Time to pay for the WAR

The original tax was 10% on airline tickets. Then PFC's arrived which must be approved by the local airport authority, charged by the airlines then paid to the local airports. The legacy carriers after several years of seeing WN use more of the system and pay less said, 'wait a minute' our passengers are paying more for the same trip because we are paying more for usage of the air transportation system and that is not fair. So in fair play let’s make the fair fare for all. WN said, if you get this new system passed, we will fly more long hauls and will attack your routes. Before that day, WN mostly flew short haul, high frequency routes using the system more, placing more demands on a burdened air traffic system.

Well, the legacy carriers got the law changed to reduce the tax from 10% to 7.5%.

Then Sept 11th happened. Now you have to figure out a fair way to handle the cost of security. The common sense is the 'fee for usage.' Hence the $2.50 per passenger again collected by the airlines and paid to the government.

Maybe, what we should do is change the rule to $5.00 per time you pass though security, (that would hurt the people in MCI due to the poor design of the airport with no amenities after you enter the gate--HAHA); payable directly to security each time you chose to pass through security. The airlines would be out of collecting the tax for the government and the passenger would then see transparent fares. When you board a flight the airport would have to have a collector there where you as the passenger would then have to pay the PFC directly to the airport authority. Then you install a 'use' tax by facility that the airline must pay for the departure and arrival by time slot that will fund the FAA. Thereby, UA and AA would pay the majority of the cost of the air traffic system at ORD, while WN would pay the majority of the cost of the air traffic system at MDW. What could be fairer? You use, you pay.

The next complaint would be I will have to carry extra cash to pay all these fees. Well, when you travel outside of the US in some countries you must pay departure tax directly to the country prior to departure. Stop by the local ATM, pay the usage fee and get the cash. When you travel on a toll road you pay by number of axels, not by the freight you are carrying. Likewise, when you use the air transportation system, you should pay the cost associated with that trip. Arguing that WN’s security bill should be less than UA’s because they have less passengers is fair. But arguing that WN’s usage bill at MDW should be less because it is a smaller airport is garbage. After liftoff they fly into the same airspace used by all carriers. Therefore, the usage tax would be a better way to tax because WN chose not to fly to DFW, but instead put more airplanes in the sky to move passengers from MCI to DAL. (I know they no longer have to do the Texas Two Step) Two stops. Likewise, UA has put two planes in the sky to fly passengers form MCI to LAX so likewise they should have to pay for that usage.

Truth be told a Use Tax is much more effective and fair than any other tax. The Use Tax changed the way WN thought of flights, and likewise, a Use Tax may salvage what is left of the aviation industry. Travel by air is not funded by income tax, it is funded by sales tax, and it is and should be funded by a true form of USE TAX. YOU USE YOU PAY!
 
Then again, with SWA losing 50% more bags last year than UAL and having OVER TWICE the invol DB's (despite no codesharing, international, lower load factor, and more "directs"), maybe the folks in the suites were just going to cousin LuLu's shotgun wedding in KC and didn't want to have to make a quick trip to Wal Mart to avoid having to dress like Jethro at the wedding, or they figured they'd have them some nice threads when they attempt to eat the 36 ounce sirloin "if you eat it all it's free" meal at the Super 8 motel they'll have to get a room in when SWA doesn't have a seat for them (and given it's a "two step", SWA doesn't even have to get them a room) on the last flight out. Of course they're risking the drunk stripper just out of rehab (the one on "Airline") puking on their only set of church clothes....
Hmmm....must be a lot of shotgun weddings in KC because I've seen that same scene in OKC every time I've two stepped thru there. But you know more about the clientle of Southwest than I do, so I'll defer to your superior judgement.

that's funny, on the last airline I saw they wanted well over $100 EACH to let a lady and her two young boys get on an early OPEN SWA flight (DAY OF TRAVEL), while every time I've looked to get on an early UAL flight, if it's open, I'm on.
Guess I should have been clearer...I've booked Southwest when there was even a question of departing my home in the first place. I still would have had 100% of my travel dollar available for a future flight for myself....or (gasp) someone else. UAL would give me a $100 haircut off the top and allow those remaining funds to be used towards my personal travel...let someone else pay the full amount.

