United for sale

[csrgal]

Sorry USA320, you will never fly that 747.

Well Fly, I have heard UA was interested in merging with US but that the sticking point is UA wants no part of the US A320 pilots. Give me a break --- no one that knows anything is posting on these boards. These boards are pure speculation with people quoting all kinds of crap. These same people wished us dead during BK and were quoting all kinds of junk about how we were closing in the next few days and blah, blah, etc. I find these boards very entertaining.

 

[Bulscu]

Unlike Project Minnow, which I reported before the news media, where according to the news media reported former US Airways CEO Dave Siegel and United Executives wokred on a plan to "cquire United Airlines, the nation's No. 2 carrier. That option was code-named 'Project Minnow,' with US Airways as the small fish gobbling the bigger one."

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I believe that airline executives are discussing different M&A scenarios and I have no idea how this will unfold.

What I do know is this:

1. The AP reported on September 22 following three years of "hard work" with financial restructuring in bankruptcy, UAL, parent of United Airlines, now is on solid footing to participate in the merger and acquisition market, CEO Glenn Tilton told reporters at the Executives' Club of Chicago.

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2. News agencies Speculated that United may be destined for an eventual merger with another U.S. carrier intensified Monday with its reported hiring of Goldman Sachs & Co. to explore strategic options. Goldman is expected to help United assess the value of its domestic and international holdings, advise it on sales or purchases of domestic or international routes and scout for mergers, according to Crain's, citing unidentified people close to United.

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3. Want to marry Continental? Ask Northwest first - "But any consolidation involving Continental would be complicated by the relationship between it and Northwest. Northwest holds a so-called 'golden share' in Continental, which gives it the right to block mergers involving the Houston-based carrier, according to Continental filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission."

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4. Continental Airlines Inc. CEO Larry Kellner said Monday that his company has no plans to merge with another carrier despite industry speculation it could join forces with United Airlines.

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5. According to the Chicago Tribune, ss (Glenn) Tilton charts United's future course, the big question emerges: Would United be an acquiring airline or a takeover target?

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6. In a report titled "Such A Deal: United Is Now "Officially" For Sale", airline analyst and consultant Mike Boyd reported, "It's official. United Airlines is now on the block. The For Sale sign is posted. United employees: If you thought going through bankruptcy was a fun ride, a merger will be the emotional and financial equivalent of a supersonic dash through Disneyland's Pirates of The Caribbean. 'Cept in this case the Pirates win. You lose. As will communities and airports around the nation. United grandly announced today that it had hired an investment bank to, as was stated in perfect Airlinese in Crain's Chicago Business: " ...explore a range of strategic options, including possible mergers with other carriers..." Which means, United management appears to have tossed in the towel in regard to moving United forward as an airline system (not that they ever had a towel in the first place) and is trying to merge the airline and then get out."

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7. Boyd continued, "As another ominous sign, United officials have been quoted using the surefire buzzword that usually indicates that strategic planning is now on the shelf in place of fast gains: they've used the term: increase shareholder value. Not "competitive value." Not "airline value," but shareholder value, which means increasing the price of stock certificates, not necessarily the value of the airline as a vibrant, growing entity. It's often a term that indicates the management goal is to simply get stock price up, not necessarily increase the competitive value of the airline."

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8. According to the Rocky Mountain News, Tiltions new employment "deal sets his salary at $850,000, but he'll also likely get at least $3.4 million in long- term stock awards annually, according to documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission."

See Story

9. US Arways Files Automatic Shelf Registration on Form S-3 - October 4, 2006 Why did US Airways do it? According to an internal employee memo, "As we all know, the airline industry is quite volatile and market conditions can change significantly - literally overnight. The flexibility that a shelf registration statement provides is a way to mitigate some of the timing risk that companies are faced with when they need to quickly raise additional capital. Taking these considerations into account, our management team wanted the flexibility that a shelf registration provides."

USA320Pilot comments: Interestingly, Glenn Tilton just negotiated a new employment contract, with meaningful incentive pay (stock and/or stock options). The Crains and other news agencies reported United hired Goldman Sachs as an investment banker to explore strategic options to enhance "shareholder value". What new shareholder could see thier personal holdings see a significant capital gain if he sold some or part of United? Glenn Tilton with his new contract, which was announced about the same time as the firm hired the IB.

I do not have any specific information this time on what may or may not occur in industry M&A or fragmentation strategic transaction(s). It appears from the News Media that United is in play, Tilton could obtain meaningful incentive pay of United is sold in whole or in part, because according to some reports it may sell the airline and/or assets or it could acquire an airline or its assets.

