Questionable Article

[4lowed]

Tumbleweed,

You stated:

Here we go again. Wet dreams about some fantasy merger where U employees are finally brought out of their 15 year funk and handed over the worlds premier route system at the expense of the employees at UAL.


Explain to me again abaout how UAL was handed the worlds premier route system at the expense of the employees. I of course am referring to the employees of Pan Am. Remember your roots.

4lowed

 

[usjacket]

DR. EVIL cant run one airline much less two! God help United!

 

[Light Years]

Thank you 4lowed, how very true.

UAL (via a certain Stephen Wolf) got those routes from Pan Am, who along with TWA got them from the govt in the regulation days. Some people seem to think they did such a good job at work they got LHR access. Bad employees end up with two hubs in PA. 😀

 

[jimntx]

It all sounds to me like the alleged Delta/Continental merger of a few years ago. I have a flight attendant friend at each of the airlines. The Delta f/a could talk for hours about how the merger was really a sale with Delta being the surviving company--"only possible way for it to work." The Continental flight attendant could talk for hours on same subject except with oppositie results--the "merger" was really a purchase of Delta by Continental with Continental being the surviving airline. Oh, and each supposedly had their information on good authority from someone in management.

In the end, turned out to be nothing more than a marketing alliance.

 

[USA320Pilot]

I have never spoken to Mike Boyd or Ray Neidl, but their comments echo what is being discussed by other analysts, consultants, and privately between the two companies

Here's another interesting article on the subject:

See Story

Provided US Airways can lower its unit costs to a point that RASM exceeds CASM and United can prove it can emerge from bankruptcy (which is still uncertain), then there is continued reason to believe the business partners will have some sort of a corporate combination.

Siegel has said "everything is on the table" and I believe that includes the UCT, an AF-KLM type of deal, and/or a merger. Yesterday at a press conference in Pittsburgh US Airways senior vice president of corporate affairs Chris Chiames said, "We have to continue to take costs out of the business in everything we do."

That is true for both US Airways and United, who after the Delta concession talks are complete, will have the highest unit costs in the industry even after both companies had an in-court restructuring . Therefore, I believe the leading candidate for the corporate combination could be an AF-KLM type of deal because Bronner has let it be known both privately and publicly his willingness to finance such a deal as a means to bring United out of bankruptcy-- as the Chicago-based company's equity investor/exit financier.

Interestingly, US Airways senior management would like to see US Airways be the surviving business entity, the US Airways paint scheme/logo remain, but the name of the combined business entity United Airlines (for world-wide market identity).

Regards,

Chip

 

[Fly]

Chip....when you repeat the same mantra over and over...do you believe it? Of course senior US management wants to see US as the surviving business entity. Duhhhhh! Boy, you sure are a smart one.

then there is continued reason to believe the business partners will have some sort of a corporate combination.

They Do!!! It's called Star Alliance

Go take care of your kid and stop trying to turn positive articles into the "World Of UCT" according to Chip.

 

[ClueByFour]

I have never spoken to Mike Boyd or Ray Neidl, but their comments echo what is being discussed by other analysts, consultants, and privately between the two companies

How do you know what is being discussed privately between the two companies?

 

[767jetz]

A few quotes from that article that I find interesting... (and right on the mark):

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"Instead of writing its epitaph under Chapter 7 liquidation proceedings, United Airlines' parent is alive and kicking..."
____________________________

"UAL says - and several analysts agree - that it is on course to meet its goal of emerging from Chapter 11 by mid-2004."
____________________________

"Even the Iraq war and Asia's SARS outbreak failed to stop UAL from meeting the financial targets required by the banks that lent money..."
____________________________

" "...they're doing much better than I expected," said Douglas Baird, who teaches bankruptcy law at the University of Chicago. "I said early on that they had to hit all the marks (to avoid liquidation), and they have hit all the marks." "
____________________________

"The revenue for each seat flown a mile grew 12 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier."
____________________________

"The carrier also turned its first quarterly operating profit in three years."
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"UAL's unit costs are expected to fall further through its negotiations with firms that provided complex financing for about a third of its fleet of more than 500 jets."
____________________________

"Overall, he said, the carrier "still has a ways to go, but they are still here. I have been in this business a long time, and one thing you learn is that airlines have enormous capacity to endure.""
____________________________

Overall, definitely more positive than negative points. Nothing in there that points to any type of merger talks.

The worst thing I saw was some talk about equity investors, which my sources tell me UA wants to avoid at all cost. And the posibility of cancelling one or more pensions, which we all know is a possibility and will play itself out in the coming months.

Again, UA is getting it's house in order, it's obstacles are manageable, pension issues will be resolved or terminated, and UA will emerge without the need to divest itself of assets or participate in any type of corporate transaction.

IMO UA will emerge as planned (without any "help" from US), and any future combination between UA and US will depend on whether or not US can stabilize it's business or not. Time will tell.

767jetz

 

[USA320Pilot]

767jetz & Fly:

You are dead wrong.