Wow, so they weren't the lowest paid for like 3 out of the last 30 years...impressive.. :rolleyes: . And just for reference, (and I hate to say this out loud), but do to stock, UAL's 737 Capts will on average make around $100K more this year than an equiv SWA guy. Granted it is a temprary blip, but I'm betting SWA's payrates are as well
Good bet. I'm betting that UAL will be back in bankruptcy court by 4th quarter 2007. I'm figuring if it's bad enough that SWA has to finally go to the employees for savings, UAL doesn't stand a chance.
 
Good bet. I'm betting that UAL will be back in bankruptcy court by 4th quarter 2007. I'm figuring if it's bad enough that SWA has to finally go to the employees for savings, UAL doesn't stand a chance.

you mean like the last time SWA went to it's employees? Just a hint, UAL was making money....

But oh yeah, SWA will just raise prices by $X because we all know that they are immune to economics and they can charge whatever they need to to make X% profit and the pax will still line up in droves. :rolleyes: I guess thats why they have the highest industry load factors as well as people standing in front of the terminal scalping SWA tickets due to the unmet demand... (not) :rolleyes:

Since you feel the UAL is in big trouble, I'd recommend you start selling naked Sept calls at $40 a share. Heck, do it at $30!! Then use the money to load up on Sept puts at $25 You'll make a fricken KILLING... Somehow, I'm thinking you're not the kind of guy to put your money where your keyboard is....
 
Good bet. I'm betting that UAL will be back in bankruptcy court by 4th quarter 2007. I'm figuring if it's bad enough that SWA has to finally go to the employees for savings, UAL doesn't stand a chance.

you mean like the last time SWA went to it's employees? Just a hint, UAL was making money....

But oh yeah, SWA will just raise prices by $X because we all know that they are immune to economics and they can charge whatever they need to to make X% profit and the pax will still line up in droves. :rolleyes: I guess thats why they have the highest industry load factors as well as people standing in front of the terminal scalping SWA tickets due to the unmet demand... (not) :rolleyes:

Since you feel the UAL is in big trouble, I'd recommend you start selling naked Sept calls at $40 a share. Heck, do it at $30!! Then use the money to load up on Sept puts at $25 You'll make a fricken KILLING... Somehow, I'm thinking you're not the kind of guy to put your money where your keyboard is....
Bussie, in case you haven't noticed, Southwest recently DID raise prices...a little bit in advance of when they "have" to. Even with lower than UAL fuel costs. Yet UAL still undercuts SWA pricing. Great strategy for that 4Q07 bankruptcy date. What kind of profit did UAL's higher systemwide load factor bring them last year? Load factor might be a great indicator of profits if they sell the tickets at something more than cost. They don't though.
 
you just don't "get it" do you?

First, we don't yet know what the net effect of SWA raising was.

Additionally, we don't know the effect at other airlines.

Let's break it down slowly without big words.

The hedges WILL run out.
SWA CAN'T hedge any more fuel at $30 a barrel
SWA is likely NOT currently hedging any more fuel
SWA has had close to 10% of it's employees on year 1 pay
Until recently, the majors most junior pilot was on 8th year pay.
Now that some of the majors are recalling, wage costs will GO DOWN
If SWA slows growth at all, wage costs will go up.
SWA is having to try to make money in places they failed in the past against much more AGGRESIVE comp.

For the record, UAL had higher operating margins in Q3 and Q4 when adjusted for the hedges.


Now, lets put it together, again, I'll attempt to do it slowly.
If SWA "raises fares" one of two outcomes will occur
1. The other airlines give them the finger and keep prices low, SWA (a fare "spoiler" in recent years) gets B-slapped (refer to NWA for guidance on how that works out).
2. The other airlines match the increases, and as the hedges expire, enjoy continued HIGHER margins than SWA. When SWA tries to enter new markets, the healther legacy B-slaps them. SWA forced to slow/stop growth, wage costs GO UP.

Additionally, SWA has had a spat of "bad press". If the "luster" continues to tarnish, any previous yield advantage evaporates. Add to that efforts to have ALL airlines pay their "FARE" share for security and ATC, and you have the potential for disaster. And just for kicks, that ever decreasing population of SWA employees with "in the money" options may make a run on them, directly hitting the balance sheet under new accounting rules, and rubbing more luster of the stock, and therefore the company.
 
