March FA Attrition

[kirkpatrick]

Attrition from the ranks of active FA's totalled 40 for March. 22 more ex-TWA FA's retired from furlough status.

MK

 

[jimntx]

Brace yourself, Mark. Your source did not have good info this month. From the Flight Service website...

TOTAL ATTRITION FOR MARCH, 2007: 133

72 Domestic
61 International

Of the 133, 19 were retirees (though the list had 20 names on it). That should tell you something.

Average seniority for total attrition: 21 years
Average seniority for retirees: 31.1 years.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Brace yourself, Mark. Your source did not have good info this month. From the Flight Service website...

TOTAL ATTRITION FOR MARCH, 2007: 133

72 Domestic
61 International

Of the 133, 19 were retirees (though the list had 20 names on it). That should tell you something.

Average seniority for total attrition: 21 years
Average seniority for retirees: 31.1 years.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

jimntx,

(For us non-F/A's), what does this large # mean ? (from every imaginable scenario)

NH/BB's

 

[jimntx]

There was a time that I would have said that an attrition this high would signal a recall. However, I have come to the sad conclusion that the company and the APFA are determined that there will be no recalls.

For that matter, from what I can tell, the APFA is not even trying to get preferential hiring treatment for those that have lost or will lose their recall rights by July 1, 2008. I still say that there is a particularly hot corner of hell reserved for those that have perpetrated or supported this travesty of "union" behavior. But, don't get me started! :angry:

As to what the attrition rate means, who knows? I think that it is telling that of 133 only 19 are retirees. That means that in March, 112 f/as quit, died, or got fired. The great majority quit. I think a lot of f/as who are not anywhere near retirement have decided that it ain't worth it anymore.

However, the data are so mixed, I doubt there are any concrete conclusions you can draw. For instance,

Average monthly attrition for 2007 is 76.33, but the total attrition for the first two months was only 96 f/as, then 133 in March alone.

Average monthly attrition for 2006 was 51.5. The highest single month had an attrition of 84; the lowest, 37.

Average monthly attrition for 2005 was 73.75. Highest - 110; lowest - 46.

Average monthly attrition for 2004 was 82.91. Highest - 216; lowest 41.

If you can find a trend or a meaningful connection in this data, be my guest. Just make sure you share it with the rest of us.

 

[kirkpatrick]

If you can find a trend or a meaningful connection in this data, be my guest.

Jim, I can give you two reasons for declining attrition. One, those dissatisfied with the pay and work rule concessions have already quit, leaving those who find them bearable, if not desireable. Two, declining numbers mean declining attrition even if the percentage quitting remains the same. For example, 4% of 20,000 is 800 while 4% of 16,000 is 640.

As far as recalls are concerned, I'm bothered by a couple of things. One, I'm really not so inflated with my own importance that I think the company and union are involved in a conspiracy to do away with us once and for all. At this point even the most optimistic expectations are that a few hundred of us might get our jobs back. 500 of us would make up 3% of the active workforce, and with 75% already at top of scale it just isn't that important. Recalls mean more dues money for APFA; I can't see why they would conspire to prevent our return. If the company is tossing a bone to APFA it would inevitably cost them money. Why would they offer the union money just to shave off a few bucks in our slightly higher wages, especially keeping in mind that half of us would probably retire in a couple of years anyway?

My second point has been mentioned here before. Someone (IORFA, I think) mentioned a few months back that a supervisor had said the company was carrying an excess of 300-350 FA's. That number will be taken care of by summer. The latest figures show domestic capacity down about 1.8% 2007 over 2006. Unless some major unannounced cutback is in near future (and I've seen no such prediction and cannot fathom why the company would make such a move), then the only logical conclusion is that the company is carrying hundreds of unnecessary FA's on the payroll. If this is so, why no additional furloughs or at least generous granting of minileaves, PVD's, etc, to mitigate the situation?

Time will tell.

MK

 

[Skymess]

My second point has been mentioned here before. Someone (IORFA, I think) mentioned a few months back that a supervisor had said the company was carrying an excess of 300-350 FA's. the only logical conclusion is that the company is carrying hundreds of unnecessary FA's on the payroll. If this is so, why no additional furloughs or at least generous granting of minileaves, PVD's, etc, to mitigate the situation?

Time will tell.

MK

We lost quite a few flights around the system. At my base, IDF, we have an overage because we lost a GRU and KIX flight. Every month they grant pretty much everyone who wants one a bid leave. The reserves at IDF hardly fly.

There is talk of a permanant reduction in force that would send a bunch of people from IDF to DFW. The only problem with that is does DFW have enough flying for these people too. Right now they are giving us stuff from other bases to pad our flying a little bit.

Time will definitely tell what they are going to do. Of course, there is always talk of the mass exodus retirements that will happen in september. We all know how those rumors happen every year though.

 

[eolesen]

I predicted this a year ago. The best 4/10 starts to close in on the reduced flight schedule from Oct 2001, followed by the pay cuts from Apr 2003.