I personally do not believe US Airways and United will merge because US Airways CEO Doug Parker has indicated he wants to be involved in a M&A activity with a bankruptcy carrier because of special advantages such as rejecting unwanted leases/financial contracts. However, US Airways has positioned itself "to quickly raise additional capital", if necessary, according to a letter provided to employees this week.

Finally, US Airways has just created an ability to obtain a very large sum of money to go on top of its $3.3 billion in cash and it will be interesting to see what, if anything, unfolds.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

I think you have an idea what you 'Think' is going to happen, only you're not saying for some reason or other.

Question is, how smart are you or are you deeply connected to those that know?

All my stuff was baseless, based on BS, or suppostion, how about you?

Just what do you see happening and how soon?

 

[Bear96]

I believe that airline executives are discussing different M&A scenarios . . .

No sh!t. That's what airline execs are paid to do. Do you really think that is some sort of brilliant revelation only you came up with?

 

[whlinder]

Unlike Project Minnow, which I reported before the news media, where according to the news media reported former US Airways CEO Dave Siegel and United Executives wokred on a plan to "cquire United Airlines, the nation's No. 2 carrier. That option was code-named 'Project Minnow,' with US Airways as the small fish gobbling the bigger one."

Are you sure the real project minnow wasn't 'small fish' America West gobbling US Airways?

 

[USA320Pilot]

PBS Nightly Business News with Paul Kangas

One on One with Julius Maldutis, President of Aviation Dynamics - Thursday, October 05, 2006

PAUL KANGAS: The stocks of the major U.S. airlines have been gaining altitude in recent weeks as fuel prices drop. But will that upswing continue? Joining me now to answer that question, noted airline analyst Julius Maldutis, president of Aviation Dynamics. Julius, welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

JULIUS MALDUTIS, PRESIDENT, AVIATION DYNAMICS: Thank you.

KANGAS: Oil prices are down over 20 percent since their July peak and many carriers have managed to extract deep cuts in labor costs through union concessions. Does this mean the airlines are finally getting into decent financial shape?

MALDUTIS: Absolutely. After five years of horrific losses the airlines this year are poised to report the first profitable year. But I think we`re going to see a big merchant movement in the industry which will result in consolidation and a reduction in flights.

KANGAS: All right, now if you were to own, let's say, two or three major carrier stocks, what would you start with? What would you own?

MALDUTIS: I would own American, Continental and United Airlines.

KANGAS: Tell me about American. We'll put a chart up here and look at that stock. There it is. It's had a run-up and now is back down a little bit.

MALDUTIS: American Airlines I think is a very important key player. Don't lose sight of the fact that American a number of years ago made a bid to acquire Northwest Airlines at $57 a share. They always wanted to be a big player in the Pacific so American Airlines is one winner.

KANGAS: OK.

MALDUTIS: The second winner is Continental Airlines. Continental Airlines has been the object of United Airlines taking a hard look at it. Continental at one time proposed a merger with Delta Airlines and also Continental has a special relationship with Northwest.

KANGAS: And it has had a good run-up in the stock too. We're looking at the chart.

MALDUTIS: Absolutely. So Continental could be a player. And then the final one is United Airlines. Mr. Tilton has said that after coming out of bankruptcy, that United should acquire someone and I believe that the new U.S. Air could very well be acquiring United Airlines.

KANGAS: OK. That one -- that chart looks like it's really had a rough time of it recently. But you expect it to rebound, apparently.

MALDUTIS: Absolutely because Mr. Tillton has publicly stated that he's interested in doing a consolidation merger.

KANGAS: Yeah. And the earnings for all three look pretty good to you?

MALDUTIS: I think they are all poised in reducing flights going forward. And I think we're going to have a four or a five-year profit cycle to the industry. There will be other beneficiaries, of course from such a consolidation. But those are the three key players.

KANGAS: Now from what I can gather about 80 percent of all, all the airlines have 80 percent capacity on most of their flights. Will a slowdown in the economy affect that?

MALDUTIS: Well, they are slowing down the number of flights. They are going to be pulling capacity and specifically as a result of a merger, there will be less flights available. So airplanes are going to be full, continue to be full.

KANGAS: All right, fair enough. Incidentally, do you own any of those three stocks you mentioned?

MALDUTIS: No, I do not. The only one that I own is a little carrier called Midwest Express.

KANGAS: OK. We just have a few seconds left. Any final thoughts now. I guess we have flown out of time here, unfortunately. But anyway, it's great to see you again and thanks for taking the time to come with us.

