Pilot cutbacks

[sdavis29]

[blockquote]
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On 12/10/2002 10:38:45 PM ONTHESTREET wrote:

U is just about to half pre 9-11 strength now. BK is very ugly. Latest rumor is 2300 pilots and 160 A/C now. (If we survive)

I heard all the bad stories from the old days about Bk and did not believe them......Well I can tell you it is every bit as bad as the old EA,Braniff, and Pan Am guys said.

So far you guys have taken 400 mil in consessions with about 8900 pilots. U has taken about 460 mil in consessions with 4000 pilots.....and they are back for more as we speak. I think UA is in for a real shock....I know we got one!
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[/blockquote]
on the street just a question..i have seen 160 a/c in a couple of these threads..the tentative pilot deal calls for 279 again..that seems like a big difference. i am not doubting it at all just curious

 

[Bear96]

I think Tilton's recent comments about his vision of the New Shuttle is a big clue and should give all UAL employees cause to worry.

Apparently this time it won't be an "airline within an airline" set-up but rather a separate corporate entity.

So expect much short-haul UA domestic flying to go to this entity, massive mainline layoffs, with an offer to join the New Shuttle (whatever it will be called) at much reduced compensation levels.

 

[DLFlyer31]

[P]
[BLOCKQUOTE][BR]----------------[BR]On 12/13/2002 7:35:11 AM Bear96 wrote:
[P]I think Tilton's recent comments about his vision of the New Shuttle is a big clue and should give all UAL employees cause to worry.[BR][BR]Apparently this time it won't be an "airline within an airline" set-up but rather a separate corporate entity.[BR][BR]So expect much short-haul UA domestic flying to go to this entity, massive mainline layoffs, with an offer to join the New Shuttle (whatever it will be called) at much reduced compensation levels.[/P]----------------[/BLOCKQUOTE]
[P]Tilton and Mullin must have been separated at birth as the entire thing sounds exactly like what DAL is doing.[/P]

 

[767jetz]

I'm still not buying this 5000 - 5500 number. I don't know where people are "hearing" this from. Furloughing that many pilots would take so long, there is no way of predicting the manpower needs that far into the future.

As for the New Shuttle, I think this will be a positive development. If it is run as a seperate entity, according to ALPA it will be flown by United pilots on the United senority list. Pilots could bid into and out of the Shuttle as vacancies open. A 737-300 mainline floater reserve may prefer to fly Shuttle at a lower pay scale, have more relative seniority, and maybe not have to commute. It also means the junior person who may otherwise have been furloughed, has a job instead. It is also better than letting that domestic flying go to a code share partner. (ie: The New USAir, or Atlantic Coast)

For those who like to read Analysts quotes, here's one for you:

{"S&P credit analyst Phil Baggaley, who rates UAL Corp. debt "D" for default, said the carrier is focusing on deep cost cuts rather than drastic capacity cuts, as US Airways did after it filed for bankruptcy.

"That said, the situation is still evolving," he said.

August Cole is spot news editor at CBS.MarketWatch.com in Chicago"}

I think the capacity cuts will not be as drastic as some think. Just my opinion of course. I still stick with my previous prediction of 1000 more ontop of what's been announced, and a total active # of around 7000 - 7500.

 

[ONTHESTREET]

[blockquote]
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On 12/13/2002 1229 AM sdavis29 wrote:

[blockquote]
----------------
On 12/10/2002 10:38:45 PM ONTHESTREET wrote:

U is just about to half pre 9-11 strength now. BK is very ugly. Latest rumor is 2300 pilots and 160 A/C now. (If we survive)

I heard all the bad stories from the old days about Bk and did not believe them......Well I can tell you it is every bit as bad as the old EA,Braniff, and Pan Am guys said.

So far you guys have taken 400 mil in consessions with about 8900 pilots. U has taken about 460 mil in consessions with 4000 pilots.....and they are back for more as we speak. I think UA is in for a real shock....I know we got one!
----------------
[/blockquote]
on the street just a question..i have seen 160 a/c in a couple of these threads..the tentative pilot deal calls for 279 again..that seems like a big difference. i am not doubting it at all just curious

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[/blockquote]

Like I said it was rumor, you know what they say "Believe none of what you hear, half of what you see and you will get it half right, half the time."

279 is now a "hard" number, just like 300 was "hard" a few months ago. After this TA the Pilots will pony up about 540 million in consessions spread over 4000 folks (About 135000 per pilot) But considering the highest paid F/O was only making about 130000 (12 yr 128.22 Group 1 (757,767) 98 contract) prior to the consessions that is one heck of a hit. (I am sorry, I do not have the figures for the last parity raise before the cuts hit but I think the highest paid F/O would have made about 150K, but they never saw the raise before bad juju happened.)

160 jets may have been mgmt's threat to get the next round of cuts passed, Who knows. It looks like southwest guys will be the highest paid in the industry very shortly.

 

[ONTHESTREET]

I would think that UA learned from U's mistakes, so hopefully you are right. That said, you would be amazed how fast they can furlough, U had 250 and 300 going per month for a while. I personally don't know how they kept up with the training float but they did.

