Merger Rumor Mill Can Begin Now
- Thread starter tinpadro
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WorldTraveler
Corn Field
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Fly,
you're the real reason I couldn't stay away. There are some jobs we have to do that we don't get paid for.... you know what I mean, now don't you. 🙂
you're the real reason I couldn't stay away. There are some jobs we have to do that we don't get paid for.... you know what I mean, now don't you. 🙂
It's baaaaaaack.....
I find it interesting that WT was suddenly so "busy" s/he didn't have time to post during and after the time DL reported such horrible numbers last month. (Kinda like USA320Pilot's line .... "I don't have time to read every post here" -- yeah right -- only the one that puts your airline in the best possible light and UA in the worst -- hmmm.) But it was nice to get a break from the comical predictable postings about how great DL was doing compared to everyone else in the industry, especially hapless UA.
But now that that hubbub has died down over that and the spotlight is (momentarily) off of DL's serious troubles, gee look who's back.
WT, since you suddenly found all this time again to enlighten us, let's talk about DL's 2004 loss and how they are doing soooo much better than any other airline. What were those losses again again ... hmmm someone remind me... (And I know, I know, it was all because the "plan" hadn't come together yet, and the brilliance of their strategy hadn't had time to manifest itself yet, and all that. So no doubt 2005 will see $5 billion in profits at the Big D since this year it will all be coming together, right?)
BTW, as Fly was mentioning, who hired you for the "job" you feel you have here? Anyway, good thing you're here. I had NO IDEA UA was having any problems whatsoever until you started pointing it out (over and over and over).
I find it interesting that WT was suddenly so "busy" s/he didn't have time to post during and after the time DL reported such horrible numbers last month. (Kinda like USA320Pilot's line .... "I don't have time to read every post here" -- yeah right -- only the one that puts your airline in the best possible light and UA in the worst -- hmmm.) But it was nice to get a break from the comical predictable postings about how great DL was doing compared to everyone else in the industry, especially hapless UA.
But now that that hubbub has died down over that and the spotlight is (momentarily) off of DL's serious troubles, gee look who's back.
WT, since you suddenly found all this time again to enlighten us, let's talk about DL's 2004 loss and how they are doing soooo much better than any other airline. What were those losses again again ... hmmm someone remind me... (And I know, I know, it was all because the "plan" hadn't come together yet, and the brilliance of their strategy hadn't had time to manifest itself yet, and all that. So no doubt 2005 will see $5 billion in profits at the Big D since this year it will all be coming together, right?)
BTW, as Fly was mentioning, who hired you for the "job" you feel you have here? Anyway, good thing you're here. I had NO IDEA UA was having any problems whatsoever until you started pointing it out (over and over and over).
I think World is still playing fast and loose with the facts. Did you even CRACK OPEN UAL's most recent annual report? Did you? Your job here, World, is to allow all at UAL to face the facts? How many times did I and others tell you as a FACT that UAL would have little or no difficulty finding exit financing? How many times? I told you at least twice, and yet again in your post on the first page of this thread you imply that we had difficulty, yet we have FOUR, read again FOUR, banks that have come forward (at least publicly) saying that they're interested. Yup, we're really having some difficulty there. Will there be strings? Of course! One can't even get a $10,000 car loan without strings. More labor cuts you say? Really? Are you clairvoyant? Do you see a major event coming our way that will require that? See any terrorist attacks in your dreams? Perhaps you're going to predict oil prices for the year? My LEC doesn't know of any further cuts besides the previously announced ones. Please enlighten us with the FACTS, World, about these further labor cuts that are coming our way.
Now let's look at some numbers, World. 1.6B NET loss for the year for UAL. In my opinion, it really should be about a 1.8B NET loss for the year because about 160M came from some sales of assets. 780M operating loss for the year. Revenue INCREASE for the year of 10.3%. So much for those declining revenue predictions you've made in the past. Will Delta's little stunt costs us some bucks? Yup. Over a billion bucks you say in a previous post? Really? Everything I've read had analysts saying 500M for American and UAL. I had Tilton on my flight a few weeks back and he laughed at that 500M figure and implied it would be much lower. Looks like he got 4 banks with their army of independent accountants and analysts to scoff at that 500M figure as well. I guess time will tell.
So let's see. 1.8B NET loss for the year for UAL. 725M of that will be reduced by labor pay/work rule cuts that have already been announced. 611M of that NET loss are costs associated with reorganization (i.e. bankruptcy). That's 1.3B in cost cuts in just those two items ALONE when/if we exit bankruptcy. That's enough to stop cash from exiting our coffers as 874M of our 1.8B net loss was depreciation and amortization.
But leaving out D&A, that leaves 500M left that we need to cover in order to make a NET profit. We'll already be making an operating profit when the paycuts are in place. Fuel cost us 900M this year EXTRA. Is fuel going to spike that much this year too? Maybe. If it doesn't or even goes down a little, there a few 100 millions in savings. How many 100's of millions will the pension compromises save? How much money will be saved by redeploying some company assests to international routes? How much are our costs going to come down when are aircraft/airport leases are finalized downward? How much will revenue go UP this year? How much will be saved as Express flying is flown by cheaper partners? And this stuff is just off the top of my head. We were promised 725M in NON-LABOR cuts as well this year. We'll see if it actually happens, too, but if it does, UAL is actually making a little money.
