US Airways' Reagan Washington National-San Francisco Proposal is Best Choice for DOT Exemption Slots

[JFK Fleet Service]

[BR][FONT size=1]Explain again to me how giving the slots to an airline that already controls a sizeable percentage of the traffic at DCA is beneficial?[/FONT][BR][BR][FONT size=1]U hardly fits the New Entrant criteria, I'd expect to see them go to Frontier.[/FONT]

 

[motnot]

Right, JFK. U's application is a joke, especially this attempt to cast the airline as a new entrant at DCA. U most certainly does not fit the definition.

I think AWA and ALK have the best chance of landing the slot exemptions, with FRNT a distant third. IMO.

 

[phllax]

The DC-10 that landed at DCA was a United bird.

Also, I would think they would use a 757 on the route rather than a 321 because of the lack of power on the Airbus. A fully loaded 757 would have no problem making the trip west, even in the winter with heavy winds.

 

[DCAflyer]

motnot said:

Right, JFK. U's application is a joke, especially this attempt to cast the airline as a new entrant at DCA. U most certainly does not fit the definition.

I think AWA and ALK have the best chance of landing the slot exemptions, with FRNT a distant third. IMO.

DCAflyer replies:

Not only are A-west, Alaska, and Frontier not new entrants into DCA, each already own exemption slots. It would be patently unfair to give them another. Funny that American, UAL and DAL don't think their exmemption applications are a joke.

 

[Cosmo]

Actually, by DOT's definition, HP, AS and F9 ARE new entrants at DCA while US, with over 100 daily DCA slots, clearly is not. The new entrant label only requires that an airline have 20 or fewer daily slots at DCA, and it makes no distinction regarding normal or beyond-perimeter slots.

Another point to remember is that carriers with hubs outside the previous 1,250 mile limit were given priority to receive the beyond-perimeter slots. That's why DL and UA applied (for their hubs in SLC and LAX, respectively). And if DCA-SFO was such a strong route, why didn't UA, the carrier with a hub at the SFO end, apply for the route?

But the final point to consider is that DOT has used these beyond-perimeter slots to strengthen smaller and weaker carriers. That's why HP, AS and F9 have five of the six current beyond-perimeter slots. And of the applicants for the sixth and final slot, IMHO the six large network majors by definition don't qualify (their current financial problems notwithstanding), HP already has three of the six available slots and thus won't get another, and AS doesn't have a hub at LAX. Therefore (drumroll, please), the slot will be awarded to F9 for its second daily DCA-DEN flight.

 

[DLFlyer31]

The DOT might also be hesitant to award a route authority to a financially unstable airline currently in CH 11 BK. The DOT has already been burned twice by financially unstable carriers. The DOT gave the authority to TWA largely out of pity and shortly thereafter, TWA went under. N7 took a similar path.

So, it might be smart to give the authority to an airline that is a little more stable...plus that fulfills the intial goals of the beyond perimeter slots. Following that logic, I rank them ALK,FRNT,DL. US,AA and UA all tie for last.

 

[funguy2]

