Us Parnter Ua Narrows Its August Net Loss

[USA320Pilot]

United Narrows Its August Net Loss

Complete Story

Despite the progress, the $46 million net loss put the carrier on track for a 13th consecutive quarterly deficit.

The nation's No. 2 airline had lost $112 million in July after being a whopping $1.96 billion in the red for the first half of 2003.

Industry observers are taking a wait-and-see attitude until United explains specifically how it intends to be stable and profitable over the long haul.

"United still has not announced a definitive plan for reorganization, nor a definitive business plan for its low-cost carrier nor a definitive date for exiting bankruptcy," said Scott Hamilton, a Seattle-based airline analyst and consultant for Leeham Companies LLC.

"Management has yet to demonstrate that it really has a business plan for the successful long-term future of United," he said.

Bankruptcy and restructuring expert Bill Brandt said United must solve its pension dilemma -- it owes billions of dollars in required pension payments over the next five years -- and other challenges as well as show better financial results.

Respectfully,

Chip

 

[Dilligas]

UAL Readers:

Please don't take the bait.

This type of stuff is as much an embarassment to most U employees as it is an annoyance to you. Please consider the source.

Thank you to those of you that have been gracious enough to come over here and offer your support and solidarity to us in our latest battle. It is a rough time and the labor groups at both airlines should pull together and demand leadership and justice from our respective management groups. This type of silliness is just designed to provoke you.

The best way to annoy someone who is trying to annoy you is to ignore them.

 

[Dea Certe]

I agree with Dilligas. UAL folks, please don't take the bait. I appreciate your kind words and thoughts during this time and know that most U employees are hoping for the best for all airline employees.

Dea

 

[USA320Pilot]

Dilligas & Dea:

With all due respect, UnitedChicago and other posters started the sub-title restrictions, not me.

What's interesting is how some United employees can endorse board censorship, but then lack the same decorum. It's somewhat hypocritical, isn't it?

Regardless, I stand by my comments regarding US Airways' business partner and Dave Carperter's story titled "United Narrows Its August Net Loss" supports my argument.

For example, Scott Hamilton (who is a bright and informed industry consultant) said, "Management has yet to demonstrate that it really has a business plan for the successful long-term future of United."

Dilligas & Dea, who first said on this website the same type of comment as Hamilton quote above and said "United management was stuck in a quagmire of mud"?

Finally, there's no bait here, just the facts from the Associated Press. United is sinking and the company's spin will not change the facts that the company failed and may not emerge from bankruptcy, just like what happened at US Airways.

Respectfully,

Chip

 

[USA320Pilot]

Dilligas and Dea:

What's your opinion of Carpenter' comment of "The nation's No. 2 airline had lost $112 million in July after being a whopping $1.96 billion in the red for the first half of 2003?"

What's interesting about these "whopping" losses is that this happened after United entered its formal reorganization and stopped paying its bills.

Respectfully,

Chip

 

[Busdrvr]

Chip, since U is going to take delivery of all of UAL's 767's and 757's, plus takeover ORD, DEN, IAD and SFO (not to mention the Pac routes), aren't ALL UAL customers and employees future employees and customers of U? i have recebntly flown U so i think I count. On the UAL board, i explained how the whole "paper loss" thing works. I invite you to go read the post, it wil apparently be rather educational. I would recommend a Community college level accounting course if the concepts are still diff to understand. Lower lease rates and airplanes that are "worthless' on paper will actually ensure UAL a 7% margin. do the Fitch ratings count extrodinary items?
You brought up an interesting point however on another one of your, IMHO anti-UAL post. If U, whose pension plans were less funded when normed to revenue than UALs prior to termination, get it's pilot pension re-instated, how will U then be able to meet the government required parameters for the loan? Will U be technically in default? Will big Dave, who demanded pension termination as a precondition of DIP funding, pull the plug and sell off the pieces in an ICT/UTC? Keep in mind that while the stock market has "boomed" since the beginning of the year, increasing the pension health at other airlines, U's grossley underfunded pilot pension was earning good old safe bond yields courtesy of the PBGC. that means it will be even MORE underfunded. Can the politically appointed ATSB get away with giving out a loan to a company, U, that, given changes to the pension laws, would not even come CLOSE to the 7% ror while denying one to a much better financial case UAL, who will emerge with the lowest hub and spoke CASM, and industry leading revenue growth? will the Speaker stand for that? The Cal, and Co delegations? Chip, I want your permission to post on this forum a post you made on a more secure sight a couple years ago, that shows that this UTC goes all the way back to Wolf and a backroom conspiracy to "sue" UAL for billions and wrest control away from UAL and make Wolf king of the world? I think It's important that we all realize that this UTC conspiracy is multigenerational and has been in the works since even before 9/11. heck, you could probably make an argument that 9/11 itself, by weakening UAL to the point that this thing could be pulled off (and get Big Daves money involved), was part of the overall plot. Was it really Osama Bin Wolfie, and Shiek Mohammed Dutta behind the attacks..... Thanks for the laughs tonight. How anybody with even a rudimentary knowledge of accounting can spin UAL's monthly report negatively...man thats art. you must be proud. Too bad Sadam doesn't need a new information minister. You beat that guy hands down

 

[USA320Pilot]

Busdrvr:

Please conform to the decorum established by UnitedChicago, 767jetz, and yourself.