They parked 65 737's in a matter of a couple of weeks.

 

[ForkTime2002]

[P]
[BLOCKQUOTE][BR]----------------[BR]On 12/13/2002 3:35:33 PM ONTHESTREET wrote:
[P][BR]They parked 65 737's in a matter of a couple of weeks.[/P]----------------[BR][/BLOCKQUOTE]
[P][BR] [FONT face="Century Gothic"]Sell out, with me oh yea, sell out, with me tonight [BR] [BR] And now they dont care that a non union carrier will hire them and allow them to fly those medium small jets.whats a medium small jet? Gotta get a pair of those Big Time Mainline Sell Out shades.[BR][/FONT] [BR] [BR][/P]

 

[767jetz]

[blockquote]
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On 12/13/2002 3:35:33 PM ONTHESTREET wrote:

I would think that UA learned from U's mistakes, so hopefully you are right. That said, you would be amazed how fast they can furlough, U had 250 and 300 going per month for a while. I personally don't know how they kept up with the training float but they did.

They parked 65 737's in a matter of a couple of weeks.
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[/blockquote]


I think since the parking of aircraft were from one fleet, and the number of fleets are less at US, they were able to furlogh more quickly and keep up with the training bubble. When UA posts a bump because of reduced flying on a fleet, some senior guys take the voluntary bump and actually move up in equipment that their seniority can hold. This causes a larger training bubble and I believe would prevent them from furloghing large numbers at on time. Just a guess though.

This industry has really imploded on all of us. The best we can do now is try to repair the damage, save as many jobs as we can while getting our companies back on their feet, and eventually bring back as many employees as possible, ASAP.

 

[767jetz]

[blockquote]
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On 12/13/2002 551 PM ForkTime2002 wrote:


And now they dont care that a non union carrier will hire them and allow them to fly those medium small jets.whats a medium small jet? Gotta get a pair of those Big Time Mainline Sell Out shades.
[/FONT]

[/P]
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[/blockquote]

Don't quite know what this has to do with UA. Doesn't that comment belong on the USAir board?

 

[luv2fly]

[blockquote]
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On 12/13/2002 3:35:33 PM ONTHESTREET wrote:

I would think that UA learned from U's mistakes, so hopefully you are right. That said, you would be amazed how fast they can furlough, U had 250 and 300 going per month for a while. I personally don't know how they kept up with the training float but they did.

They parked 65 737's in a matter of a couple of weeks.
----------------
[/blockquote]
Parking airplanes is easy, but retraining crews as a result of downbids takes time. Here at Delta, they are shooting for a furlough of up to 1400. Fifteen months after 9-11 and 1015 are on the street. Here is a question. At what point does the cost of training exceed the cost of furlough? With multiple bids triggering thousands of training events, it seems that at some point it would pay to just stop.

 

[ONTHESTREET]

[blockquote]
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On 12/13/2002 8:07:09 PM 767jetz wrote:

[blockquote]
think since the parking of aircraft were from one fleet, and the number of fleets are less at US,

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[/blockquote]

Actually at the time U had as many or more fleet types as UA. U had MD-80,737-200, 737-300/400 (the 200's and 300's were not common type at U) F-100's , A319/320/321(Common type), A330's, B757/767 (Common Type) Diff training for intl. 7 different types but they still managed to dump a bunch at one time.

I am not sure of all the types at UA but I know of 747, 737, 777, 727, and Airbus 319/320 6 types with the 747-200 and 400 being a diff type.

Do you guys split the 737's up or run as a common type like Southwest?

 

[Busdrvr]

[blockquote]
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On 12/13/2002 10:59:06 PM ONTHESTREET wrote:


I am not sure of all the types at UA but I know of 747, 737, 777, 727, and Airbus 319/320 6 types with the 747-200 and 400 being a diff type.

Do you guys split the 737's up or run as a common type like Southwest?
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[/blockquote]

737-300/500, A-319/320, 757/767, 777, 747-400. 5 fleets. UAL no longer flies 727's, 737-200's, DC-10's or 747-200's

 

[wts54]

United seeks rule relief
Contract restrictions add needless costs, airline tells court

By Ann Imse, Rocky Mountain News
December 14, 2002

When a veteran Southwest Airlines pilot retires, one pilot is promoted and a new one is hired and trained.

When a veteran 747 pilot retires from United Airlines, eight to 12 pilots may be pulled off flight duty for four to six weeks of expensive retraining on different jets, says Kit Darby, president of Aviation Information Resources Inc., an airline pilot career information service in Atlanta.

That's because United has five different types of planes to Southwest's one, and United pays pilots more for flying larger planes.

So when someone at the top of the line leaves, a flock of pilots can move up a notch - but most must be retrained to fly another type of jet.

If United replaces a long-haul 747 with a more efficient 777, then 32 pilots normally assigned to it must be retrained, Darby said.

And each one of those 32 could cause another eight to 12 pilots to change jobs. So a move made in the name of efficiency could result in hundreds of pilots being pulled off regular duty for retraining.

These are the types of work rules that boost United's total costs per mile to nearly double Southwest's, according to figures in documents filed by United in bankruptcy court this week.

