Loads Up Significantly

[genejockey]

Load factor month to date is up significantly:
September 1 - 15th, 2002 = 57.9%
September 1 - 15th, 2003 = 66.1% (14% increase, 8.2 percentage points)

September 2002 LF = 60.3%........May have a chance at 70% LF for month of September. Please spare me the "loads have nothing to do with profitability" comments. I am well aware. The point of this post is that demand appears to be steadily rebounding from the lows post 911.

 

[N628AU]

I wonder what the year over year capacity change is. I bet we are down there as well. While traffic may be up, I doubt the change is as drastic as the load factor change would lead one to believe.

 

[TomBascom]

... The point of this post is that demand appears to be steadily rebounding from the lows post 911.

Then maybe you should post demand numbers.

Load factor is not demand. Neither is traffic but it comes a lot closer.

 

[AtlanticBeach]

Load factor month to date is up significantly:
September 1 - 15th, 2002 = 57.9%
September 1 - 15th, 2003 = 66.1% (14% increase, 8.2 percentage points)

September 2002 LF = 60.3%........May have a chance at 70% LF for month of September. Please spare me the "loads have nothing to do with profitability" comments. I am well aware. The point of this post is that demand appears to be steadily rebounding from the lows post 911.

Capacity is down from last year about 10%. Therefore, the same number of passengers creates a LF of 67%. It is also important to consider how low the loads were on 9/11/02 (less than 30% on a reduced schedule) and the days surrounding that date.

Another aspect that will increase LF will be further decreased capacity related to the hurricanes (especially Isabel if she takes a track near PHL or disrupts the north-south air lanes for a long time).

Even if the final number is over 70%, that is not an indication of a rebound of demand. Until management "rightsizes" the employees from the current low levels, has better irregular ops planning, fare rationalization and decides what vision is present, US appears destined to tread water.