JetBlue Airways Orders 100 EMBRAER 190 Jet Aircraft, with Options for an Additional 100

[will fix for food]

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On 6/10/2003 11:18:00 AM ITRADE wrote:


Slightly off-topic, but a follow-on from will fix for food''s point:

Will the development and maintenance of the ERJ-190 differ significantly from the ERJ-170 that is slated for delivery and introduction into service later this year?  The -170 may offer many common features and any bugs may be worked out in the -190 when its delivered - in 2005.



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Even if they are 100% compatible, two years is not much time to work out the bugs. Take my word on this one. I went through a new type introduction (Embraer product), and it was a mess.

If you want a good example of teething problems, look at the CRJ-700. It is essentially a stretched CRJ-200 with a few new systems added and as a fleet they are practically junk at this point.

 

[AAG2000]

They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery...

Delta Will Expand Fleet With 100-Seat Planes

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030610/1323001047_1.html

 

[ITRADE]

Heard that JBLU wants to base a good number of its ERJ-190s at IAD. The flight for Dulles appears to be resuming.

 

[BOBO BENKINS]

KCFlyer,
I agree, I think this is a huge mistake. This will eventually drive Jetblue''s operating costs through the roof. This is the beginning of the end for them.

 

[funguy2]

Fleet commonality has diminishing returns, so I don''t see that as a problem. Going from 1 to 2 airplanes, having fleet commonality is a sound investment. Going from 100 to 200 planes, well, it just doesn''t matter as much... But having said that, two fleets will cost more than one.

Also, my understanding is that the A318 economics will be poor... I have heard that the fuel burn and aircraft weight is similar to an A320... but with 50 or so less seats...

Having said that, I just am not sure there is room for another 200+ plane airline in the domestic market right now... Also, how many fast growing start-ups are still around? I think I can count them on one hand... And I am sure Southwest did not grow this fast. That would be an interesting comparison if someone has the numbers...

I think this is a VERY RISKY move that is predicated on one of the majors "going away"... At this point, all signs point to United, but UA has already surprised many by still being here now... Is this a bad idea? Maybe not... But I definitely think it is too soon... too much growth too fast.

 

[AAG2000]

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On 6/10/2003 11:53:05 AM jj wrote:

Can you put TVs in those 190s?

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Yes, they will have DirecTV at every seat, just like the A320''s.

But here''s the million dollar question: are 190s small enough to be considered "regional" aircraft, and therefore get around the slot restrictions at LGB? Things could get interesting...

Anyway, I think this is a great move. The fact is, there are tons of markets that aren''t big enough for the A320, but the A319 and especially A318 mean a tradeoff in efficiency. The 190 was tailor-made for smaller point-to-point routes, yet it''s enough of a "real plane" that JetBlue will be able to maintain the levels of service that its customers have come to expect, without making them feel like they''re being shunted off to a "regional" airline. And, by swooping in at a time when Embraer was in desperate need of a launch customer, I bet B6 got an incredible deal--probably including tons of performance and reliability guarantees, in case of any teething problems.

 

[luv2fly]

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On 6/10/2003 1:15:03 PM AAG2000 wrote:

They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery...

Delta Will Expand Fleet With 100-Seat Planes

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030610/1323001047_1.html

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Actually, Delta has been interested in a 100 seat aircraft for quite a while. The sticking point has been who will fly them, and with over 1300 Delta pilots on furlough, it would stand to reason there will be some compromise. The 737-200's at Delta are currently configured for 100 seats

 

[AAG2000]

But look at the upstate NY markets (plus BTV) that previously had nothing more than Dash 8 service but now see multiple daily A320s. Surely there are other markets that the majors couldn't serve successfully with 737s, leaving only regional service, but that JetBlue--with its lower costs--could serve profitably with the 190s. We've all heard about the "Southwest Effect," but there is very likely a similarly potent "JetBlue Effect," capable of stimulating demand in all sorts of markets. To prove my point, who ever thought that New Yorkers would be flocking to JFK to catch a domestic flight? Or that airlines would be fighting over slots at LGB, ignored for years as a backwater in the shadow of LAX?