Respectfully,

Chip

 

[USFlyer]

Folks -

Get a grip. Chip posted a link to an article and pulled out some paragraphs. If you don't like the contents of the article, contact the newspaper's editor. Chip's posting of these articles makes it easier for the rest of us who don't have time to scour the web for each story.

 

[Busdrvr]

Busdrvr:

Please conform to the decorum established by UnitedChicago, 767jetz, and yourself.

Respectfully,

Chip

Please quote me Chip. when was i part of a plot? I just quit responding to grossley inaccurate posts. Unfortunately, all of them just happened to be yours. i've NEVER started a UAL only thread. As for decorum, not one of those UAL only strings disparaged U in any way. Best of Luck to the rest of the U family. these are tough times and I'm confident that we will both emerge vibrant and successful airlines

 

[USA320Pilot]

Busdrvr:

Busdrvr asked: If U, whose pension plans were less funded when normed to revenue than UALs prior to termination, get it's pilot pension re-instated, how will U then be able to meet the government required parameters for the loan?

Chip answers: H.R. 2719, the Airline Pension Act of 2003, permits the restoration of US Airways' pilots pension plan. If the bill becomes law, US Airways will lower its ALPA pension obligations from the current DC Plan, which will improve profitability and make it easier to meet loan guarantee requirements.

Busdrver asked: Will U be technically in default?

Chip answers: No, in fact the airline will likely have a stronger credit rating.

Busdrvr asked: Will big Dave, who demanded pension termination as a precondition of DIP funding, pull the plug and sell off the pieces in an ICT/UTC?

Chip answers: No, in fact it improves the odds that a derivative of the UCT will occur.

Busdrvr said: Can the politically appointed ATSB get away with giving out a loan to a company, U, that, given changes to the pension laws, would not even come CLOSE to the 7% ror while denying one to a much better financial case UAL, who will emerge with the lowest hub and spoke CASM, and industry leading revenue growth?

Chip comments: Busdrvr, I do not understand your question. I find it interesting that ALPA President Duane Woerth said United just made its DIP financing requirements this summer, the creditor's committee objected to the company's request to have a six-month exclusive period to file its POR, and the airline said it had significant issues before it can emerge just last Friday, yet you seem to believe UAL will have "the lowest hub and spoke CASM and industry leading revenue growth."

In addition, Woerth said United does not have anybody who will provide the airline exit financing and the ATSB has increased the requirements on United three times to qualify for a revised loan guarantee.

I believe a comparison of what investors think of the US Airways and United business plans sends an interesting message. By last count US Airways had seven post bankruptcy investors and United has none, which is a requirement to emerge from an in-court restructuring.

Respectfully,

Chip

 

[Busdrvr]

"Chip answers: H.R. 2719, the Airline Pension Act of 2003, permits the restoration of US Airways' pilots pension plan. If the bill becomes law, US Airways will lower its ALPA pension obligations from the current DC Plan, which will improve profitability and make it easier to meet loan guarantee requirements."

OK, i get it. UAL gets the same pension exemptions as U, has a much lower level of underfunding than U yet That makes it "Easier" for U to meet the obligations.... OK


"yet you seem to believe UAL will have "the lowest hub and spoke CASM and industry leading revenue growth.""

OK, slooowwly. UAL went from having NEGATIVE YOY yield growth to POSITIVE 15% YOY WHILE IN BK. meanwhile the industry average is 9%. hmmmm. How would you define "industry leading revenue growth"? I think i know. you'd say the 9% is because that company signs your check.... And Yes, UAL will have CASM's lower than CAL and LCC Casm lower than FRNT, and i didn't hear it from woerth.

Speaking of Woerth...

"I find it interesting that ALPA President Duane Woerth said United just made its DIP financing requirements this summer,"

When did he get on UAL's BOD, the UCC? If he actually KNEW something, was old elliot Spitzer waiting to throw him in the slammer for divulging insider information? Do you actually have even an estimate of what UAL's cumulative EBITAR currently is? Do you want me to tell you? I'll give you a hint, it wasn't in USAToday. In any case it was AT LEAST 200 million in profit for August alone. why do you insist on continually bringing up irrelevent lease restructuring cost in an attempt to make the numbers look bad? With all do respect, this obsession is downright scary. when will you finally acknowledge you were wrong? When we emerge intact? What financial numbers will actually convince you? how come you can put together a nifty chart that shows UAL when we were at the bottom of RASM, but now, you can't seem to bring yourself to admit the absolutely incredible revenue turnaround, and where that puts UAL on the chart. i'll be honest chip, i used to read your little column, and found it informative sometimes, but man, I honestly wonder if you are letting emotions get in the way of judgement. take two steps back and look at the big picture.

