Delta opens line hangar at NRT.

[WorldTraveler]

get the topic locked.

it's done.

your lectures will do nothing but backfire.

and for the future, save them for when you are willing to apply them to each side.

I'm not expecting anything to change, BTW.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

then you should be able to connect that the assertions that some have made about share loss and a dying hub for DL in NRT is as silly as the notion that WN is dying in ATL - and you are incapable of thinking due to a work injury.

 
You should look at pg.20 of the Investor Day 2014 presentation:
It appears that commavia (and maybe others) were indeed correct about DL and Japan, and you were wrong.
Who's silly now?
 
 - Reduce 2015 Pacific capacity levels by6-8%, including a 15% reduction from Japan in light of weakening yen which is mitigated by expected 2015yen hedge benefit of $145 million
-  Increase direct flights to non-Japan Asia by 10-15%

 

[Kev3188]

I'm not lecturing. I'm asking to the board's most prolific poster to set the tone and please stay on topic.

NFW I'm trying to get this one closed; I actually think it's and interesting turn of events...

 

[WorldTraveler]

Holy cow you are dense.

no one has EVER said that DL would not reduce capacity to/from Japan.

Commavia has repeatedly made the statement that DL would lose in Japan.

All US carriers are reducing capacity to/from Japan.

Japanese carriers have already done so.

they have no choice but to try to hold onto what they have because they have no other hubs.

Japan will be used less as a connecting point for ALL carriers.

DL's market share in Japan has not changed and will not change any more than WN's market share has changed in ATL as they have dehubbed and moved to a point to point operation.

it is not a hard concept to understand.

either you are really, really slow or highly combative.

 

[commavia]

False.  I'm not saying Delta "would" lose in Japan.  I'm saying they already have.
 
Delta is not now, nor has it ever been, and nor will it ever be, anywhere near as strong in Japan as the market's two dominant players, the hometown carriers JAL and ANA.  NRT is no longer a viable "hub" for Delta - as evidenced by the fact that it has been steadily dismantled and its former traffic flows in large part shifted to SEA.  Delta was always in a perpetually weaker third place (at best) position, and that was not sustainable.  Many of us - not just me - identified this reality literally years ago.
 
Now, those unable to accept reality can continue trying to move the goalposts and constantly redefining what "winning" is, but it nonetheless still doesn't change the reality.  AA and United have both also reduced capacity in Japan because they (1) were responding to broader economic and demographic trends in the market, and - critically - (2) had excellent local partners with whom to form JVs, giving them access to extensive (or at least far more extensive than anything Delta could ever sustain) beyond-NRT networks at effectively zero cost.  At the same time, United leveraged its exceptional U.S. gateways to develop by far the most extensive and comprehensive network of nonstop flights overflying Japan to link U.S. megahubs with the principal cities of Northeast Asia.  AA, in the span of just a few years, has similarly developed what is now an extremely impressive stable of nonstop connections from its U.S. gateways to those same cities - and has, by and large, closed the network gap with Delta in the nonstop U.S.-Asia market, and, by and large, closed the network gap with Delta in the beyond-NRT-Asia market through the JAL JV.
 
Once again, bottom line: like with the rest of the world, Delta today has little competitive advantage - on a network basis - in the U.S.-Asia market compared to AA, and essentially none at all compared to United.  And building a line hangar to do overnight work on 757s going to GUM isn't going to change that.

 

[WorldTraveler]

E: None of the above.

 
the answer is D.

FL/WN has cut its capacity in ATL by 34% over the past 5 years.

Their local market share is basically flat.

 

False.  I'm not saying Delta "would" lose in Japan.  I'm saying they already have.

just stop there.

you are wrong there and you are wrong in every sentence after.

there is ABSOLUTELY NO factual basis for any of the statements you have made.

NONE.

put your data on the table.

all you have written is biased and uninformed drivel.

DL IS the largest single carrier from Japan to the US.

there is absolutely no disputing that.

AA continues to lose hundreds of millions of dollars operating its expanded network of flights to Asia.
congratulations on the expansion. the losses continue.

 

[commavia]

"No factual basis" besides the fact that Delta itself just told us - literally hours ago - that it continues to remove capacity from Japan and "recalibrate" NRT, including eliminating more than half of the beyond-NRT Asia "hub" flying in the last 5-6 years?  No, there are facts.  There are just some who refuse to accept them.
 
