Luv Fades

[luv2fly]

link

 

[Flufdriver]

Don't let KCFlyer read that!! Oh as the playing field levels...going to get interesting down the road!

 

[KCFlyer]

Don't let KCFlyer read that!! Oh as the playing field levels...going to get interesting down the road!

I have to laugh at the "playing field levels" comment. How many trips to bankruptcy court did it take for USAir to "level the playing field"? As I mentioned in another thread...how will you guys compete with the ONLY legacy airline that played the hand it was dealt - American? THEY showed a profit you know...oh yeah...they also funded a little thing called a "pension plan"...and still made a profit. I'm not to worried, because as "the playing field levels", many of you folks will not look so much at Southwest, but over at American...and you'll ask your management how come American has a pension and makes a profit and you don't? Indeed, Kelley even mentions it if you read beyond the headlines

The employees at these bankrupt carriers will be clamoring to get back what they feel they deserve as soon as profitability returns."

And you'll want what American has...especially after a couple of good "level playing field" quarters. So I agree...it's going to get REAL interesting down the road. But it's going to involve you and American far more than you and Southwest.

 

[ngneer]

From the article: "Indeed, Dallas-based Southwest still enjoys some of the lowest costs, the best balance sheet, and the highest profit margins in the industry. And Kelly has still found new opportunities for growth, starting up service in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Denver, and Washington-Dulles International Airport in recent years.

A phase-out of the controversial Wright Amendment that went into effect on Sept. 29, he notes, will allow more flights from Dallas, and the continuing rebuilding of New Orleans will do the same for that city."

Hardly sounds like doom and gloom to me.

 

[X-U]

One of the best things about Southwest management is that they don't worry about what the "experts" and "analysts" think about the way they run their business. Take care of the employees, who will take care of the customers and the profits will follow. Unlike the legacy carrier management who only take care of themselves, and their bottom line shows it. Even after all of the cuts and 2 trips to BK, LCCs CASM is over .10 at 10.70,UAL and CAL over .11, AMR 10.88 LUV is 8.95.

 

[Flying Photog]

As I mentioned in another thread...how will you guys compete with the ONLY legacy airline that played the hand it was dealt - American?

CO's hand is a full house over AA's three-of-a-kind.

 

[KCFlyer]

CO's hand is a full house over AA's three-of-a-kind.

ACtually...while CO is doing well today...they've been thru bankruptcy court a time or two in their own history. But it still doesn't matter....these bankrupt playing field levelers will see a couple of good quarters and want what the other 'legacy' carriers have.

 

[ngneer]

WN isn't fading at Islip:

Islip Town Officials Predict a Big 2006 for Long Island MacArthur Airport
Source: Long Island Business News
Publication date: 2006-10-27

By Ambrose Clancy

Faulty runway aprons, inadequate fire suppression systems - Long Island MacArthur Airport has been grounded in scandal. But the regional airport in Ronkonkoma is still flying high.

In fact, Islip Town officials are predicting a big 2006 for the port. As ammunition, they point to a 9.4-percent spike in passenger traffic between January and September of this year, according to The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. It's a trend town officials believe will continue through the holiday season.

If the gains hold for the remainder of 2006, 2.3 million passengers will have winged into and out of the regional airport - an increase of more than 202,000 passengers over 2005.

MacArthur's numbers show no sign of slowing - and are actually soaring higher than ever. Passenger traffic increased 7 percent from 2004 to 2005 and 5 percent from 2003 to 2004, jumps that are especially dramatic considering passenger traffic increased only 1 percent last year at commercial-service airports nationwide, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.

The boost in passenger traffic in Ronkonkoma has a lot to do with flaws at New York City's airports, noted Ray Mariani, a partner specializing in aviation for the Jericho law firm Nixon Peabody.

"People are frustrated with the level of delays at LaGuardia and Kennedy," Mariani said. "Just getting to those airports is frustrating, and then after you arrive you're subject to delays with crowds and security."

Expanded service from Southwest Airlines has also contributed to MacArthur's upward trend, according to Eichinger. The airline in February began providing service to Fort Myers, Fla., and in June added a new daily nonstop flight to Las Vegas. Southwest also has seven daily nonstops to Chicago out of MacArthur, Eichinger noted.