Intuitively, I'd expect most FA's had their best 4/10 between 1997 and 2001, even though the pay cuts didn't kick in until 2003. Sure, there was a contract increase in 2001, but I don't know that it was enough to offset the reduced schedule after 9/11 and during 2002. Remember that AA wasn't back at a full schedule until some point in 3Q02, and the pay cuts took effect at the beginning of 2Q03.

So, starting in 2007, it's likely that a mass exodus will begin, followed in 2008 in management/agent/support staff, who have a best 3/10 in their pensions.

Most FA's will probably have 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001 as their best four years. That means they'll bail out during 2007, otherwise they lose money out of their pensions.

Looks to me like that's starting to happen.

(sorry, ST & Jim -- I was still doing the edit when you replied, but was interrupted by work of all things...)

 

[StraaightTaalk]

I predicted this a year ago.
Looks to me like that's starting to happen.

Doubt it. I've been hearing about the "mass exodus" for years...even as far back as the 80's, when the senior people at the time said, "Just give me lifetime medical, and I'll leave now." They're still flying.

For many, this is a life-long lifestyle, and they truly have nothing else going on, or to go to.

 

[jimntx]

I wish it were that logical. But, I was told that at a recent retirement seminar, some of them who NEVER fly just wanted to b*tch the whole time about having to pay for their medical benefits.

When it was pointed out to them that if they retired, they would not only get paid medical, but also start drawing a check again, the response was "I'm not ready to retire."

A number of them who come to these seminars also don't get the concept of best 4 out of 10 beginning to reduce their monthly benefit (due to RPA pay rates) if they stay much longer. A couple said, "Well, when I get ready to retire, I'm going to fly high time for 4 years to build up my monthly payment." When it was pointed out that only the first 85 hours you fly each month count toward pension credit, they wanted to object to the unfairness of that rule. "When did that start?" is what they demand to know. (Uh...when the pension plan started.)

Also, the problem is that during that period you specified (1997-2001) a lot of them that we are talking about now didn't fly during those years either. AND, once again, the exodus of flight attendants is NOT retirees. Out of the 133 f/as who left the company in March, only 19 retired.

 

[eolesen]

Likewise for the TWU -- there's a cap on how many hours count, yet every year I found one or two guys working doubles and days off for the last couple years who discovered a little late that it wouldn't make up for all of the time they traded off during the prior six or seven years.

I did an analysis for Arpey once which plotted out CSO/CSW for fleet service (he wanted to know if it was costing AA money, and it showed that CS saves money since junior guys tended to pick up shifts from the senior guys more often than the reverse). What it also showed is that CS off dropped off as seniority got past 20 years. One assumption was that by that point, employees finally had the power to hold day shifts which didn't require them to trade off for family obligations. The other assumption was building up time for pension. I'll have to dig that up...

I'd like to think that most people pay a little more attention to the details of their retirement once they hit 45 or 50 (early retirement is possible at 55). Perhaps that's an incorrect assumption on my part...

 

[StraaightTaalk]

God love 'em. Most of them are not going.

Recall, attrition, and career progression issues aside, I, personally, do not feel the need to denigrate them for staying, or for pushing them out the door. They helped build this company, and fought issues (age 32, marriage, gender, etc.) which allowed people like me to be hired.

And, as much as I enjoy Jim's posts, I, personally, do not consider the majority of them to be completely unaware of their contractual rights, and would not characterize the majority of my coworkers as ignorant. Sure, we have many who do not bother to do the research, but we have MANY very savvy people out there, as well.

 

[kirkpatrick]

We lost quite a few flights around the system. At my base, IDF, we have an overage because we lost a GRU and KIX flight. Every month they grant pretty much everyone who wants one a bid leave. The reserves at IDF hardly fly.

From the APFA website:

Staffing Alert - 4.25.07

The Company has notified APFA that they are currently at Step 7 and 8 of the Order of Open Time Coverage at all domestic bases. This means that the Company will be contacting FAs who are low-on-time for assignment (Step 4). Lineholders may be rescheduled provided there is no conflict with a scheduled Duty Free Period. Reserves may also be scheduled on a Duty Free Period. Please refer to Article 9.L. for details.

 

[s80dude]

I think many are concerned about the future of retiree medical. The company already tried to change it once, and that caught a lot of people's attention.

 

[FurloughedByAPFA]

From the APFA website:

Staffing Alert - 4.25.07

The Company has notified APFA that they are currently at Step 7 and 8 of the Order of Open Time Coverage at all domestic bases. This means that the Company will be contacting FAs who are low-on-time for assignment (Step 4). Lineholders may be rescheduled provided there is no conflict with a scheduled Duty Free Period. Reserves may also be scheduled on a Duty Free Period. Please refer to Article 9.L. for details.

For this to occur in April is only an indication of things to come in the summer. APFA should be screaming at the top of their lungs for a recall.

Active flight attendants should be hounding APFA at this point because your summer is going to be dreadful.... h34r:

 

[eolesen]

So let me get this straight... APFA should be screaming for a recall because AA is making its low time FA's work for their guarantees?

It's the end of the month -- wasn't there a lot of time burned up due to more than a couple weather events (one or two at DFW, the snow storms out east, etc) a couple weeks back?