MALDUTIS: Thank you, Paul.

KANGAS: My guest Julius Maldutis of Aviation Dynamics.

Click here for the report.

I would personally rather see US Airways acquire Northwest versus any other carrier. I believe the route/hub synergies betweem the two carrier's, Northwest currently in a "formal reorganization" where the combined firm could reject unwanted leases, and other companies within the industry not cutting their costs enough, are three strong reasons why I believe US Airways should acquire Northwest, if Doug Parker goes shopping.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[jbguppy]

PBS Nightly Business News with Paul Kangas

One on One with Julius Maldutis, President of Aviation Dynamics - Thursday, October 05, 2006

PAUL KANGAS: The stocks of the major U.S. airlines have been gaining altitude in recent weeks as fuel prices drop. But will that upswing continue? Joining me now to answer that question, noted airline analyst Julius Maldutis, president of Aviation Dynamics. Julius, welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

JULIUS MALDUTIS, PRESIDENT, AVIATION DYNAMICS: Thank you.

KANGAS: Oil prices are down over 20 percent since their July peak and many carriers have managed to extract deep cuts in labor costs through union concessions. Does this mean the airlines are finally getting into decent financial shape?

MALDUTIS: Absolutely. After five years of horrific losses the airlines this year are poised to report the first profitable year. But I think we`re going to see a big merchant movement in the industry which will result in consolidation and a reduction in flights.

KANGAS: All right, now if you were to own, let's say, two or three major carrier stocks, what would you start with? What would you own?

MALDUTIS: I would own American, Continental and United Airlines.

KANGAS: Tell me about American. We'll put a chart up here and look at that stock. There it is. It's had a run-up and now is back down a little bit.

MALDUTIS: American Airlines I think is a very important key player. Don't lose sight of the fact that American a number of years ago made a bid to acquire Northwest Airlines at $57 a share. They always wanted to be a big player in the Pacific so American Airlines is one winner.

KANGAS: OK.

MALDUTIS: The second winner is Continental Airlines. Continental Airlines has been the object of United Airlines taking a hard look at it. Continental at one time proposed a merger with Delta Airlines and also Continental has a special relationship with Northwest.

KANGAS: And it has had a good run-up in the stock too. We're looking at the chart.

MALDUTIS: Absolutely. So Continental could be a player. And then the final one is United Airlines. Mr. Tilton has said that after coming out of bankruptcy, that United should acquire someone and I believe that the new U.S. Air could very well be acquiring United Airlines.

KANGAS: OK. That one -- that chart looks like it's really had a rough time of it recently. But you expect it to rebound, apparently.

MALDUTIS: Absolutely because Mr. Tillton has publicly stated that he's interested in doing a consolidation merger.

KANGAS: Yeah. And the earnings for all three look pretty good to you?

MALDUTIS: I think they are all poised in reducing flights going forward. And I think we're going to have a four or a five-year profit cycle to the industry. There will be other beneficiaries, of course from such a consolidation. But those are the three key players.

KANGAS: Now from what I can gather about 80 percent of all, all the airlines have 80 percent capacity on most of their flights. Will a slowdown in the economy affect that?

MALDUTIS: Well, they are slowing down the number of flights. They are going to be pulling capacity and specifically as a result of a merger, there will be less flights available. So airplanes are going to be full, continue to be full.

KANGAS: All right, fair enough. Incidentally, do you own any of those three stocks you mentioned?

MALDUTIS: No, I do not. The only one that I own is a little carrier called Midwest Express.

KANGAS: OK. We just have a few seconds left. Any final thoughts now. I guess we have flown out of time here, unfortunately. But anyway, it's great to see you again and thanks for taking the time to come with us.

MALDUTIS: Thank you, Paul.

KANGAS: My guest Julius Maldutis of Aviation Dynamics.

Click here for the report.

I would personally rather see US Airways acquire Northwest versus any other carrier. I believe the route/hub synergies betweem the two carrier's, Northwest currently in a "formal reorganization" where the combined firm could reject unwanted leases, and other companies within the industry not cutting their costs enough, are three strong reasons why I believe US Airways should acquire Northwest, if Doug Parker goes shopping.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

In the very unlikely event this would occur, (I think much more likely UA would buy DAL) what a huge amount of chaos it would cause.

Different employee groups would be sniping forever, goodbye LCC 767-200 and UA 737-500's. Alpa merger policy would be a scary thing for the LCC guys here due to the huge disparity (career expectations) in widebody aircraft at UA nearly none at LCC. Fences would be longer than the new one going up on the border...