Southwest is far and away the largest carrier at MacArthur, providing service to about 164,000 passengers in September alone. Continental, Delta and U.S. Airways had about 13,000 passengers combined in September.

 

[jbguppy]

I have to laugh at the "playing field levels" comment. How many trips to bankruptcy court did it take for USAir to "level the playing field"? As I mentioned in another thread...how will you guys compete with the ONLY legacy airline that played the hand it was dealt - American? THEY showed a profit you know...oh yeah...they also funded a little thing called a "pension plan"...and still made a profit. I'm not to worried, because as "the playing field levels", many of you folks will not look so much at Southwest, but over at American...and you'll ask your management how come American has a pension and makes a profit and you don't? Indeed, Kelley even mentions it if you read beyond the headlines And you'll want what American has...especially after a couple of good "level playing field" quarters. So I agree...it's going to get REAL interesting down the road. But it's going to involve you and American far more than you and Southwest.

KC,

Look at the 3rd quarter numbers and tell me how you think UAL is competing with AMR/SWA now. We are roughly 75% of AMR's size and our net profit is 190 million compared to 15 million at AMR.

It doesn't matter that you think we leveled the field in an unfair matter - our cost structure is here to stay for over 2 more years. Cost at SWA/AMR is going up.

SWA would have LOST 160 MILLION in the 3rd quarter without fuel hedges....minus their fuel hedge they are one of the financially worst performing airlines in the sector, perhaps the worst. Their stock is showing this poor performance in an ever continuing decline.

The facts and the numbers don't lie, SWA is on the decline.
And UAL kicked SWA and AMR's butt in the 3rd quarter. What you all need to be scared of is our costs will continue to go down while they are going up at your beloved point to point low frills mid cost carrier.

JBG

 

[jimntx]

KC,

Look at the 3rd quarter numbers and tell me how you think UAL is competing with AMR/SWA now. We are roughly 75% of AMR's size and our net profit is 190 million compared to 15 million at AMR.
And UAL kicked SWA and AMR's butt in the 3rd quarter. What you all need to be scared of is our costs will continue to go down while they are going up at your beloved point to point low frills mid cost carrier.

JBG

Well, let's put those numbers in perspective...
AMR had a $90 million "on paper" write down of some hedging contracts which takes away from "net profit."

Also, AMR made a $230 million payment (the third scheduled, on time payment this year) to the employee pension funds. Now, as a UAL employee, I'm sure you are not familiar with that term. It has to do with a thing called a defined benefit pension plan. It's kind of complicated to explain; so, I suggest you google defined benefit pension--use all 3 words, but don't put them in quotes.

Without those two items, the net profit would have been $335 million. Oh by the way, have you sent Glenn a congratulatory note yet about the BOD being willing to reopen his contract a year early and award him a 40% raise?

 

[jbguppy]

Well, let's put those numbers in perspective...
AMR had a $90 million "on paper" write down of some hedging contracts which takes away from "net profit."

Also, AMR made a $230 million payment (the third scheduled, on time payment this year) to the employee pension funds. Now, as a UAL employee, I'm sure you are not familiar with that term. It has to do with a thing called a defined benefit pension plan. It's kind of complicated to explain; so, I suggest you google defined benefit pension--use all 3 words, but don't put them in quotes.

Without those two items, the net profit would have been $335 million. Oh by the way, have you sent Glenn a congratulatory note yet about the BOD being willing to reopen his contract a year early and award him a 40% raise?

I agree with a lot of your post, but at the end of the day, AMR has those pension plans and that expense is no different than any other. You can't exclude a major ongoing expense and say it didn't hit your bottom line. UAL pays a lot more into 401K's than AMR, so if we exclude that then your argument is blown to bits.

In addition, most employees will not see the defined benefit those pensions promise, just like a lot of us will see nowhere near our promised Social security benefits. Those DB plans won't last the next downturn unfortunately. AMR's long term debt and capital spending requirements in re a very old fleet will cause a storm to cloud their so called Cinderella status.