As for AA "los[ing] hundreds of millions" - yeah, AA is subsidizing losses in Asia, but of course still expects to make hefty profits this year, with analysts projecting an operating margin of perhaps near 20% in 2015 (higher, it should be noted, than Delta's target).  This shouldn't be a new concept - Delta has no doubt lost "hundreds of millions" in NYC for years as it - again, literally hours ago - told us that 2014 was the first time NYC was profitable on a fully-allocated basis.  But we all know ... that's different.  🙄

 

[WorldTraveler]

and yet DL has retained its share of the local Japan market and is profitable at NRT.

they also just said that too but you ignored it.

AA is NOT profitable flying the Pacific.

AA has not been profitable in NYC either. If you think they were and are and still cut capacity and left markets, then you need help.

AA lost a whole lot of money in NYC and gave up in many markets.

DL lost money in NYC and decided to stay to fight.

AA has taken the "we'll stay and fight" approach in NYC... they just have yet to show profits for their efforts.

be sure and let us know when they do. I'm keeping track of the number of years of losses so that the celebration can be even more sweet.

 

[eolesen]

The facts in the investor presentation sure do look like a bit of a retreat from Japan... Pulling capacity down, reducing flown destinations, and increasing overflights?

Sure they can stay dominant, but it sure does look like their lead may shrink just because of the capacity pullbacks.

Part the reason that DL kept its market share is because they didn't downgauge when both JL and NH were busy doing that five years ago. As they pull seats out of the market, it will be interesting how well they maintain that gap.

 

[WorldTraveler]

it may shrink, but only because you suggested it.

not because they said it or because there is ANY evidence anywhere to say that DL is not or cannot maintain its share of the local Japan market.

did you miss the part that replacing the 744s to/from Japan with 333s will reduce costs by over $100M per year.

Did it occur to you that DL intends to use its cost effectiveness - which is precisely why they chose the 333s - to be able to maintain its share?

and if DL was dumping capacity, then their average fares would show it.

DL generates higher average fares than AA or UA to/from Japan and also have larger share. JL and NH have higher average shares on much lower share levels. f

 

[topDawg]

it may shrink, but only because you suggested it.

not because they said it or because there is ANY evidence anywhere to say that DL is not or cannot maintain its share of the local Japan market.

did you miss the part that replacing the 744s to/from Japan with 333s will reduce costs by over $100M per year.

Did it occur to you that DL intends to use its cost effectiveness - which is precisely why they chose the 333s - to be able to maintain its share?

and if DL was dumping capacity, then their average fares would show it.

DL generates higher average fares than AA or UA to/from Japan and also have larger share. JL and NH have higher average shares on much lower share levels. f

Ever figure out how Delta is expanding what they do at the hangar vs what was done on the line or nah?

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

just stop there.

you are wrong there and you are wrong in every sentence after.

there is ABSOLUTELY NO factual basis for any of the statements you have made.

NONE.

put your data on the table.

all you have written is biased and uninformed drivel.

DL IS the largest single carrier from Japan to the US.

there is absolutely no disputing that.
 

 
If the reduction to just serving/connecting 5 points from NRT from the previous 12 is not an indication about a dying hub, then I don't know what is.  Combined with the buildup in SEA, I don't know how you can continue to argue that NRT is a viable/thriving hub for DL. 
While it may be true that DL is the largest US carrier to NRT, that's analogous to saying that DL is the largest US carrier to Germany outside of FRA. 

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

and yet DL has retained its share of the local Japan market and is profitable at NRT.

they also just said that too but you ignored it.

AA is NOT profitable flying the Pacific.

AA has not been profitable in NYC either. If you think they were and are and still cut capacity and left markets, then you need help.

AA lost a whole lot of money in NYC and gave up in many markets.

DL lost money in NYC and decided to stay to fight.

AA has taken the "we'll stay and fight" approach in NYC... they just have yet to show profits for their efforts.

be sure and let us know when they do. I'm keeping track of the number of years of losses so that the celebration can be even more sweet.

 
Why all the deflections to AA?
Why can't you stick to the topic at hand?
Why do you play this BS and refuse to answer question(s) in a simple, straight forward manner?
Are you that dense or just that combative?

 

[WorldTraveler]

If the reduction to just serving/connecting 5 points from NRT from the previous 12 is not an indication about a dying hub, then I don't know what is.  Combined with the buildup in SEA, I don't know how you can continue to argue that NRT is a viable/thriving hub for DL. 
While it may be true that DL is the largest US carrier to NRT, that's analogous to saying that DL is the largest US carrier to Germany outside of FRA.

take a look at what WN has done to ATL and it might, I repeat, might become apparent to you.

or it might not.


DL is the largest carrier from the US to Japan. Japan is still the largest market in Asia.

it is analogous to the US-UK.