Bussie...You are right...the hedges will run out. When they do, Southwest most likely won't charge a fare that include $30 oil. UAL on the other hand is basing their recovery on an "average" of $50 oil...we are well north of that, and unless the economists on staff at UAL are VERY astute, for oil to "average" $50 a barrel, it means that at some point down the road, it's going to have to actually cost in the neighborhood of $30. But UAL is currently pricing as though oil is at $29 a barrel, because they are selling tickets for less money than Southwest. So...you keep the "market share" with the lower than cost tickets and Southwest will just keep the profit share with a little less load factor.

Quick qestion though....given that NWA,and DAL are still in bankruptcy, and UAL has just taken it's first baby steps in 3 years outside of bankruptcy, and will need every dollar it can get...how long can they afford to "b-slap" Southwest? How long can they afford to b-slap anybody? 4q07? Odd as it sounds, I don't think AA is stupid enough to try to "b-slap" Southwest at the cost of taking themselves to bankruptcy. IMHO, outside SWA, I think AA has some of the most astute management of all the "legacy" airlines.
 
Just so you understand, SWA has LOWER margins than UAL at $50, $60, $70, $80. When UAL says "$50" a barrel, they assume that the competition will be PRICING it's tickets at $50 a Barrel. One would think that SWA will price it's tickets to match costs. Am I to understand that is no longer the plan? Heck, if anything SWA gets hit by high fuel MORE than UAL due to the relatively inefficent fleet and it's purported compettion with the auto. Kind of hard to drive to Europe...
 
Just so you understand, SWA has LOWER margins than UAL at $50, $60, $70, $80. When UAL says "$50" a barrel, they assume that the competition will be PRICING it's tickets at $50 a Barrel. One would think that SWA will price it's tickets to match costs. Am I to understand that is no longer the plan? Heck, if anything SWA gets hit by high fuel MORE than UAL due to the relatively inefficent fleet and it's purported compettion with the auto. Kind of hard to drive to Europe...
Hmmmm....So lemme get this straight....Southwest gets oil for $30 a barrel and prices accordingly. United gets oil for $70 and prices as though it were $29 given that they are undercutting SWA prices. SWA is hedged until 2009. 4q07. Where is it written that an airline must fly to Europe to be an airline? Sometimes it's fine being a lil ol domestic airline. That they don't fly to Europe is totally irrelevant to the 75 million domestic passengers that they carry.

I also had an afterthought:
For the record, UAL had higher operating margins in Q3 and Q4 when adjusted for the hedges.

That last part might as well be "1+1=3". Math is great...given enough circumstances, you can pretty much make numbers look as good or as bad as you like. But in the business world, 1+1 doesn't equal 3, and margins "adjusted for hedges" don't amount to squat.
 
I have no sympathy for WN passengers forced to pay another $10. There are very few people who will refuse to travel because of the $10. I have even less sympathy for people who hold their children on their laps rather than buy a ticket, but that's another story.

WN has bigger challenges in the short-term than merely running out of access to cheap fuel. They need to make the competitive moves that will keep them ahead financially for at least the next 5-10 years now while the rest of the industry is shaking off the 9/11 tranquilizer. The problem is, they are approaching what municipal planners would call "build-out". The low hanging fruit is pretty much been harvested, they are trying for something quasi-Hawiian with ATA, (but it's hard to tell exactly what) and they refuse to entertain international because of the huge compromise to their myopic (yet profitable) business plan. They have the cash, but their feet are in the clay of their own making. In short, they're running out of places to fly a 737.

And as their competition conditions the flying public to view even so-called legacy carriers (high-value carriers) as being affordable, WN loses it's "automatically cheapest" cache they have relied upon. These are the things that keep Mr. Kelly awake at night.
 
And as their competition conditions the flying public to view even so-called legacy carriers (high-value carriers) as being affordable, WN loses it's "automatically cheapest" cache they have relied upon. These are the things that keep Mr. Kelly awake at night.
Can't disagree that the flying public vies "high value carriers", who won't even serve drinks on a one hour flight because of the "short flying time" as being affordable. But like market share, the flying public's view doesn't necessarily generate profit. I suppose should market conditions dictate rough flying ahead for Southwest, they can always take on a mountain of debt while their credit is good to see them thru the tougher times, then follow the well worn path into bankruptcy court to regain that "competitive edge".
 

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