[BR][BR]
[BLOCKQUOTE][BR]----------------[BR]On 11/4/2002 4:09:19 PM Cosmo wrote:[BR][BR]But the final point to consider is that DOT has used these beyond-perimeter slots to strengthen smaller and weaker carriers.  That's why HP, AS and F9 have five of the six current beyond-perimeter slots.  And of the applicants for the sixth and final slot, IMHO the six large network majors by definition don't qualify (their current financial problems notwithstanding), HP already has three of the six available slots and thus won't get another, and AS doesn't have a hub at LAX.  Therefore (drumroll, please), the slot will be awarded to F9 for its second daily DCA-DEN flight.----------------[/BLOCKQUOTE][BR][BR]Actually - AS is counting on the same feed that at LAX as TW did to win the route the first time. TWA used a codeshare agreement with AA Eagle to promote the idea that they could connect pax to DCA via LAX who have no other one-stop connection options. More or less they pretended to have an LAX hub with Eagle. The only online connection from LAX for DCA pax would have been Kona, HA. It worked... They got the slot...[BR][BR]When TWA was merged into AA, the exemption did not go to AA by federal law, which requires the slot to be given via a new process. It went to AS on the strength of their connecting opportunities at SEA. [BR][BR]Now that N7 has relinqueshed their slot, I think AS has the same opportunity that TW had and more. Not only does AS codeshare with AA Eagle, but they can also offer online conx to places like Boise, Medford, Eugene, Vancouver, and Mexico. Remember, the intent of the legislation was to allow for one-stop connections to communities that could not get one-stop connections to DCA due to their proximity to Western Hubs outside the Perimeter rule. Example, the only way to get a one-stop connection from DCA to Yuma is over LAX or PHX. Nobody flies Yuma-DFW.[BR][BR]Also, the LAX area press and Congressional delegation were very critical of the fact that LAX lost the service.[BR][BR]Since Frontier already has 1 DEN trip, I think AS wins LAX. I think the top two are close with the others far behind in my ranking:[BR][BR]1. AS - LAX - using conx to AA Eagle plus Horizon and Alaska[BR][BR]2. F9 - DEN - using conx to Great Lakes codeshare markets[BR][BR]3. US - SFO - strong application, using UA's SFO hub for connections, but US does not fit the orginal intent of the bill... however, sympathy for US could help this one into No. 3 instead of No. 4 where it should be...[BR][BR]4. DL - SLC - strong application, using their online SLC conx especially to places like Idaho Falls and Elko, NV, but DL doesn't fit the original intent either.[BR][BR]5. HP - LAS - the already have 3 beyond slots, can't imagine any carrier being given more than 1/2 the beyond slots. Also, HP doesn't serve alot of the destinations that would be covered by DL or US/UA like Eureka, or Helena.[BR][BR]6. UA/AA - LAX - if they want LAX, they will go with AS...[BR][BR]

 

[Cosmo]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 11/4/2002 4:57:40 PM funguy2 wrote:

Actually - AS is counting on the same feed that at LAX as TW did to win the route the first time. TWA used a codeshare agreement with AA Eagle to promote the idea that they could connect pax to DCA via LAX who have no other one-stop connection options. More or less they "pretended" to have an LAX hub with Eagle. The only online connection from LAX for DCA pax would have been Kona, HA. It worked... They got the slot...
----------------
[/blockquote]
While you are correct regarding the above similarities, keep in mind that TWA got the DCA-LAX route for one reason and one reason only: pure, unadulterated power politics!

At the time of the initial beyond-perimeter slot awards, the Democratic Clinton administration was in office in Washington that reacted to strong pressure applied by two Democratic Senators from California, lots of Democratic Congressmen (and women) from Southern California, and the Minority Leader of the House of Representatives from Missouri. Today, TWA is gone and the political landscape in Washington is much different than it was in 2000. Satisfying California Democrats or the Minority Leader of the House is not very high on the Bush Administration's list of priorities. Thus, I believe that the current administration will decide to award to last beyond-perimeter slot to Frontier, a carrier with a hub in the middle of numerous Republican-leaning Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states.

And politics aside, Frontier is a much smaller carrier and is financially weaker than Alaska. Plus Frontier has a true hub in DEN rather than the hub with mostly other carriers' flights that Alaska has proposed for its DCA-LAX service. This works in Frontier's favor in terms of the carrier's need for the DCA slot award as well as meeting the intent of the legislation creating the beyond-perimeter slots.

So combining the political and airline-related issues, that's how I arrived at my prediction that Frontier would be awarded the last beyond-perimeter slot for DCA-DEN service. JMHO.

 

[DHG750R]

Operationally , a B757 is the best choice. The A319 would be next best . the A320 would be slightly worse and the A321 marginal at best.

The B757 is the best performing narrowbody aircraft we have.

 

[UA777DEN]

[P]Let me remind everyone that Frontier is currently evaluating the possibility of converting some options to A320s.[/P]
[P]Hint hint, there is a very good chance you'll see A320s in Frontier colors by 2004.[/P]
[P]They'd be used on Frontier's high density West Coast and East Coast routes.[/P]
[P]Regards[/P]