US Airways Minimum Active (Mainline) Fleet – CEO’s "modest fleet reduction" Comment Appears To Violate Pilot’s Contract
US Airways reports first quarter results
On May 6 US Airways issued a press release discussing first quarter results and the company said, "While major combat operations in Iraq
are now effectively over, we continue to see its lingering impact on the industry, and we anticipate a lengthy recovery of demand. Our summer schedule has been set, and our pilot bids have been extended through July, so we will not disrupt the summer travel season and our chances for recovery. However, if we do not see improvements in traffic and yield, we may be forced to make some
modest fleet reductions in September to further protect the airline’s financial position."
US Airways – ALPA Restructuring Agreement, Job Security and Grievance Settlements, Attachment E
Minimum Active Fleet - No less than 275 aircraft (including permanent bid plus 8% for maintenance and spares), with daily utilization rate measured monthly of 10 hours. In the event of Chapter 11, the minimum active fleet may be no less than 245 (permanent bid plus 8% for active spares).
Revisions to Restructuring Agreement, LOA 83, Accelerated Small Jets
Minimum Aircraft - As a condition of implementing and maintaining any of the Productivity Improvements, the Minimum Active Fleet specified in Attachment E of the Restructuring Agreement shall be increased to 279 aircraft (
excluding SJs but including permanent bid plus 8% for active spares) with daily utilization rate measured monthly of no less than 10 hours,
whether or not the Company is in Chapter 11. The Minimum Active Fleet number may be reduced only as made necessary by a new force majeure event, which includes acts of terrorism with a material adverse impact on commercial aviation.
Chip’s OpEd Comment: US Airways is contractually required to operate a Minimum Active (Mainline) Fleet of 279 aircraft. The only way the company can reduce the fleet is to reach a mutual agreement with ALPA or declare "force majeure", if an event occurs that has a "material adverse impact on commercial aviation". In my opinion, major combat operations in Iraq are now effectively over and US Airways has not experienced a "material adverse impact" on its financial performance because:
- US Airways ended the first quarter with total restricted and unrestricted cash of $1.84 billion, including $1.27 billion in unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.
US Airways outpaced the industry in improving cost per available seat mile (CASM) for its mainline operations, ranking between Continental Airlines and America West Airlines on a stage length adjusted basis.
On May 15 the Pittsburgh Business Times said US Airways is slated to receive slightly more than $216 million from a $2.3 billion pool set aside by Congress to help defray costs related to aviation security measures taken in the wake of Sept. 11, 2001, according to the federal Transportation Safety Administration. The money was expected to be delivered to the carrier on May 16. Also noteworthy, Delta Air Lines, the nations third largest airline, recently said it lost $125 million due to the Iraqi War. The Atlanta-base airline is the largest carrier to Europe where the greatest amount of war related revenue was lost; therefore, from this observers perch US Airways may have received more funds from the federal government than it lost due to the war.
On May 16 the Pittsburgh Tribune Review reported US Airways will get another break from the federal government when the TSA suspends the passenger security fee, which amounts to $2.50 per flight segment, from June 1 through Sept. 30. The fee could save US Airways roughly $35 million over those four months, based on passenger boardings of more than 3.5 million last month.
US Airways has implemented its domestic code share alliance with United Airlines. In bankruptcy court papers the Arlington-based carrier said it expected its increased revenue, once the alliance was fully implemented, would increase by approximately $200 million per annum through the new business relationship. Also noteworthy, US Airways recently said its alliance revenue was exceeding expectations.
On May 15 Reuters reported "US Airways and Lufthansa reached a code-sharing agreement that would give the American carrier a new business foothold just weeks after emerging from bankruptcy. The deal could yield both companies an estimated $50 million annually" and when US Airways joins the Star Alliance as expected (according to multiple news reports) the total revenue increase would climb to $75 million per year.
On May 17 the New York Times reported executives from the Star Alliance would vote in Washington on whether to let US Airways join the group on May 31, which is expected to occur.
US Airways told the ATSB and bankruptcy court its regional jet order would generate about $300 million in new revenue, once the aircraft are fully deployed.
Since the end of the Iraqi War, jet fuel prices have dropped about 40% from $1.05 to 65 cents per gallon, which is the company’s second largest expense.
US Airways implemented its War Contingency across-the-board union 5% wage deferral effective April 1, for up to 18 months, which gives the airline additional cash flow relief. This contractual item is a corporate benefit unavailable to its competitors.
On May 14 Reuters reported the Travel Industry Association of America (TIA) projects Americans will take 275.4 million leisure trips during June, July and August, an increase of 2.5 percent from last summer.
Sam Buttrick, a UBS Warburg analyst, told the Chicago Tribune on May 16, "The (airline) environment is "getting better, not worse. The industry is clearly recovering."
Lufthansa chairman and CEO Juergen Weber said in a May 15 news release US Airways "a newly invigorated company".
SARS has had a dramatic effect on revenues at United Airlines, Northwest Airlines, and other Pacific carriers, but US Airways has been largely immune to this negative fundamental problem because it does not fly west of Los Angeles, San Francisco and other West Coast cities.
From this observers perspective, since the end of the Iraqi war, US Airways’ loads have dramatically increased, largely due to a release of pent-up demand and the reduction of passenger fear, which should be indicated in the May traffic reports the firsts week of June.
The second and third quarters are typically the strongest for the company.
Conclusion: Based on the fundamental factors listed above, I believe US Airways cannot reduce its mainline fleet below the current limit of 279 aircraft because current fundamental factors do not support a "force majuere" claim and ALPA will not authorize a fleet reduction. If the company attempts to lower the fleet to less than 279 aircraft, this move could be another major violation of the CBA.
Best regards,
Chip