Us Airways U United Airlines Update

[USA320Pilot]

I believe most observers were pleasantly surprised by October’s pricing data for the entire industry. However, it appears that demand remains problematic and there should be some concern if capacity returns next year.

The ATA data indicated domestic and system-wide RASM improved 5.7% and 5.9% respectively in October, despite the reinstallation of segment fees and a weak month for leisure travel.

Transatlantic RASM was up 6.5 percent, while the Latin and Pacific traffic realized their largest improvements this year, both up 6 percent, which is particularly good news for United.

Reports indicate the holiday season is shaping up well and the positive trend should continue in November with maybe a +4 to 6 percent increase in domestic RASM, as well as a similar increase in December, year-over-year.

Now in regard to United employee comments in this thread, what I find interesting is if my comments were not true, then why do the United employees waste their time posting on the US Airways board and shoot the messenger?

Meanwhile, the facts are this.

Although United has reduced its expenses and is benefiting from the industry uptick, the company cannot emerge from bankruptcy until four major obstacles are met: the pension must be funded or other was addressed, the EETCs must be satisfactorily resolved, the company must reach an agreement on multiple municipal bond defaults, and the Dulles/ACA fiasco must be resolved.

If ACA does leave the United Express network, how can United quickly replace about 100 regional aircraft and maintain the hub? Where's the regional lift going to immediately come from?

As I said before, once US Airways stablizes its position and United emerges, then I suspect we will see some form of a corporate transaction between the business partners.

What I find most interesting is that I do not post or view the Untied board, but United employees visit the US Airways board multiple times per day and post in response to my comments. If my comments were of no value, then why do the Untied employees waste bandwidth?

Regards,

Chip

 

[Busdrvr]

Chip, why do you have to do a sleezy thing like throw around "Untied". Yeah, yeah, an accident right? Twice. Is that what you do when you start looking foolish? Start tossing around names?

If what you dream/ hallucinate/ imagine was "true', then why would we try to "disprove" it? Wouldn't we be out finding a box to live in (as our company would cease to exist). You theories are attacked for one simple reason, the are based on absolutely ludicrous assumptions.

EETC's: With the CURRENT cost structure in place, UAL posted a PROFIT. Even if they AREN'T resolved, UAL remains no worse than they are today.

Pension: Big steps taken today

Muni bonds: UAL appears much further along than U, whose been OUT of BK. Why would the bonds prevent UAL from completing the restructure? U completed without it. BTW, DEN has been settled (strike one UTC city...)

ACA: If there is an agreement, here is where it will be, and who knows, maybe that's why UAL was at CCY. To explore a deal whereby U gets to be the new ACA in Dulles. you must be proud!!!

 

[USA320Pilot]

Busdrvr:

I first reported in this forum today's October economic United news and then United employees filled the board with a lot of bandwidth largely made up with "pent up" joy, probably due to bankruptcy fear. However, there are still major issues to be resolved.

In fact, Glenn Tilton told the AP, "We still have work to do, but United's steady progress shows that we are creating an airline that will be profitable and sustainable for the long term.''

The comments I bolded above likely represent the four points that are preventing United from emerging, but I have repeatedly said I believe United would emerge, haven't I?

Did you forget that in your emotional bursts today?

Busdrvr, by the way, can you tell me why just a few short weeks ago Jeffrey Stanley, manager of economic analysis and regulatory affairs at United, speaking at The Future of the Airline Industry conference at Washington University in St. Louis made the following comments? "If things stay the way the are now, there will be several Chapter 7 (bankruptcy liquidations) down the road, and that's not good for anyone. The most feasible solution to the situation is consolidation in the domestic airline industry," he said.

Busdrvr, I was just wondering, why would the United executive make that statement in prepared comments?

Maybe it would be wise if you didn't let the facts get in the way of your emotion, which likely obscures reality.

Regards,

Chip

 

[Fly]

Chip Munn Posted on Nov 20 2003, 10:02 PM

What I find most interesting is that I do not post or view the Untied board, but United employees visit the US Airways board multiple times per day and post in response to my comments. If my comments were of no value, then why do the Untied employees waste bandwidth?

We don't "visit" any particular boards. I go to forums and press "Today's Discussions" It gives you the most recent post first and goes right down the line with no regard to what board it came from. (obviously you already know that, don't ya Chip?) You can keep reposting the same message over and over but it isn't going to change the fact that in all likelyhood, US is going to cease being a international carrier and become more of a regional. United (not Untied) is in a much better position than US (and we're in BK! ) No amount of typing here is going to change that either.