 

[USA320Pilot]

Busdrvr:

When United posters created the sub-title thread limiting who could post I respected the request, but you seem to not have the same decorum. Why is that? Regardless, I'll answer your questions, but this will be the last time I respond to you.

Busdrvr said: OK, i get it. UAL gets the same pension exemptions as U, has a much lower level of underfunding than U yet That makes it "Easier" for U to meet the obligations.

Chip answers: United does not have a lower level of underfunding than US Airways. Furthermore, why do you keep making comparisons to US Airways? This thread is about US Airways' business partners difficulties, not US Airways. United is in bankruptcy whereas US Airways has emerged.

Busdrvr siad: OK, slooowwly. UAL went from having NEGATIVE YOY yield growth to POSITIVE 15% YOY WHILE IN BK. meanwhile the industry average is 9%. hmmmm. How would you define "industry leading revenue growth"? I think i know. you'd say the 9% is because that company signs your check.... And Yes, UAL will have CASM's lower than CAL and LCC Casm lower than FRNT, and i didn't hear it from woerth.

Chip answers: Busdrvr, mathematically speaking, when your RASM is dead last in the industry any improvement will have a larger percentage gain -- thus it's easy to see how management is spinning the number. What will be important is the quarterly RASM on a relative basis. When the third quarter results are out and the RASM is announced than we will know better on how United is performing. Regardless, ALPA EF&A and our union president are very sanguine about United's prospects without a legislative solution to the pension problem and the creditors committee objected to United having a six-month exclusive period to file its POR.

Furthermore, the analyst comments in the article above seem to not share your rosy thoughts about your company's prospects.

Busdrvr said: i used to read your little column, and found it informative sometimes, but man, I honestly wonder if you are letting emotions get in the way of judgement. take two steps back and look at the big picture.

Chip comments: Busdrvr, I'm not the one emotional. Furthermore, if you believe my "emotions get in the way of judgment" than I request that you do not respond to a thread that I specifically asked you to not join, just like the United posters did and started on their message board.

Again, for comparison purposes, seven investors have put their money where their mouth is by buying a piece of US Airways' stock and nobody has stepped up to invest in United. Furthermore, Woerth said that United has no exit financing available except the ATSB, which may not be enough. I didn't say it -- ALPA"s president said it to the US Airway MEC in open session on September 11. Busdrvr, that's not emotion -- it's fact.

Respectfully,

Chip

 

[Busdrvr]

Chip, I am not allowed to say you lied, so I'll just say "I disagree with your assesment of your activity with respect to the UAL board" You absolutely posted and only quit after you got no responses.


"Furthermore, why do you keep making comparisons to US Airways?"

Uh Chip, this is the US board... U is if nothing else a minimum benchmark for ATSB approval...

"United does not have a lower level of underfunding than US Airways."

When the same pension assumptions are used (ROR, Discount rate), you are "Factually incorrect" I invite you to provide data to prove otherwise (can't can you).

"when your RASM is dead last in the industry any improvement will have a larger percentage gain -- thus it's easy to see how management is spinning the number."

Again "factually incorrect"

"What will be important is the quarterly RASM on a relative basis. When the third quarter results are out and the RASM is announced than we will know better on how United is performing."

how is it that you can, with any level of credibility, make "informed" comments WRT UAL pension funding (which isn't public knowledge) but yet you can't take last years numbers and multiply them by 1.15? Then you can take the other players and multiply by 1.08. not a perfect measure, but more accurate than your finger in the wind pension estimates. If you did you'd see UAL AT LEAST the middle of the pack. I thought you had this stuff wired? Just so we can figure out who the "credible" voice is, UAL will have Q3 RASM above CAL and NWA and slightly above AMR. You wanna make a prediction OTHER than an UTC with no date attached that never seems to happen?

"union president are very sanguine about United's prospects without a legislative solution to the pension problem"

Misery sure loves company.

 

[LGA Fleet Service]

You know something? These "So and So only" threads are a crock.

You want to post without any dissenting voices chiming in? Set up a server,pay for some bandwidth and use a password protected environment.

As long as my postings don't violate the guidelines set down by the administrators of this site, I will post anywhere I choose if I have something to offer to the discussion at hand.


Message Ends

 

[flythewing]

As long as my postings don't violate the guidelines set down by the administrators of this site, I will post anywhere I choose if I have something to offer to the discussion at hand.

And that's a fact, JACK!