The Big Six And Wal-mart

[Dea Certe]

Saw this on the web. Worth reading, IMO

http://www.zyworld.com/brancatelli/bf2004/...branc012904.htm

Dea

 

[DCD]

Interesting read Dea. When talking with a friend of mine, A Strawbridges store manager, I've often used the parrallels between old line retail and their problems and the problems of the legacy carriers.

 

[Colby]

Thanks Dea...that was interesting.

Did you fwd it to Dave ???????

 

[Winglet]

This Joe guy is a nitwit. Go back and read his earlier articles. He complains about fares being higher than the SWA, then in this article complains that the major airlines are taking out first class seats.

What this nitwit wants is a first class seat at SWA prices. It sound to me like this boob is just telling people what they want to hear, regardless of facts. There's a lot of that going around in this country now, and it's going to implode on us soon.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Winglet,

Ok, I'll bite...

For a significant percentage of our pax (I would say majority, but don't have numbers to back it up) who aren't sitting in FC, aren't going to an international destination, and aren't making an interline connection, what DO we offer that SW or JB don't?

Sometimes even a nitwit can say something insightful.

Jim

 

[TomBascom]

And what, exactly, is the problem with offering First Class seats at SWA prices?

 

[Colby]

And what, exactly, is the problem with offering First Class seats at SWA prices?

The poor Flight Attendant would run out of LIQUER!!!

More than once I actually had to cut people off and then when I looked at my manifest I saw that they were UPGRADES!!!

The Business Traveler that sits in First Class certainly doesn't need a bunch of YA HOOS sitting up there with their WalMart Shirts and Kmart Jeans !!!!!

 

[Flying Titan]

Whether you consider this guy a "nitwit" or not, address the points made in the article.

The biggest problem that the legacy carriers have is that they don't offer a reason for many travelers to pay more. Sure, as I've stated before, I stick with one because I am a FF who can enjoy some of the benefits of the status I've obtained -- but what reason does the person who flies 3-4 times a year have to fly any of the legacy carriers? Can the majors survive just on FFs like me or do they need that 2x,3x,4x/year passenger?

The in-flight experience for the average coach passenger is probably better on JetBlue than on any of the majors - full-sized planes (on every flight), tv, leather seats, better seat pitch, etc. There are two choices in this game - offer a better product/service that people will see as worth paying a bit more for a ticket (the upscale department store, like Nordstrom) - or - offer a cheaper ticket (Wal-Mart).

He's really not too far off the mark.

 

[JS]

Joe B. is an idiot. He writes that 49% of the flights are on regional equipment, and therefore you have a one-in-two shot of getting a flight with First Class.

49% of the FLIGHTS is less than 49% of the SEATS, you moron! People buy a SEAT, not the whole flight!

Can we say "Duh"?

 

[Flying Titan]

Joe B. is an idiot. He writes that 49% of the flights are on regional equipment, and therefore you have a one-in-two shot of getting a flight with First Class.

49% of the FLIGHTS is less than 49% of the SEATS, you moron! People buy a SEAT, not the whole flight!

Can we say "Duh"?

If you're going after what the odds are of landing on a flight w/ no first class section, then you're both wrong. It's destinations. If I'm flying to Charlottesville, VA (for example) - my odds of getting a first class seat are ZERO. It doesn't matter how many seats or how many flights they're pushing back and forth - they're all on RJs or turboprops. Some medium and larger markets are seeing a bigger influx of these aircraft, as well. If I fly ATL-BUF on Delta, my odds of getting a first class seat are again - ZERO.

For cities served by both mainline and "express" aircraft, then you need to look for the ratio of mainline flights vs. express flights. If I'm looking for a first class seat, I don't care how many seats the plane holds - I'm only looking for one. If a given market has one mainline flight a day and four express flights a day, then my odds of ending up in a first class seat are only 20-percent since I have a 1 in 5 chance of being on a plane that actually has such a seat. Again, as far as I'm concerned each plane only has one seat that matters - mine.

Personally, I'm amazed at some of the routes that now have RJs instead of full-sized jets. Recently, I was looking at an Atlanta-Denver flight and was stunned when I saw an RJ in the listing. Rest assured that I will not be purchasing a ticket on that flight anytime soon.

 

[JS]

Originally posted by Flying Titan:

If you're going after what the odds are of landing on a flight w/ no first class section, then you're both wrong. It's destinations. If I'm flying to Charlottesville, VA (for example) - my odds of getting a first class seat are ZERO. It doesn't matter how many seats or how many flights they're pushing back and forth - they're all on RJs or turboprops. Some medium and larger markets are seeing a bigger influx of these aircraft, as well. If I fly ATL-BUF on Delta, my odds of getting a first class seat are again - ZERO.

I realize that. "Odds", as in, average. On average, the probability of booking a flight that has a first class section is more than zero but less than Joe B.'s 49%.

Personally, I'm amazed at some of the routes that now have RJs instead of full-sized jets. Recently, I was looking at an Atlanta-Denver flight and was stunned when I saw an RJ in the listing. Rest assured that I will not be purchasing a ticket on that flight anytime soon.

What flight is that? I don't see any regional jets in any airline's schedule flying ATL-DEN.

 

[dash8ter]

What flight is that? I don't see any regional jets in any airline's schedule flying ATL-DEN.

I believe that Mike Boyd from the Boyd Group stated last week that UA has a CRJ for one of the DEN-ATL-DEN runs. I haven't checked the schedules yet.

 

[TomBascom]

Joe B. is an idiot. He writes that 49% of the flights are on regional equipment, and therefore you have a one-in-two shot of getting a flight with First Class.

49% of the FLIGHTS is less than 49% of the SEATS, you moron! People buy a SEAT, not the whole flight!

Can we say "Duh"?

As errors with statistics go that one is fairly minor.

Aside from quibbling about the exact odds his point is interesting and on-target rather than being idiotic.

 

[Flying Titan]

I believe that Mike Boyd from the Boyd Group stated last week that UA has a CRJ for one of the DEN-ATL-DEN runs. I haven't checked the schedules yet.

That's correct. I was looking at ATL-LAS and one option was a route through DEN. I couldn't believe that there was a CRJ-700 listed on that route. Is there anyone here above 4' 10" who would consider that a comfortable flight for that distance?

 

[Flying Titan]

Originally posted by Flying Titan:

If you're going after what the odds are of landing on a flight w/ no first class section, then you're both wrong. It's destinations. If I'm flying to Charlottesville, VA (for example) - my odds of getting a first class seat are ZERO. It doesn't matter how many seats or how many flights they're pushing back and forth - they're all on RJs or turboprops. Some medium and larger markets are seeing a bigger influx of these aircraft, as well. If I fly ATL-BUF on Delta, my odds of getting a first class seat are again - ZERO.

I realize that. "Odds", as in, average. On average, the probability of booking a flight that has a first class section is more than zero but less than Joe B.'s 49%.

JS -
My point isn't the exact number. It's that the method to arrive at that number is not seats. It's flights on some routes and a combination of flights/frequencies on other routes which are then put together in a weighted average. Using this method, the number will come out much closer to the 49% that Brancatelli cited than it would if you simply counted all available seats being flown by the big six and their RJ partners and compared the coach number to the F/C number.

For me, this has been an issue for a while. I fly to a number of "secondary" cities. Increasingly, it is a challenge to find a mainline aircraft to any of these destinations and now the RJ phenomenon is creeping onto longer routes between major cities such as ATL-DEN. On a number of routes, this represents a clearly inferior product to what the LCCs offer. The "idiot" is on point on this issue.