Pilot Head Count/Furloughs

[Ride the Glide]

The recent ALPA Code-a-Phone indicated that UAL management has come up with a business plan that will require approx. 7500 total pilots on the seniority list as of Jul 2004. Just wondering what the current head count is and how many pilots will be furloghed over the course of the next year. How far back into the seniority list will this go? I have some buddies that were hired in 1997 and early 1998 and am hoping they can survive this next round of cuts.

Thanks in advance for your info.

 

[Busdrvr]

----------------
On 7/6/2003 3:33:22 PM Ride the Glide wrote:

The recent ALPA Code-a-Phone indicated that UAL management has come up with a business plan that will require approx. 7500 total pilots on the seniority list as of Jul 2004. Just wondering what the current head count is and how many pilots will be furloghed over the course of the next year. How far back into the seniority list will this go? I have some buddies that were hired in 1997 and early 1998 and am hoping they can survive this next round of cuts.

Thanks in advance for your info.

----------------​

Those numbers will likely go back to early 99. it''s hard to say since the company hasn''t yet done the traditional July "new seniority number" game. 3 years ago, a seniority number of 8000 held captain in SFO. Interesting times indeed.

 

[767jetz]

Based on Steve Forte''s numbers, looks like 500 to 700 more furloughs, starting with the ones on July 31st, which have already been announced.

This would bring us to around 6200 active pilots.

500 more would go to early 1998.
700 more would go to December 1997.

 

[iflyjetz]

The furlough forecast is looking muddier every day. While many complain that UAL doesn''t have a furlough or business plan, I would suggest that they have multiple plans and can change direction at the drop of a hat. It makes it impossible to read anything too deeply right now.
As a comparison, consider Desert Shield/Storm. Does anyone here think that the Pentagon just started drawing up plans after Iraq invaded Kuwait? Does anyone think that there was only one plan without contgency plans?
A company the size of UAL must plan for multiple contingencies, just as the military does.

Back to the furlough thing. I had expected UAL to furlough through Dec 03 and start recalling winter 04-spring 05. Now I''m not so sure. Perhaps only one or two more rounds of furloughs followed by recalls in spring 04. IF the economy continues to recover and UAL is able to fly mainline cheaper than thru UAX or * partners, UAL may see some decent expansion again come summer 04.

 

[767jetz]

Latest word is that in the worst case scenario, the junior pilot at UA in July of 2004, currently has a seniority # of about 7500. These numbers will be adjusted around the 23rd of July.

 

[Winglet]

What''s that translate to in a percentage of the total seniority list?

AA is going to furlough about 25% of it''s total list (almost 14,000 including ex-TWA) in the next 12 months or so. That will take original AA''ers into late 99 hires and leaving only 800 or so (of 2100) ex-TWA pilots.

 

[767jetz]

We started with a little over 10,000. I think the number was around 10,300. So 7500 would mean about 25% also.

We did have a large number of retiements off the top, so with a smaller total work force, once the New seniority numbers come out, my guess is that it will be around 28%.

The current worst case scenario would go back to about December 1997.

 

[ual06]

ALPA Code-a-Phone on 7/15 says 1,555 pilots on furlough, 88 to go on furlough 7/31, and 113 to be furloughed on 8/30.