Pick one or two of the above and suddenly UAL is a profitable entity on an operating and net basis when we exit bankruptcy, barring any major event like a terrorist attack, plane crash, major labor strife, etc. And I guess one could argue that it really doesn't matter what you and I think, it matters what the people with 2.5B burning a hole in their pocket think. I don't think they agree with you World.
Now let's look at some numbers, World. 1.6B NET loss for the year for UAL. In my opinion, it really should be about a 1.8B NET loss for the year because about 160M came from some sales of assets. 780M operating loss for the year. Revenue INCREASE for the year of 10.3%. So much for those declining revenue predictions you've made in the past. Will Delta's little stunt costs us some bucks? Yup. Over a billion bucks you say in a previous post? Really? Everything I've read had analysts saying 500M for American and UAL. I had Tilton on my flight a few weeks back and he laughed at that 500M figure and implied it would be much lower. Looks like he got 4 banks with their army of independent accountants and analysts to scoff at that 500M figure as well. I guess time will tell.
So let's see. 1.8B NET loss for the year for UAL. 725M of that will be reduced by labor pay/work rule cuts that have already been announced. 611M of that NET loss are costs associated with reorganization (i.e. bankruptcy). That's 1.3B in cost cuts in just those two items ALONE when/if we exit bankruptcy. That's enough to stop cash from exiting our coffers as 874M of our 1.8B net loss was depreciation and amortization.
But leaving out D&A, that leaves 500M left that we need to cover in order to make a NET profit. We'll already be making an operating profit when the paycuts are in place. Fuel cost us 900M this year EXTRA. Is fuel going to spike that much this year too? Maybe. If it doesn't or even goes down a little, there a few 100 millions in savings. How many 100's of millions will the pension compromises save? How much money will be saved by redeploying some company assests to international routes? How much are our costs going to come down when are aircraft/airport leases are finalized downward? How much will revenue go UP this year? How much will be saved as Express flying is flown by cheaper partners? And this stuff is just off the top of my head. We were promised 725M in NON-LABOR cuts as well this year. We'll see if it actually happens, too, but if it does, UAL is actually making a little money.
Pick one or two of the above and suddenly UAL is a profitable entity on an operating and net basis when we exit bankruptcy, barring any major event like a terrorist attack, plane crash, major labor strife, etc. And I guess one could argue that it really doesn't matter what you and I think, it matters what the people with 2.5B burning a hole in their pocket think. I don't think they agree with you World.
savyinvestor
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Good point! I myself prefer Boeing! Savy
That's a contradictory sentence. Eliminating the redundancies no longer makes them separate and independent.WorldTraveler said:
True, though to varying degrees at each airline.
I know you want DL to be the one left standing, but it is pretty unclear who will be left. DL's been bleeding the most of late.
Driver, you must be refering to 2003 numbers. The 2004 annual report is not even out yet. Maybe you and Tilton where talking about it on your ride. I don't think there is anything to brag about much yet. This company has a ways to go and it will take a long time to rebuild any equity.
I think the 2004 report should be available in March sometime.
I think the 2004 report should be available in March sometime.
You have to have full facts to compare full facts. We have only been given the preliminary numbers.
You sound like a happy man giving up wages and possibly your pension. I'm not. I work harder, more hours, than ever for less pay. All the while management keeps getting supported by my and my fellow employees pay cuts.
I don't like subsidizing bad management.
You sound like a happy man giving up wages and possibly your pension. I'm not. I work harder, more hours, than ever for less pay. All the while management keeps getting supported by my and my fellow employees pay cuts.
I don't like subsidizing bad management.
Ummmmm.....Those are real numbers. They just don't have the glossy photos and fancy graphs yet. Those source numbers are also in accordance with generally accepted accounting procedures.
Yeah, I'm real happy about giving up all that money and being out of town 18-20 days a month. Brilliant.
Yeah, I'm real happy about giving up all that money and being out of town 18-20 days a month. Brilliant.
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
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Michael,
I thought you were more intelligent than most of the dribble I read from these airline employees but you have REALLY disappointed me.
For the UMPTEENTH time for you and all of these teflon coated UAL clones, DL was about 2 years behind UA and AA in beginning a turnaround. I wouldn't even begin to expect DL to begin to reverse their losses since their former management team was more interested in raping the company for their personal pleasure than turning it around. They have a viable business plan and are moving to make it work. Incidentally, despite 26 months (count 'em) in bankruptcy, UAL still doesn't have a business plan that anyone has been willing to support. The folks at United should be proud of what they have accomplished. Unfortunately, putting on the brakes so you slow the car from 100 MPH to 40 still means you're going to hit the wall with alot of force.
Any no, Mr. Weiss, it is not contradictory to say that if an airline can cut costs and be viable as a merged airline they can do it on their own. If United or any other airline is going to make it, they have to make it on their own first. Mr. Tilton's comments about looking for a merger only solidifies in my mind that he knows nothing about running an airline and will eventually drive United into the ground.