By the way, we are taking care of our son and he is being taken to Chidren's Hospital in Pittsburgh. Fly, thanks for your concern or should I say your smart aleck comment, but I should not expect anything else from a person like you.

Regards,

Chip

 

[USA320Pilot]

Clue:

Clue asked: "How do you know what is being discussed privately between the two companies?"

Chip answers: Sources close to the company and the ngotiations have told me so.

Regards,

Chip

 

[cavalier]

Clue:

Clue asked: "How do you know what is being discussed privately between the two companies?"

Chip answers: Sources close to the company and the ngotiations have told me so.

Regards,

Chip

Seriously Chip: If you indeed know this stuff as FACT and not fiction, then sir, why don't you inform the concerned parties, arming them with this knowledge so they can make informed and intelligent decisions for the benefit of all concerned? Coming on here and saying what MUST be done by the people in charge of ACAA if in fact you know something they don't, then not telling them makes zero sense. I assure you they don't read these boards then make their decisions based on angry and frustrated employee rants. Personally, if I had information that I KNOW would affect so many lives, well I would be shouting from the hills tops for all to hear and not restrict my knowledge to these boards where angry employees gather.

PS: Hope your son is ok!

 

[PITbull]

Chip,

If sources close to the company tell you these things, should they be on a public message board? Doesn't the information you share have a possibility to effect the stock value?

I would think that if your stories have any validity, management would be coming down on you hard.

How come that just isn't happening?

 

[767jetz]

767jetz & Fly:

You are dead wrong.

Uhhhhhh...

No Chip, YOU are dead wrong.

Now, would you like to take a poll on this board and see who believes you and who believes me? Or maybe a poll on credibility?

.................. I didn't think so. :down:

 

[ClueByFour]

Clue asked: "How do you know what is being discussed privately between the two companies?"

Chip answers: Sources close to the company and the ngotiations have told me so.

Name them (the sources).

Since you probably won't, follow this for a second: someone involved in the process, presumably management, is going to leak news of a corporate transaction that could result in crazy amounts of union unrest to a line pilot who has run for LEC office in U ALPA, who has a penchant for writing letters to editors of major newspapers in U hub communities and postulating left and write on public (here) and union (alpa) internet message boards. Do I have that right?

I (for one) don't find it likely under most circumstances. The one circumstance in which I do find it plausible is if someone in the upper echelons of the current management wants to spread some FUD so that the employee groups are all looking the other way when the "next other shoe" drops.

I sat next to Neal Cohen a few weeks ago on a flight to DCA--can I now claim him as an inside source? Better yet, I've got news of a UCT--after all, my firm has an "operational relationship" with U (you buy our products--I'm sure AOG has seen a few). Maybe, like Norfolk Southern, we want to play airline........

UCT at 11.

 

[Busdrvr]

Chip,
best of luck to you concerning your situation with your son. I'm sure the thoughts and prayers of all your regular board 'jousters' are with you at this VERY trying time. I also understand the role this board can play in helping you get your mind of things you really would prefer to not have to deal with or even think about. I Don't think Fly's remarks were meant to be malicious in any way.


Now lets consider a few points.
You state that UAL's costs will be the second highest AFTER they exit BK. That is simply not true. They will be the lowest in the class (hub and spokers). The management at UAL have REPEATEDLY stated that in news releases and SEC filings. Now lets consider the ramifications of false information from the two completely opposite views
Chip wrong and Glenn's right: Chip loses credibility on the US Aviation board...
Chips right and Glenn's wrong: Glenn gives up his already opulant lifestyle before UAL, for a life of fines and jail time due to SEC violations. LEGALLY Glenn CAN NOT lie. But you'll see a little more in the 4th Q filing as ASM costs go down at UAL (with the possible exception of fuel costs).

For UAL to sell all or part of it's operation to U, the particular asset must be worth MORE to U than to UAL. Lets consider a few situations

UAL Terminates pensions, employees "shut up and color". UAL's costs (or at least the cash flow) gets even BETTER, likely leading to a stampede of lenders who DON'T expect an equity share.

UAL terminates pension, employees strike. You saying you'd want to then buy the struck routes and fly them? hmmm.....

UAL gets minor, or no pension relief, needs money from loan shark. the implication here would be that UAL must go on with the pensions in place. What happens if U buys? Does big Dave keep the list seperate, providing pension funding for UAL pilots but not U's? Does he then terminate UAL's pilots pensions? But if he made pension termination a condition for investment, why would UAL then need him? (see example above..) Same with fragmentation. Do pilots comming over to U gets pensions terminated? Would UAL ALPA then say "fine those guys now belong to a wholly owned subsid of UAL that doesn't have a pension" before letting the BOD sell?

UAL gets pension relief. No longer needs loan shark.

UAL can't come to an agreement with ORD on Gates. U, who OUT OF BK STILL CAN'T SETTLE WITH PIT, is somehow going to come in and make it all better? Wonder what implied interest ORD will want on that lease deal?

There just doesn't appear to be a situation that I can think of that even remotely puts U in a position to own all or ANY part of UAL. can you think of one? please post it if you can.