You’re the one chasing me around these boards. It’s not the other way around. And you have all those degrees but you’re still doing a blue collar job. Highly skilled I’m sure but you don’t have the capital that Mr Wonderful or Lee has. You don’t. That’s a fact.
Chasing you around? Dude. I don't know if you have noticed but there are like 6 post a day here.....on the entire site.
But if I see anyone saying things that are right, i tend to comment on it. I didn't know ONLY American employees can speak to you. Can you show me that in the rules?
and you like to make some drastic assumptions about me.
You’re also the one who said you didn’t want to go through another Bankruptcy. You have ZERO control over that. Completely and totally beyond your control or that education. I’m cool with it if they do. I’m absolutely not shivering in fear.
So few things. No I don't have ZERO control over that. I have very. very. very. very. little control, correct but I can do things that help the company without hurting myself or others. Cent here, cent there add up.
but I don't wanna do another bankruptcy doesn't = "shivering in fear"
Are you saying you want to go through another bankruptcy and/or don't care if you do?
And yes I love my Union. So what is that to you? I know many of those guys and I like and respect them. I also think they like and respect me. I could care less if you don’t like or want a Union. I’m not coming to the Delta threads or Facebook pages much anymore. Unfortunately that’s nothing but an unending Hamster Wheel. I got too dizzy for the ride.
So two things.
What's it to me? nothing unless you are belittling others while posting things that are wrong and or you don't know what you are talking about.
second thing, what Delta threads?
BTW you wished for the old guys to come back. They won’t be coming back because it’s likely quite a few of them have died. Many were quite a bit older than me the first time I came here so it just stands to reason many have passed on.
Or some people have ran them off with constant TWU/American/Delta ass kissing.
And BTW I’m also not obsessed with Politics but you’ve made some sort of assumptions there too. FYI not all Union supporters are Liberals or automatically vote for someone with a D or an R on their hat. You can go up to the Water Cooler if you want to bat all that crap around though. Not my interest.
I haven't made any assumptions. Haven't said you are believing what he has had to say about it or not. I do find it ironic you are posting quotes from a fed chair on the matter when its fairly well known the Fed has just become yet another partisan arm of the government. (no matter what part is in control)
Although the "two-quarter" definition is handy for analysts, journalists and the general public, it is not how economists think about business cycles.
That's partly because GDP is a broad measure that can be influenced by factors like government spending or international trade. And the first read on it from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis is often revised quite substantially, and should - as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted on Wednesday - be taken with a grain of salt.
except it is. As I say below, I'm not looking at it in a vacuum. I posted several other signs pointing to it as well.
ARE RECESSIONS ALWAYS TWO STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF FALLING GDP?
Usually, but not always.
For example, GDP in 2001, after revisions, fell in the first three months of the year, rebounded in the next three months and declined again in the fall.
So I'm confused and maybe I a misunderstanding. Are you (and/or your source) saying we didn't go into a rescission in the second half of 2001?
because unless you are going to call it a depression, which without WAR! ALL THE WAR! would have probably be the case, we sure as **** were in a rescission in the second half of 2001. Its was trending that way for all of 2000/early 2001 but went into it hardcore at around 11am or so on 9/11.
either way, I'm not
just looking at GDP. I am looking at several other things I said in my first post. Energy prices and housing prices are softening because someone is being nice.
I suspect it's just a matter of time before job losses start in earnest. Wages aren't keeping up with inflation, which inevitably leads to less discretionary spending. That has a ripple effect on airlines, hotels, and cruise lines. There's a lot of pent up demand from people who couldn't vacation like they did in 2019, but I don't see that continuing into 2023.
I just saw where one of the largest aluminum plants in the country (20% of present capacity) is shutting down for at least a year because of energy prices. They won't be the only manufacturer to pull back -- certainly companies that needed that aluminum will see cutbacks.
I've seen two local restaurants call it quits over their food price increases and staffing headaches. I've seen a couple franchises close down as well, presumably for similar reasons.
Already starting to see some of that. Other discretionary spending is starting to slow. Airlines are still living the dream right this second because of pent up demand. "I'll pass on buying this thing I don't need on amazon but I'm doing to Disney dammit I haven't been out of the house for 3 years" That will come to a huge stop come winter and id bet you see a huge YOY drop in leisure/VFR next summer. The big guys are just hedging their bets on corporate travel to rebound.
and the issue for airlines is a they are going to be getting hit from both sides. As you said, most people took a big pay cut this year due to inflation. Airline employees are wanting more money, and airlines are struggling to hire. Something has to change on that end as well.
The good thing is "well we will just outsource it" isn't really going to work cause venders and regionals sure as **** can't hire people and keep them.
My hope is airlines are going to be forced to bring more work in-house and the industry unions are smart enough to take advantage and get that work in writing.
The jobs market is way too hot as it is. The turnover we have at AA is thru the roof when it comes to jobs like FA’s, CSA’s and Ramp. They’ve raised the starting pay in many cities but absolutely not enough to offset the flow. Wages haven’t kept up but they have increased. But that also obviously causes a lot of the inflation. The Fed raising rates will eventually solve some of the problems but the question is will it be a hard or soft landing?
I agree with you that demand for air travel will soften some next year. It has to. People obviously are still flush with cash that they want to blow and thankfully for my industry they want to blow it on flying right now.
Energy prices have been falling under the pressure of inflation. WTI has even gotten close to $85BP before now being back up to $90. Some Gas stations here in S Florida have Gas down to $3.35. The economy should be able to handle prices in that range. Housing is also starting to move down but food prices are still through the roof. (Edit: Two Gas Stations at $3.19 per GasBuddy)
I just had a meal in a restaurant last night and it used to cost $13.95 before the pandemic. Now it cost $17.95 for the same meal. Luckily I can afford the price rises but the question is how long do I want to?
I think you might be looking a little too airline specific on the job market part. Airlines (and vendors) can't hire fast enough for sure, but we are already starting to see hiring slow and in some industries layoffs happen.
And if they really want to drastically slow inflation, the fed has to rase the rates to the point that it will cause a hard landing. I don't think they will because as I have said, it has become just another partisan arm of the government and no president right or left is going to get the Fed to do what is needed because it will be ugly for the polls. They will just keep kicking the can down the road hoping its the other guys team that is in the office when the shoe finally drops.
