Fliers Cashing In Miles

It's a slow day so I'll take the bait...

KCFlyer said:
I thought that a financial report with ($x.xx) in the "profit" column meant it was negative. My bad.

Yes, you are bad. The entire success or failure of the company can hardly be laid at the feet of DM. Which is what you're attempting to do with this little piece of misdirection comparing DM to the entire bottom line. It's the same thing you do when you start in on the "unprofitable fare" mantra.

You're quite right that there is no line item in any of the financial data that isolates DM. There are, however, various penumbra and ephemera that can be tied together to shed some light on the subject. Page 66, paragraph "i" of the 2003 Annual Report is a good start:

(i) Frequent traveler program
US Airways accrues in Traffic balances payable and unused tickets the estimated incremental cost of travel awards earned by participants in its Dividend Miles frequent traveler program when the requisite mileage award levels are achieved. US Airways also sells mileage credits to certain marketing partners. US Airways defers the portion of revenue attributable to future transportation and recognizes it as passenger transportation revenue when the service is provided. The remaining portion of sales proceeds is recognized immediately as a component of Other operating revenues.

We know from elsewhere in the report (page 13) that they value said trips at the incremental cost of that trip and, doing the math, that that works out to something less than $14/trip (6.2 million awards, $85M liability) or 0.05 cents per mile (figuring an award as a standard 25,000 mile award).

The quarterly cost of the liability the award redemption rate of 1.2M per equals 300,000 trips per quarter -- or about $4M in expense.

We also know from the August Quarterly Report (covering the quarter ending June 30 '04), page 13:

Operating Revenues - Passenger transportation revenues increased $319 million or 10.8% due to a 12.1% increase in RPMs partially offset by a 1.2% decrease in yield. Cargo and freight revenues decreased 2.7% primarily due to lower mail and freight volume. Other revenue increased 10.5% primarily as a result of an increase in mileage credit sales and the impact of increased fuel prices on third party fuel sales.

"Other" is listed on page 2 as $162 million. A $17 million revenue increase in a single quarter primarily due to "an increase in mileage credit sales" strongly suggests to me that they're making pretty good money on those sales. If "primarily" means "half or more" then we're looking at $8M.

In other words just the increase in sales, not even including the baseline sales, easily covers the expenses related to DM.

That sure looks like making money hand over fist to me.

Well, my friend, you also have two standard rants, and oddly enough, it is DM and the fare structure. You are correct...SWA does indeed act quite differently than US acts.

That is not what I said. I said that SWA acts quite differently than you recommend US should act. There's a world of difference between those statements.

What is the difference between success and roadkill? The only mythology I see is that management at US seems to think that success can only come from cost cuts out of labor.

That's not a myth. That's just a report on their actions. And while inflamatory on this board it's just another bit of misdirection on your part.

The SWA mythology that legacy carriers, analysts, the press and laymen fall for time and time again has to do with the factors that suposedly make SWA successful. In many cases the myth has an underlying truth behind it but you have to get beyond the superficial characteristics if you want to leverage it successfully somewhere else. I think the carriers are finally starting to understand that. Some analysts get it too. The press is hopeless.

So...why complain when they try to pattern their DM program after CO or Delta?

It's all about differentiation. Being "just like" DL or CO is as big a mistake as being "just like" SWA.

Why complain when they try to tie the credit towards elite status to the price paid for the ticket?

They haven't offered to do such a thing. If and when they do then I might think it is a good move -- quite a few of my tickets have been in the $1+/mile range. It depends, of course on how they approach it. The changes that were attempted in August of '02 were problematic in many ways. The threads on that topic were quite long and involved. Review them if you've forgotten.

Why complain when they restrict award levels.

You tell me. Who's complaining about that? It is one of the ways they keep the cost of redemption down. I understand it and I can work with it. I can think of ways to tweak the process for the better and I would encourage US to move towards a model closer to RR or SPG but it's a small thing.

If you're talking about upgrade inventory levels then I refer you to l4pi's post regarding your lack of understanding of the issues.

Should they implement "Go Fares" in the F class cabin, will you complain if they implement limits on upgrades, since they will be offering "affordable" advance purchase fares in F class, and our looking at increasing the revenue from those seats?

More power to them if they can actually sell them. GoFares in F are a wonderful thing. Selling seats is not incompatible with awards or upgrades.

As to your common "why complain" theme -- we're customers. We get to do that. We're the ones with the money that the company wants to extract from our pockets into their coffers. Every complaint is a gift...
 
:down: I cashed all my miles in a month ago,i have people calling me if they should to ,I advised use them today. I myself will never by a another ticket on U.
 
I could be wrong but I was under the impression that milage in the DM program of U is mile for mile with the Star Alliance and at least United so even if Usairways go under the miles will be protected in the carriers of the Star Alliance..

I am also betting that if U fold it would be an advantage for United who probably would get the investment needed to take over its fellow star alliance routes.
 
whlinder said:
IIRC when Ansett folded, no airline picked up their outstanding mileage liabilities... FWIW
[post="176432"][/post]​

True.

OTOH there's a world of difference between Ansett's markets and US'. When Ansett folded there was really only one place for the customers to go. If US should fold (heaven forbid) there are multiple competitors all of whom have significant interests in obtaining access to those markets. Purchasing established customer relationships and revenue streams is way cheaper than capturing customers from a clean sheet of paper. Taking the DM balances as part of the deal is 1) not that big a deal in terms of the money and 2) necessary if you really expect the customer relationship to survive.

Of course, as l4pi has pointed out, honoring the miles in and of itself won't clinch the deal -- the acquirer would still have to perform. But not honoring the miles would be like stepping up to the plate with an 0-2 count...

I think you'll also find that in a liquidation scenario that DM will be viewed as an asset. They will have a responsibility to sell it -- and relatively quickly as it is a fairly perishable asset. Someone will probably get a good deal on it if it comes to that.
 
TomBascom said:
I think you'll also find that in a liquidation scenario that DM will be viewed as an asset. They will have a responsibility to sell it -- and relatively quickly as it is a fairly perishable asset. Someone will probably get a good deal on it if it comes to that.
[post="176444"][/post]​
And I think it won't. Hopefully, we'll never find out.
 
I see on another thread that people are predicting a filing on Sept 12. Hopefully I will be able to get back from London that day. That return flight will qualify me for CP which is interesting in retrospect. I have to admit to feeling pretty much like a fool for flying US at this point but so it goes. So far I have enjoyed the trips and flights at least.

I am figuring out how to dump about 350,000 miles remaining in my DM account this week. Hoping if I can get some *A tickets they will be honored. I was over 500,000 at one point, maybe around 700,000 so I got the balance down some. I have pretty much written off the miles in my mind although its enough to try a save. I was hanging on to them for an gift for the inlaws but they probably wont be able to do the trip in time. So it goes, plan b for that.

Its a loss for me if US fails, but I realize the loss for the employees and the communities depending on US is a lot more. It will just make me feel stupid when I think about it and heaven knows I do that for enough other reasons that this isnt going to matter much. And my friends that make fun of me for flying US will do it a bit more, but no big deal.

I wont be with the "masses" though. Although I have some flying to do to requalify on AA and UA this year I am already at mid tier on UA and bottom elite on AA. If I had spread my US miles around I would be a bit better off, probably top tier on both AA and UA but again, not a great loss for me. The real loss will be US, and it will be a damn shame if it happens. I flew with US through the first Ch11. Even took a few extra flights and brought the wife along. Not this time though, I dont see this one playing out the same way.
 

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