Financial performance in the 3rd quarter will show UA numbers improving across the board and LCC finally paying the cost of the merger.

UA has much more (5B and growing) money in the bank than LCC.

We don't even have to discuss what corporate name would survive do we?

IF I was at LCC I wouldn't want this to happen.

JBG

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

I DEFINITELY think Tilton will "do a deal".

With that said, except for an(UGLY) east coast domestic/Int. hub(PHL), LCC brings nothing else to the table.
Would'nt you think that with this "once in a life time" scenario, that UAL would want a "It flies everywhere" partner(think South America), like CO, or even DL, BEFORE..."Dinky" LCC.

?????????????????????

NH/BB's

 

[magsau]

I DEFINITELY think Tilton will "do a deal".

With that said, except for an(UGLY) east coast domestic/Int. hub(PHL), LCC brings nothing else to the table.
Would'nt you think that with this "once in a life time" scenario, that UAL would want a "It flies everywhere" partner(think South America), like CO, or even DL, BEFORE..."Dinky" LCC.

?????????????????????

NH/BB's

NH

You hit the nail on the head. UA wants the reach to Central and South American that either ATL or IAH can provide and the addition of either JFK or EWR from DAL or CAL. The only thing that UAL would want from LCC might be the CLT hub. I have heard Tilton say CLT is a couple of different speaking events. Perhaps LCC will sell UA LGA, BOS and CLT.

 

[barbeetantrums]

Perhaps LCC will sell UA LGA, BOS and CLT.

Yeah, sure it will. 🙄 Joking aside, perhaps LCC can sell PHL to UA at a cheap price.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

NH

You hit the nail on the head. UA wants the reach to Central and South American that either ATL or IAH can provide and the addition of either JFK or EWR from DAL or CAL. The only thing that UAL would want from LCC might be the CLT hub. I have heard Tilton say CLT is a couple of different speaking events. Perhaps LCC will sell UA LGA, BOS and CLT.

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

magsau,
I'm with you all the way, EXCEPT the CLT thing.
I'd ask Tilton, "why CLT, when you have a great uncongested IAD hub(not so far away) ???????

I use to think the smart "thinking" was LESS hubs, than more.(Perhaps I'm wrong now)

UAL DEFINITLY needs a northeast quardrant hub(think NYC area), coupled with IAD, you've got the east coast covered.

But I also think UAL has too many domestic hubs.(I'd make DEN a focus city)

I like the way AA has their hubs, DFW/MIA/ORD with JFK a focus city. Now as AA expands to Asia, They would need a west coast hub(like your SFO), which is why I constantly SALIVATE at the thought of AA buying Alaska Air.
One, for SEA as a west coast gateway, and two, for the HUGE monopoly for Alaska, which is a money maker !!

Mabey "SANTA" will deliver, for Xmas. 🙄

NH/BB's

 

[JungleClone]

Keep one thing in mind. No matter who merges with who, chaos will always result. Employees NEVER get over mergers. Seniority battles are taken to the grave. Integration issues are huge and costly, in terms of people, planes, IT systems, etc. The only ones who come out ahead on mergers are investors and executives. The overwhelming majority of those involved take it in the shorts!

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Keep one thing in mind. No matter who merges with who, chaos will always result. Employees NEVER get over mergers. Seniority battles are taken to the grave. Integration issues are huge and costly, in terms of people, planes, IT systems, etc. The only ones who come out ahead on mergers are investors and executives. The overwhelming majority of those involved take it in the shorts!

'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

"JC", your right......And such is a day in the life of an Airline employee.

It IS, what it IS.

NH/BB's

 

[JungleClone]

NHBB,

You're correct. That's why I recently left the industry and moved on to more secure pastures.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

NHBB,

You're correct. That's why I recently left the industry and moved on to more secure pastures.

''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

"clone",

Does that mean you bought/operate a DAIRY farm. 🙄


NH/BB's

 

[SoftLanding]

Me thinks nobody is buying nobody... 😉

If anything, the second tier airlines might be the ones...

With the carriers making $$$, lots of fare increases, oil down, and the Bush Adm. on the ropes, sure don't make sense to me to expect legacy mergers.

IF, a big if, that was to happen, expect the Bush Adm. to change the 25% ownership rule for foreign airlines...

Parker talks...and talks...Are we not in negotiations? That little carrot is a great weapon(Ahh, mergers, B747, B777...foreign lands 🙂 ...and especially given one of our own pilots, USA320Pilot, helping Parker keeping this alive...

Just don't see it, not the legacies, anyway...


SoftLanding