Election year 2020

Dog Wonder said:
Shorthand for "Let me find an excuse."
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I can help. In the conspiracy happy GOP, those actions were actually BIDEN supporters who are trying to make Trump look bad by blocking traffic so that someone who was undecideed in New Jersey would be so pissed off by being held up by "Trump supporters" that they would vote for Biden. It's something that the deep state and antifa have been working on for weeks.
 
NewHampshire Black Bears said:
Ahh, All KNOWING Eric.

You forgot one thing.

Kiss the SENATE, Bye, Bye !!!!!!!
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Nah, my prediction from last month of the 50/50 Senate sticks. That's also what RCP is predicting (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html)

I still see NC, AZ, and MI as too close to call. I don't see any case where the Senate races going differently than the top of the ticket, and the polls which were correct in 2016 and 2018 are breaking towards Trump in NC and AZ. MI is anyone's guess. Gretchen Whitmer has done a lot of damage and it doesn't help that Biden has consistently called her a great governor. The people who live and work there aren't quite so thrilled with her.

Last time you and I discussed this, MT, SC and IA were still in play. That's now shifted to a four point lead for Ernst and a seven point lead for Trump. Graham(SC) and Daines (MT) are also showing leads. Taking those three seats out of play greatly reduces the chance of an outright control change.

The alarming data point for Tuesday is Biden is polling at 41% in Iowa, which should be setting off alarm bells in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Looking back as far as 2000, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin have tracked almost the same. Iowa went for Bush in 2004 and Minnesota stayed with Clinton in 2016, but otherwise where one has gone the other two have followed. Either Iowa is an exception again like 2004, or things look worse for Biden than the polling has been showing in WI and MN.
 
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I don't know that Iowa is as alarming as it might've been even 4 years ago. The state has been shifting further and further right (especially compared to MN); that's only accelerated in the last 12-16 months.
 
eolesen said:
Nah, my prediction from last month of the 50/50 Senate sticks. That's also what RCP is predicting (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html)

I still see NC, AZ, and MI as too close to call. I don't see any case where the Senate races going differently than the top of the ticket, and the polls which were correct in 2016 and 2018 are breaking towards Trump in NC and AZ. MI is anyone's guess. Gretchen Whitmer has done a lot of damage and it doesn't help that Biden has consistently called her a great governor. The people who live and work there aren't quite so thrilled with her.

Last time you and I discussed this, MT, SC and IA were still in play. That's now shifted to a four point lead for Ernst and a seven point lead for Trump. Graham(SC) and Daines (MT) are also showing leads. Taking those three seats out of play greatly reduces the chance of an outright control change.

The alarming data point for Tuesday is Biden is polling at 41% in Iowa, which should be setting off alarm bells in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Looking back as far as 2000, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin have tracked almost the same. Iowa went for Bush in 2004 and Minnesota stayed with Clinton in 2016, but otherwise where one has gone the other two have followed. Either Iowa is an exception again like 2004, or things look worse for Biden than the polling has been showing in WI and MN.
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Chit', I'll take 50/50, with VP HARRIS breaking ties !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Sidebar for E: I was back in the WOW Counties recently, and it was almost 50-50 sign-wise. That *never* would've happened if just 16-18 mos. ago. Also was in another rural county, and it was (approx.) 60-40 Biden.

Anecdotal of course, but I thought it was interesting...
 
Kev3188 said:
I've see the Trafalgar Group pop up all over the place. How come they seem to be the only ones showing Trump ahead?
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Because they were the only polling outfit that correctly called 2016 for Trump while all the others were wrong. By a lot.
 
Kev3188 said:
I've see the Trafalgar Group pop up all over the place. How come they seem to be the only ones showing Trump ahead?
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Trafalgar uses a slightly different polling model/methodology than the others that uses a mix of live polling with online polling to reach folks without landlines or who might not want to talk to a person.

One of the discrepancies Trafalgar Group noticed in its own polling was that online polls were more dependable than polls conducted over the phone, the latter of which Cahaly said returned results that were 3 to 4 points off.

In mid-October, Cahaly told the National Review that his research indicated Biden supporters were five times more likely to agree to speak with pollsters than Trump supporters were, another element that could sway the results of a voter survey.

"It didn't take us long to figure out we had a social desirability situation playing out," Cahaly told Newsweek. "When faced with a live caller especially, people cater their answer in a way that will make them look best in the eyes of the person asking the question."

Cahaly said his team used the "neighbor" question—which asks voters how they believe their neighbors are voting—in 2016 to give voters a way to share their own views on a candidate without fear of judgment. "It's a projection device.It lets you say what you want to say without being judged for it," he said. "We saw that in almost every state, Hillary would drop and Trump would go up, when you asked who your neighbors vote for."

After seeing how that question impacted poll results, Cahaly said his team began incorporating more elements of anonymity for their respondents in an attempt to drill down to voters' real opinions. "The more anonymous your poll is, the more likely somebody is to tell you the truth," he said.
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Looking at the final polls today from all of the other "establishment" polling groups, they're pretty much tracking pretty much the same as they did in 2016 for Clinton, which tells me that either they believe Democrats are more enthusiastic about Biden than they were Clinton, or they didn't learn anything from their broken models. I don't think anyone is more enthusiastic for Biden than they were for Clinton.
 
eolesen said:
I don't think anyone is more enthusiastic for Biden than they were for Clinton.
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I disagree. There were a LOT of people who actually viewed Hillary as the lesser of two evils. I know that in KC there is considerably more enthusiasm for Biden than there was for HIllary. That's based simply on the number of yard signs. You didn't see all that many for Hillary in 2016. There are probably 10 times (at least) the number of yard signs for Biden.
 
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