Current levels of service simply aren't good indicators of latent demand in any given domestic market. Some regional markets will always remain regional markets, and others have huge untapped potential, but for those in-between destinations where an immediate jump from Dash 8s to A320s might be a bit too dramatic, the 190 offers considerable flexibility.

 

[lownslow]

Does anyone know what the fuel burn rates are projected to be for the Embraer 190 as opposed to the 717 or the A-318? Ideally, the A-318 would be the best choice for JetBlue for commonality reasons, but as a shrink, it will most likely be heavy and suffer a penalty over the 717 which was designed around the ~100 pax market. The 190 has only a slightly longer range (~10%) than the 717-200HGW, but carries a couple fewer pax. Seeing as how the 717-200HGW has the range to make it from Chicago to just about anywhere in N. America with the exception of Alaska, Panama, and Costa Rica (based on the map on Boeing''s website), the loss in range over the 190 would appear to be rather minor. In addition, the 717 is a proven product with 5 years of service already (and based on 33 years of experience with the DC-9 and MD-80 prior to that), whereas the 190 is an entirely new product from a company new to that particular market.

 

[michael707767]

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On 6/10/2003 3:02:08 PM luv2fly wrote:

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Actually, Delta has been interested in a 100 seat aircraft for quite a while. The sticking point has been who will fly them, and with over 1300 Delta pilots on furlough, it would stand to reason there will be some compromise. The 737-200''s at Delta are currently configured for 100 seats

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There is no debate about who will fly a 100 seat aircraft at Delta. Anything over 70 seats will be a mainline aircraft. Its in the DAL pilot contract and Fred Reid has publicly said the same. There has been debate about pay rates for such an aircraft, but the Delta pilots lost the ability to refuse to fly an aircraft if there is no deal on pay rates, instead it goes to an arbitrator who will decide the rate. Care to guess what kind of rate an arbitrator will give them in todays environment?

 

[whlinder]

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On 6/10/2003 12:42:25 PM ITRADE wrote:


Heard that JBLU wants to base a good number of its ERJ-190s at IAD.  The flight for Dulles appears to be resuming.

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Here''s hoping they do.

 

[AAG2000]

Let''s not start an argument about DL pilot pay rates here on the JetBlue board--my only point was that Delta was awfully quick to acknowledge the need for new-generation 100-seat jets following B6''s announcement this morning. I wonder how long before DL orders 190s (or their equivalent) in that nasty green paint.

 

[AirplaneFan]

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On 6/10/2003 2:03:08 PM funguy2 wrote:


Having said that, I just am not sure there is room for another 200+ plane airline in the domestic market right now... Also, how many fast growing start-ups are still around? I think I can count them on one hand... And I am sure Southwest did not grow this fast. That would be an interesting comparison if someone has the numbers...

I think this is a VERY RISKY move that is predicated on one of the majors "going away"... At this point, all signs point to United, but UA has already surprised many by still being here now... Is this a bad idea? Maybe not... But I definitely think it is too soon... too much growth too fast.

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I might agree with you that there is not enough room for all the airlines. However, there is not a glut of low-fare airlines, only high-fare airlines. The question will be which high-faee airlines will not be with us or will they choose to evolve into low-fare airlines.

I think this is a great move by JetBlue.

 

[HPearlyretiree]

I think its a good idea as well, provided that they can continue the same level of service on the Embraer planes, and are able to keep the dispatch level high by having enough maintenance. The fact that the Embraer planes are brand new is a good thing. Using the 318 would be a good savings for commonality and training, but I don''t believe that the 318 will be as efficient as the Embraer.

They just have to remember to keep the expenses down and continue to do it right, its all too easy to blow through money when you are starting up something new, just ask anyone who was at National.

 

[michael707767]

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On 6/10/2003 448 PM AAG2000 wrote:

Let's not start an argument about DL pilot pay rates here on the JetBlue board--my only point was that Delta was awfully quick to acknowledge the need for new-generation 100-seat jets following B6's announcement this morning. I wonder how long before DL orders 190s (or their equivalent) in that nasty green paint.

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Fair enough, no arguments about pay. But, from what I have heard, Delta has been looking very hard at a 100 seater for some time now, and is close to a decision. I don't their interest in a 100 seater is anything new. I think we will hear something by the end of the summer.