Over the past decade, low-cost airlines such as Southwest have gone from a "nuisance" to a major force in the industry, the filing says. Today, 70 percent of United's passengers have the option of a low-cost airline, and United must compete, the documents say.

Filing for Chapter 11 protection in bankruptcy court this week gave the airline the ability to cancel its union contracts, where many of these work rules are enshrined.

The airline said bluntly in court documents that "these proceedings will have to address United's collective bargaining agreements," and they must do so immediately to meet lenders' demands.

Banks that gave United enough cash to fly while reorganizing have threatened to ground it and liquidate it if massive cost cuts are not made within several months, according to court documents.

That means painful wage cuts, but also a sea change in the way United operates.

United CEO Glenn Tilton even told reporters at Denver International Airport this week, "It is unfortunate how often people focus on wages.

"The issue of productivity is much more important."

The pilots union declined comment and the mechanics union could not be reached.

Aiming at work rules

The airline gave the first hint of what it considers the most crippling work rules in documents filed in bankruptcy court this week.

Foremost, United took aim at a series of rules in its pilots' contract that limit its ability to fly regional jets - smaller planes it can fly on short routes for 52 percent less than the larger Boeings and Airbuses.

United must "resize and redeploy its fleet - adding both 50- and 70-seat regional jets and grounding some larger aircraft," United consultant Daniel M. Kasper said in an affidavit filed with the court.

Work rules now bar United from flying 70-seat regional jets, and limit it to just 65 regional jets of other sizes, the court documents said.

United's smallest aircraft now are Boeing 737s, with more than 100 seats, though United Express carriers fly 125 regional jets as well as larger BAE-146s and turboprops.

Neither United nor the pilots union spokesman was certain whether the court documents referred to limits on United or on United Express.

Regional jets are narrower, typically with two to four seats across, and may have less headroom.

United says in court documents that its strength is its enormous network of flights, connecting 13,000 city pairs. Adding one city adds traffic to every other city, and United wants to retain that strategy.

But many smaller routes - such as Denver to Moline, Ill. - are money-losers with a Boeing 737, but profitable using regional jets, the filing says.

"United's use of regional jets allows United to compete profitably in short-haul markets with Southwest and other low-cost carriers," the filing says.

Now, most of the regionals must fly from small towns to hubs like Denver. The documents indicate United wants to use them on point-to-point routes between smaller cities, and between hubs.

The provisions in the pilots' contract limiting the numbers, size and routes of regional jets are designed to preserve pilot jobs on larger aircraft, which currently mean fatter paychecks.

The court filings don't discuss United's system of paying more for flying larger planes, or say the airline wants to change it. But that's a key reason pilots have opposed the smaller jets, Darby said.

At America West and UPS, pilot salaries don't change with the type of plane, Darby said. United could consider paying pilots the same rate for all planes, but then the issue becomes, "Would you want to pay the same salary to a pilot flying 35 passengers as one flying 400?" he said. Traditionally, the small planes are flown by less-experienced pilots who are paid less, he noted.

Layoff limits

The court filings also take issue with limits on furloughing pilots and members of the Machinists union. The pilots' contract prohibits layoffs for "any economic or financial considerations, including, but not limited to, the price of fuel, aircraft or other supplies, the cost of labor, the level of revenues, the state of the economy, the financial state of the company, or the relative profitability or unprofitability of the company's then-current operations," according to the filing.

Nevertheless, United says it has cut 841 pilots since Sept. 11, 2001.

The Machinists' contract prohibits United from contracting out work that results in layoffs of its members, the filing noted. If this provision is dropped, some experts say, the most vulnerable United employees may be its plane cleaners. Their jobs could be contracted out to a company that doesn't provide United's high wages and health insurance benefits.

The pilots' contract is full of rules designed to prevent them from becoming exhausted by long hours and thus endangering passengers, so a busy United pilot flies about 70 to 80 hours a month, Darby said.

In addition, they typically spend twice their flying hours working on the ground, getting ready and waiting for flights.

But limits on layoffs may have left more pilots on the payroll than needed. Throw in people on vacation and pilots being retrained due to all the flights the airline has cut. The result? The airline is getting just 36 hours a month of flying time per pilot, court documents say.

Southwest pilots fly 62 hours a month on average. Federal law allows 100 hours.

One United rule allows pilots to deliberately schedule work that conflicts with their vacations - then skip the work without penalty. The filing described one pilot who scheduled 10 days of vacation and stretched it to an entire month off with full pay.

Why did United agree to such contracts? Simply put, its planes cost too much to let them sit idle in a strike. Competitors would jump in and take customers, "so a strike would likely be tantamount to a death sentence," the filing explains.

 

[N421LV]

A few months ago a United F/O was jumpseating with us. He said the wild rumor running around the training center at that time was that if UAL went CH11 they would park all the -400s and attempt to furlough by equipment!

 

[767jetz]

I can believe the company would want to park the -400. They like the 777 much better, even though on some routes there are safety concerns opposed to a -400.

Now furlough by equipment? That's another story. It would NEVER happen. I think Tilton is too smart to not realize the fallout from furloughing out of seniority.