I'm very sad and upset for those who were close to retirement and lost their DB, but I am better off getting my 15% annual contribution into my 401K rather than counting on a DB that is getting easier to reneg on as time goes along. You have to know the difference between your money and their money that they promise to give you later... Each worker should be wary about counting on any kind of DB in retirement, to crow about it is foolish and short-sighted. If anyone thinks their management wishes them well and would never eliminate their pension think again.

Looking forward to the collective bargaining process,


Good Luck,

JBG

 

[KCFlyer]

KC,

Look at the 3rd quarter numbers and tell me how you think UAL is competing with AMR/SWA now. We are roughly 75% of AMR's size and our net profit is 190 million compared to 15 million at AMR.

And out of that 190 million, how much of was after they funded your pension? You seem to forget that American could have posted even better numbers, but they put almost $190 million into their pensions. And I ask...how long are you willing to go watching American still pull in a 15 million dollar profit AND funding their pensions before you are going to start asking your management for a little bit more of that pie???

 

[donttouchthebeauty]

And out of that 190 million, how much of was after they funded your pension? You seem to forget that American could have posted even better numbers, but they put almost $190 million into their pensions. And I ask...how long are you willing to go watching American still pull in a 15 million dollar profit AND funding their pensions before you are going to start asking your management for a little bit more of that pie???

This is true - they did pay some on there pension, which is great, However.. that by no means defines a one time expense. this is a re-occuring contribution and it does not go away - unless of course AMR falls on hard times and then of course they will be gone.. Or if by chance they become very unlevel on the playing field of UAL, USAIR-AWA, DAL, And NWA... as well as FL and JetBlue.. The list goes on... You see when you have the other airlines (the majority of them) with much lower costs (largely due to pension dumps sadly and unfortunately) then it eventually becomes tooo much to keep paying if everyone else doesnt.. I would just say dont brag tooooo much about your pension, b/c even yours can be dumped by the almighty AMR... and i am sure that Mr. Arpey wont think twice about it considering he has them primed and ready.

 

[jbguppy]

And out of that 190 million, how much of was after they funded your pension? You seem to forget that American could have posted even better numbers, but they put almost $190 million into their pensions. And I ask...how long are you willing to go watching American still pull in a 15 million dollar profit AND funding their pensions before you are going to start asking your management for a little bit more of that pie???

You continue to amaze me with your flawed logic and subjective crap.

Bottom line #1 - UAL spent that money into Defined Contribution plans that are part of regular employee compensation. AMR spent it into their defined benefit plans. Just because they were booked differently in the quarterly results doesn't make a difference. UAL was much more profitable in the 3rd quarter than AMR.

Going forward AMR will continue to have that burden. You may choose to exclude it and make yourself feel better. Bottom line #2 - we are now competing very well with any airline out there. And I can clearly see it is making your blood boil!!! Just admit you were wrong and we can move on to your pointless cheerleading of SWA.

JBG

 

[KCFlyer]

You continue to amaze me with your flawed logic and subjective crap.

Bottom line #1 - UAL spent that money into Defined Contribution plans that are part of regular employee compensation. AMR spent it into their defined benefit plans. Just because they were booked differently in the quarterly results doesn't make a difference. UAL was much more profitable in the 3rd quarter than AMR.

Going forward AMR will continue to have that burden. You may choose to exclude it and make yourself feel better. Bottom line #2 - we are now competing very well with any airline out there. And I can clearly see it is making your blood boil!!! Just admit you were wrong and we can move on to your pointless cheerleading of SWA.

JBG

Wow. It would seem to me you all could have helped yourselves and your stockholders if you would have just opted to give up your pensions instead of having a bankruptcy judge agree to give them up for you. Does it make you feel proud?

What makes my blood boil is this - because UAL was able to spend 3 years in bankruptcy "protection" - they pretty much caused Delta and Northwest to go that route as well. Had the market been permitted to work - Delta and Northwest employees would still have their pensions and their employers would be much stronger, many former United employees would have found employment with one of the other surviving airlines...and the void created by the loss of United would have filled over time. As it is - you somehow take glee in watching what you preceive to be the 'downfall' of the airline that 'lowered the bar' for the industry. Look in the mirror...your company has been instrumental in lowering the bar...so much that it's taken OTHER companies into bankruptcy.