And if you think any legacy airline has come close to stabilizing an airline, I've got stock for you in a couple airlines that begin w/ U.
ualdriver,
you forgot the $1B in revenue erosion that UA will experience in 2005 simply based on Simplifares and Indep.'s entry into IAD-west. And if Indy doesn't make it, I can assure you someone else will be in those markets - and they may be whether Indy makes it or not.
I thought you were more intelligent than most of the dribble I read from these airline employees but you have REALLY disappointed me.
For the UMPTEENTH time for you and all of these teflon coated UAL clones, DL was about 2 years behind UA and AA in beginning a turnaround. I wouldn't even begin to expect DL to begin to reverse their losses since their former management team was more interested in raping the company for their personal pleasure than turning it around. They have a viable business plan and are moving to make it work. Incidentally, despite 26 months (count 'em) in bankruptcy, UAL still doesn't have a business plan that anyone has been willing to support. The folks at United should be proud of what they have accomplished. Unfortunately, putting on the brakes so you slow the car from 100 MPH to 40 still means you're going to hit the wall with alot of force.
Any no, Mr. Weiss, it is not contradictory to say that if an airline can cut costs and be viable as a merged airline they can do it on their own. If United or any other airline is going to make it, they have to make it on their own first. Mr. Tilton's comments about looking for a merger only solidifies in my mind that he knows nothing about running an airline and will eventually drive United into the ground.
And if you think any legacy airline has come close to stabilizing an airline, I've got stock for you in a couple airlines that begin w/ U.
ualdriver,
you forgot the $1B in revenue erosion that UA will experience in 2005 simply based on Simplifares and Indep.'s entry into IAD-west. And if Indy doesn't make it, I can assure you someone else will be in those markets - and they may be whether Indy makes it or not.
"you forgot the $1B in revenue erosion that UA will experience in 2005 simply based on Simplifares and Indep.'s entry into IAD-west. And if Indy doesn't make it, I can assure you someone else will be in those markets - and they may be whether Indy makes it or not."
You pulled $1B in revenue erosion out of the air, quite frankly. For an airline like UAL that, first of all, has very little route overlap with DAL, and second of all, already has the MOST low cost competition overlap than any other carrier out there so wasn't commanding many fares that high in the first place, that's an awful alot of "erosion." Well, I guess we'll see if our monthly revenue starts declining approximately 80M/month....
Someone else will be in those IAD markets? Yeah, you mean like JetBlue? They're already there! You mean someone else will want to come into IAD and compete with both JetBlue and us? Ummm, perhaps but doubtful. I imagne they'll have the same success Independence is having.
You pulled $1B in revenue erosion out of the air, quite frankly. For an airline like UAL that, first of all, has very little route overlap with DAL, and second of all, already has the MOST low cost competition overlap than any other carrier out there so wasn't commanding many fares that high in the first place, that's an awful alot of "erosion." Well, I guess we'll see if our monthly revenue starts declining approximately 80M/month....
Someone else will be in those IAD markets? Yeah, you mean like JetBlue? They're already there! You mean someone else will want to come into IAD and compete with both JetBlue and us? Ummm, perhaps but doubtful. I imagne they'll have the same success Independence is having.
WorldTraveler
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actually, no I didn't pull the $1B out of thin air. Several analysts pegged UA's exposure to SF at about $600M. You must have missed the memo but Simplifares is a NATIONWIDE fare restructuring. Unlike the LCCs, DL is big enough that it can change the fare structure in EVERY marketplace in the US. Yes, UA hasn't matched in every market but that just exposes them to having their revenue siphoned off by every other airline including.... DELTA. And yes, I calculated the IAD exposure all by myself. Have a look at UA's IAD revenues and extraporate what happened to AA at JFK and you'll come up w/ a similar number too.
Bear,
Since you seem to think I drop in just to irritate you, you should know I actually have been using the services of your firm since we last chatted. You should also know that your kind firm REFUSED to rebook a friend of mine to whom I gave Mileage plus tickets on any reasonable flight during a recent winter weather event. Their idea of reasonable was 3 days in advance. He ended up driving 200 miles to another city to get out within 24 hours of his original flight. Don't worry, we called UA reservations at least a half dozen times just to make sure UA lost a whole boatload of money for their intransigence.
ps... in case it's news to you, business travel is at its peak in the fall and winter months... many of us have places to go and people to see.
Bear,
Since you seem to think I drop in just to irritate you, you should know I actually have been using the services of your firm since we last chatted. You should also know that your kind firm REFUSED to rebook a friend of mine to whom I gave Mileage plus tickets on any reasonable flight during a recent winter weather event. Their idea of reasonable was 3 days in advance. He ended up driving 200 miles to another city to get out within 24 hours of his original flight. Don't worry, we called UA reservations at least a half dozen times just to make sure UA lost a whole boatload of money for their intransigence.
ps... in case it's news to you, business travel is at its peak in the fall and winter months... many of us have places to go and people to see.
