The Last Flight?

[Ukridge]

Cosmo - We hope that your schedule will soon allow you to post your thoughts. Although that I see others differ with you from time to time, your posts are extraordinarily free of emotion and speak to specifics - a rarely found trait in disputation these days.

To all: As you noticed I did not post a link to the FT article from which I so freely drew my initial post. We have an old-fashioned print copy in the office and I made the assumption that it also appeared in the electronic version as well. Well, the FT has a free-registration and a subscribe online version, neither of which I make use of. On the free registration site, I noticed there were various articles (including one now about a pilot labour agreement), but not the article which I referenced. I would be pretty sure that it is on the subscribe section (to which I am not privy). My second assumption was that if this article was already in the FT, that it must have already made the rounds of the US business press.
My apologies for making a post without submitting the linked article and if my gloomy response to said article was inappropriate. I do not know the inner workings of labour-company negotiations, nor the "mercenary" journalism that very well may be an undercurrent to the Star/Oneworld, Heathrow/US access issues. My humble defense is only that I was struck by the "apparent" company statements as to the seriousness of the situation and the attitude of "burning cash until there is no more."
Back to my most humble status as an observer.
Cheers

 

[Borescope]

The news of our death has been greatly exaggerated.........

[post="229365"][/post]​

Read what the company posted to the SEC. You might be suprised.

 

[ualdriver]

I did, along with their other filings.. I stand by that statement!

 

[WorldTraveler]

Cosmo,
I guess I would think that UA's use of grim statistics to concessions is just as good a strategy as what DL used if there actually were a turnaround after doing it the first time. Just like so many UA employees, I have to be skeptical when they come back for round 2 and I will be just as skeptical if AA or DL comes back for round 2.

I almost hate getting started w/ statistics since we all know they can be presented any number of different ways but have a look at DOT's financial performance statistics (which of course are compiled from previously released information) at:
http://www.bts.gov/press_releases/2004/bts.../bts035_04.html

While UAL has been touting their year over year improvements in unit revenue performance, they are dead last in absolute RASM among the legacy carriers and is surpassed even by Frontier (I so hate to say this while Fish is listening). UAL's costs are considerably higher than Frontier's and despite having pretty high loads for legacy carriers (not contained in this report), UA still managed to trail NW and DL in absolute RASM.

Even with the shift in capacity from domestic to int'l flying, UA is predominantly a domestic airline, as is every other US legacy carrier. UA still has a domestic revenue problem and if any of the US legacies can't make money on domestic routes, they cannot be profitable long-term. Independence's incursion into transcon flying and Southwest's buildup at Midway are sure to further erode UA's revenues in key markets. DL, on the other hand, has little additional LCC incursion risks in its key markets and is already aggressively fighting LCCs in its key markets.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Keep in mind, Cosmo, that Delta as a solvent airline doesn't have to file a public plan of reorganization. They may very well demonstrate that revenues have and will decrease but they largely did not make that the centerpiece of its campaign to gain concessions from its pilots and some of its creditors. The strategy DL used to wring concessions was to run down the cash supply, in some cases by prepaying obligations, in order to force the pilots to the reality that bankruptcy was imminent if they didn't help the company - and the example of UA and US were enough to scare DL pilots to offer very big givebacks in order to keep them from ending up like UA and US. By far the biggest fear of DL pilots was that they would lose their pensions.

 

[mrfish3726]

WorldTraveler,

No comments on how F9 is doing against UniTED! We here at F9 see our performance everyday and don't worry one bit what UniTED is doing. The SEC filing is disturbing, I'd be getting the hell out of there as fast I could if I was still at UAL HELL. But then again, I got the hell out of there as soon as they filed BK and started the lay offs so that I could be the first out there to still find a GOOD JOB.

As for UniTED going after round 2, as at USAIR, you can bet that before this summer they will be after ROUND 3! Look at USAIR now saying that they need 1B in concessions and plan to go after the pilot group AGAIN for MORE ! I see the same thing happening at UniTED before they EVER MAKE IT OUT OF BK!!! IF THEY MAKE IT OUT OF BK, 50-50 there right now and gets worse everyday they delay their exit.

 

[UAL_TECH]

WorldTraveler,

No comments on how F9 is doing against UniTED! We here at F9 see our performance everyday and don't worry one bit what UniTED is doing. The SEC filing is disturbing, I'd be getting the hell out of there as fast I could if I was still at UAL HELL. But then again, I got the hell out of there as soon as they filed BK and started the lay offs so that I could be the first out there to still find a GOOD JOB.

As for UniTED going after round 2, as at USAIR, you can bet that before this summer they will be after ROUND 3! Look at USAIR now saying that they need 1B in concessions and plan to go after the pilot group AGAIN for MORE ! I see the same thing happening at UniTED before they EVER MAKE IT OUT OF BK!!! IF THEY MAKE IT OUT OF BK, 50-50 there right now and gets worse everyday they delay their exit.

[post="229725"][/post]​

Testing the waters….

UAL is giving untenable proposals to all groups to see who will bend over the farthest and fastest. As ALPA is the lead capitulator in this contemptuous affair, I believe they are 101 Million short of saving their cash cow. Of course they will maintain a ‘scab list’ but will not entertain adding another 6000 pilots to their ‘own list’ of lists as their names should be included also.

In the ‘race to the bottom’ pilots are coming in first!!!

And Mr. Fish, we are in total agreement that this 'January' capitulation is simply a preclude to the 'June' capitulation.

JMHO&PO,
B) UT

 

[casual rat]

WorldTraveler,

No comments on how F9 is doing against UniTED! We here at F9 see our performance everyday and don't worry one bit what UniTED is doing. The SEC filing is disturbing, I'd be getting the hell out of there as fast I could if I was still at UAL HELL. But then again, I got the hell out of there as soon as they filed BK and started the lay offs so that I could be the first out there to still find a GOOD JOB.

As for UniTED going after round 2, as at USAIR, you can bet that before this summer they will be after ROUND 3! Look at USAIR now saying that they need 1B in concessions and plan to go after the pilot group AGAIN for MORE ! I see the same thing happening at UniTED before they EVER MAKE IT OUT OF BK!!! IF THEY MAKE IT OUT OF BK, 50-50 there right now and gets worse everyday they delay their exit.

[post="229725"][/post]​

Obviously you worry, otherwise you wouldn't post here...maggot!