 

[ClueByFour]

If ACA does leave the United Express network, how can United quickly replace about 100 regional aircraft and maintain the hub? Where's the regional lift going to immediately come from?

U mainline furloughs in the brand spanking new EMBs.

Here is a UCT for you, that fits your theory of US "waiting" for a UCT as the reason for the PIT negotiations being "held hostage." MAA flies out of IAD, feeding the substantial UA transcon and international ops from IAD. Hey, it's "super regional" (those are some big "small" jets, super even), it's interesting, and it will "leverage the revenue streams from the code-share and *A."

Finally. I UCT/ICT I can actually see happening.

 

[767jetz]

Chip,

Why do you avoid legitimate questions when someone tries to hold you accountable for past statements that turn out to be wrong? Surely as an airline captain you understand the concept of accountability, don't you?

Once again... Didn't you say over and over again that UA would miss DIP targets by the end of the year? WRONG.

Didn't you quote Duane Woerth over and over again as one of your reliable sources? He was WRONG.

Didn't you tell us all over and over again that your sources predict UA will lose $400 MILLION in Q4? Looks like that will be WRONG again.

Why won't you concede that your sources have been and continue to be less accurate than you claim? What I find interesting is your inability to ever admit that you are wrong.

767jetz

"The truth will hurt you before it sets you free!"
<_<

 

[usfliboi]

Chip I support y our therory about a possible uct.... One only has to look that whats facing both companies. Who knows where its going but in the end there will be some sort of deal with these two carriers. Thahnks for your opinions and thoughts, they make good reading and are thought provoking.

 

[michael707767]

"If things stay the way the are now, there will be several Chapter 7 (bankruptcy liquidations) down the road, and that's not good for anyone. The most feasible solution to the situation is consolidation in the domestic airline industry," he said.

Chip,
In my opinion, consolidation is not the answer. From a practical standpoint, what is the difference between one airline going CH7....and two airlines merging only to dump enough capacity to be back to the original size?

Looking at the industry as a whole, I don't see anymore capacity or jobs if there is a wave of consolidation. All I see is a situation where it seems like no one went out of business, when in reality the same number of people have lost their jobs as they would have in a CH7 situation.

No thanks. I'd rather go it alone. I am junior, and in a merger I will surely loose my job. If we stay seperate, well 50-50 if I make it or not, but at least I have a chance.
Michael

 

[Busdrvr]

Chip, you are the one that got all third grade on us with the "untied" posts. UAQL financial and operational performance are anything but. Your "slam" was truely the work of an unemotional level headed poster. Can we expect your post to include "yo mamma" next month as the UTC drifts farther away from reality?

I've listened to Glenn at LENGTH, in person. He DOES support mergers. But NOT in the US. He's an oil guy. He wants GLOBAL consolidation. His DREAM IMHO would be something on the lines of a LH-UAL, or a SIN, UAL merger. Or even multiple international companies. If you just got hammered in a particular market, do you attempt to merge with someone who got hammered EVEN WORSE to prevent it from happening again?

 

[PITbull]

Good point busdrvr.

 

[USA320Pilot]

Busdrvr:

I'm not going to argue with you, but you're wrong. Bronner, Dutta, Siegel and other US Airways representatives have been meeting with Tilton, Brace, Hacker, Taylor and others to discuss a corporate transaction between the parties. Will something occur? I believe so, but maybe not. Regardless, they have been meeting in Chicago and New York presumably with investment bankers, antitrust attorneys, and other advisors. You can believe me or not. I really do not care.

By the way, who first reported the news in the hyperlink below on this website yesterday? How could that be?

See Story

Regards,

Chip

 

[bigbusdrvr]

Busdrvr:

I'm not going to argue with you, but you're wrong. Bronner, Dutta, Siegel and other US Airways representatives have been meeting with Tilton, Brace, Hacker, Taylor and others to discuss a corporate transaction between the parties. Will something occur? I believe so, but maybe not. Regardless, they have been meeting in Chicago and New York presumably with investment bankers, antitrust attorneys, and other advisors. You can believe me or not. I really do not care.

By the way, who first reported the news in the hyperlink below on this website yesterday? How could that be?

