]

NEWS OF THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last night 3 airline analyst held a high level meeting to discuss the future of the airline industry and what pieces would wind of where depending on such things as the ATSB, IRAQ, Al-Qada and interest rates. These talks involved the market share that the low cost carriers are going to have in ten years. (research shows 50% of domestic market)
______________________________________________________________________
_________

Unfortunately these analyst were me and the two other pilots on my trip and we were holding the high level talks at FL370 over South America.

I guess the point I am trying to make is that no matter who you are or where you are. Whether you are a true analyst or just another employee of an airline we all are worried about our futures. The fact that some analyst at SMITH and Wesson is reviewing items related to my airline do not bother me. These are the same analyst that were telling everyone to buy microstrategy at $200 bucks a share as the bottom was falling out of the market. Heck if those guys are so good why did they not predict this whole mess years ago???????

That is my vent for the night....

 

[Busdrvr]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 11/7/2002 12:22:39 PM chipmunn wrote:

[FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]As far as both the US & UA loan guarantee application, both companies have underfunded pension plans. US has not publicly disclosed its liability, but UA told the SEC in October that if interest rates fall and the market value of the assets held in its defined benefit pension plans continue to decline, it would be required to record a pension liability that's likely to exceed $1.5 billion before tax, as of December 31.[/FONT]

So if UAL takes a 1.5 billion charge on this years numbers, splain to me again how that hurts profitability 5 years from now? If you take a hit during down market years, you'll likely enjoy a pension surplus during the up ones (5 years from now?)

[FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]I understand in yesterday's letter from the ATSB to UA, the board asked questions about how UA would meet this obligation, which apparently was not adequately addressed by UA's presentation to the ATSB earlier this week.[/FONT]

UAL's pensions are better funded on a percentage basis than U, NWA's or AMR's. UAL has actually put more money into them than required by law. Taking a charge against stockholder equity only improves the ability of the fund manager to meet the future investment targets

[FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]Meanwhile, shortly after delivering UA the letter, the FOMC cut interest rates by one-half of a percentage point that will further underfund the retirement plans. [/FONT]
[FONT face=Times New Roman size=3]With FRB Chairman Alan Greenspan in charge of interest rates and a sitting ATSB member, it's likely the ATSB knew of the rate cut before sending UA the letter.[/FONT]

Hmmm, do you think the Greenspan told the other members of the ATSB and all the analyst they employ one of the most closely guarded secrets in the world? Or did he just tell Chip? Funny thing about interest rates, THEY CHANGE. the 10 year t-bond went DOWN (interest rate went UP) after the Fed's announcement indicating Wall Street thinks the agressive cut will lead to a recovery and the interest going up with it. BTW, Greenspan is NOT on the ATSB, one of his representatives is.


----------------
[/blockquote]

 

[Busdrvr]

Boy Magsau, I'll bet you're a barrel of monkeys at the LEC meetings.

 

[AOG-N-IT]

If the Rip Chip a New One parade is over for the night? [img src='http://www.usaviation.com/idealbb/images/smilies/9.gif'] Maybe we can return to thoughts of saving our collective companies and jobs for a moment? [img src='http://www.usaviation.com/idealbb/images/smilies/6.gif']

U is falling victim to not looking outside it's normal status quo patterns for resolve.

It's a safe bet that old tactics and habits are not going to transform us into a competative force.

To date we have idled over a hundred acft..with more targeted for parking. We have trimmed our ranks from 45,000+ and rapidly approaching 32,000.

Every Union agreed to concessions in an attempt to save our airline too...Then we were forced by circumstance to declare Chapter 11 protection...Yet the Ink Flows Red still. Why is this? Are the Employee's slowing down? Are the Planes not flying on time? Are we failing to treat people properly?

The awnsers to all the above are a definate NO

We are setting records for performance...and leading the industry in almost every catagory but profit...Then again I remind you of the sacifices already made...and more projected to come. Do we see a profit forecasted? ....Again the awnser is a clear cut NO

Is this the Employee's fault..or is it still the age old problem of leaders failing to lead...or track a different course of action for us?

Operationally all we have changed is our frequency of flights...or what type of Acft and Contracted Company are flying the routes.

Other companies like DL AA WN and B6 are aggressively moving on our shortcomings...but we only awnser back with more Employee cuts...and projected flights to the Islands. We need to be moving forward..not making retreats or lateral moves. The Business Plan is what is in question here...and the ATSB's reaction to our business plan...or lack there of is going to make or break our future. So far I don't see any drastic changes to anything..unless back-peddling is deemed a drastic and strategic change?[img src='http://www.usaviation.com/idealbb/images/smilies/7.gif']

 

[LDKIAM]

[P]Mags, your own union has disavowed him. ALPA made a code a phone update after his article appeared in the Charlotte Disturber.[/P]
[P] [/P]