See Story

Regards,

Chip

Chip,

With UNITED reporting profits, Usair reporting same ole same woe is me BS. What are the chances Bronner will pony up monies for a purchase of anything?? If anything I believe you and I are in for a very rough ride out of town by the UNITED employees, if any UCT were to occure. I believe our goose is cooked, No need to drag UNITED down with us. Save your nickels and start churning out resumes. Happy Holidays!! another year of this Usair nightmare is about to be behind us!! :angry:

 

[USA320Pilot]

Bigbusdrvr:

There are specific reasons both companies are putting out their individual spin. With all due respect, Siegel has you right were he wants you. I'm not trying to minimize the issues and there are things Siegel has done I do not agree with, but he is a very bright man.

You do not graduate at the top of your Harvard Business School class without being very bright.

How about expectations are being managed...

By the way, who predicted everything Jim Sprayregen told Judge Wedoff today. How could this have been known and presented on this website before it was presented to the bankruptcy court?

Bigbusdrvr, Fly, Iflyjetz, Cosmo, Ukridge, Ohcaptainron, Busdrvr, 767jetz, and others, what's your opinion of the hyperlinked article below. Furthermore, who first reported this information on this website?

See Story

Regards,

Chip

 

[ClueByFour]

Busdrvr:

I'm not going to argue with you, but you're wrong. Bronner, Dutta, Siegel and other US Airways representatives have been meeting with Tilton, Brace, Hacker, Taylor and others to discuss a corporate transaction between the parties. Will something occur? I believe so, but maybe not. Regardless, they have been meeting in Chicago and New York presumably with investment bankers, antitrust attorneys, and other advisors. You can believe me or not. I really do not care.

By the way, who first reported the news in the hyperlink below on this website yesterday? How could that be?

See Story

Regards,

Chip

Two things:

Please point to a published report that definitively states that the executives on both sides have been meeting and have been disussing a merger during said meetings.

As for who first reported any news, if you read that article, you will find the following quote:

" That and other issues, including complex aircraft lease negotiations, "could offset the timing" of the planned first-half 2004 bankruptcy exit, Sprayregen said.

As United has outlined in the past, municipal bond litigation, various claims against the airline and underfunded pension liabilities also need to be resolved, Sprayregen said."

In other words, United itself has been disclosing these issues for some time. I guess then, to answer your question, United reported these things.

 

[ZMAN777]

By the way, who predicted everything Jim Sprayregen told Judge Wedoff today. How could this have been known and presented on this website before it was presented to the bankruptcy court?

Chip,

What you happened to mention in yesterday's post is nothing new that most industry followers haven't already heard. With the exception of the ACA question, I've personally heard the same for the past 10 months in every meeting I've had with the Company at WHQ.

Have executives from the two companies met? Sure they have. But there are a myriad of reasons they do this and the subjects CODESHARE, and STAR ALLIANCE happen to be at the top of the list.

Most, if not all of the folks I speak with at WHQ, say that anything approaching a merger is pure fantasy. What they've also told me is that UAL has already identified Int'l/domestic markets to enter/re-enter following BK exit. These markets have little or nothing to do with U except for feed to our hubs and vice versa.

Just wishing something will happen does not mean it will. Right now I'd have to agree with BigBusDriver in that U will have it's work cut out for it to continue forward. Don't take that wrong. Myself and everyone else I've spoken with here at UAL definitely wants U to survive and prosper. The cards simply are what they are! Neither you, myself, or anyone that posts here has anything to do with those.

As for UAL we've done better than anyone a year ago would've expected. BUT, we're not out of the woods yet. As Tilton has said there's still work to be done before we can kick back and pat ourselves on the back. I think what UAL is doing is focusing on competing, lowering costs, and increasing revenues. To that end I'd have to give GT high marks. I wish for all the employees at U that DS were doing as well.

Take a look at this. UAL is in BK, beginning to turn a profit, engaging the competition, increasing revenues and morale, IMHO, is pretty darn high. U on the otherhand has exited BK, isn't taking the fight to its competition, revenues are not increasing, and from I read on these pages...morale is nearing an all-time low! So much for your whiz-kid from Harvard. Quite a study in contrasts I'd say.

Just my thoughts. Once again, here's wishing all my fellow brethern at U nothing but the best. Have a great Thanksgiving!

Cheers,
Z B)