Delta Death Watch

[WorldTraveler]

wow, you've got quite a history in this industry. Probably a bit more experienced that some of these jaundiced UA employees (you know the ones that will make substantially less than DL pilots even if DL gets all of the cuts they are seeking). Yes, those were the same bunch of whiners that were talking about shutting UA down. Oh yeah, they did bring their airline to a crawl and helped push their employer into bankruptcy. Maybe that's why AA has managed to snag so much of UA's business in Chicago. No other airline's employees have been quite that stupid. Wouldn't you agree, US veteran?


Luv,
you're too quiet. Tell us how DL pilots have rattled cages but never have been stupid enough to bring your airline to a crawl. One thing I can say about DL pilots is that they are a heck of alot smarter than their counterparts that get checks from a certain Chicago suburb.

 

[TechBoy]

You do realize that both UA and NW have lost significant amounts of money on its Asian route services this decade, don't you. If those routes are so valuable, then UA is very poorly managing them since they have yet to be profitable for the decade so far.

Really? Where is your evidence for that? I don't think that any airline breaks out the profitability of its regional services.

Oh, and how profitable has DL's vaunted European operation been in the past couple of years?

As an outsider, I find all this cheerleading for individual airlines somewhere between quaint and obnoxious. A little reasoned thought could go a long way on this forum. The reality is that both UA and DL are is fairly bad financial situations though neither has been anywhere near liquidation (absent a strike). It will be interesting to see if the transatlantic market will be able to absorb all of the extra capacity that CO, US and DL have been adding last year and this. I'm guessing that we're going to see some serious fare cutting this summer and lower profitability.

 

[WorldTraveler]

yeah you're right. It does get obnoxious which is why I've offered time and time again to knock off the UA bashing but the UA children don't want to give it a rest. So I'll finish the argument and I'll win.

And yes airlines do break out their revenue and cost performance for every region of the world. They are required to do so by the US DOT. Isn't the airline business grand? Every competitor knows exactly what kind of performance an airline has on every route down to the connections that support each leg.

I do not have the statistics of how much DL has lost per ASM on the Atlantic which could be compared with UA over the Pacific but DL has never lost as much during its worst period in any region as UA has in Asia during its worst period. Perhaps DL knows when to pull it down when it isn't working and when to build it up when there is opportunity. Oh, and UA has often been more unprofitable on their domestic system than DL has.... so much for all of the overcapacity DL has in the domestic marketplace.

Quick someone call Cosmo. He's the only one who cheers for UA who could even understand the issues involved here let alone come up with a coherent post. And he can't possibly defend the track record I've laid out here.

Your comment about all of the additional capacity over the Atlantic is obviously misguided by a lack of knowledge. DL is adding most of its service to cities where it is already the dominant carrier, meaning it has a high likelihood of retaining the customer base and being able to retain a revenue premium (why market share dominance is important in the airline industry) or to cities which do not even have US carrier service such as Budapest and Kiev (which UA tried to block but which the DOT handedly denied) and of course the S. Africa service previously mentioned.

 

[magsau]

WT,

I will tell you why UAL does not serve as many cities in Europe as DL. What UAL lacks in cities it makes up in frequency to the LHR/FRA. Both considered the center of the European universe. We did have tons of service to money losing cities. We flew full airplanes to MXP and DUS but could not generate revenue. If DL can do it with one flight a day to all of those cities then good on them. However, LHR slots and vast service from ORD, IAD blanket LHR. Through in JFK,LAX,SFO and you can get on a UAL jet and be one stop from LHR to HKG. Do it on a DL jet and let me know how it works for ya!

I am not here to debate the UAL route structure with you. But if you insist big guy let's throw it down. CVG is a weak sister hub. You say giving up DFW was brilliant. It is more of a getting your buttocks handed to you and calling that a victory. Keep dreaming. AA took you to town in DFW. DL is slowly becoming a one hub pony and it better be able to do something or it will be a piece in someones puzzel versus the other way around.

 

[TechBoy]

And yes airlines do break out their revenue and cost performance for every region of the world. They are required to do so by the US DOT. Isn't the airline business grand? Every competitor knows exactly what kind of performance an airline has on every route down to the connections that support each leg.

I do not have the statistics of how much DL has lost per ASM on the Atlantic which could be compared with UA over the Pacific but DL has never lost as much during its worst period in any region as UA has in Asia during its worst period. Perhaps DL knows when to pull it down when it isn't working and when to build it up when there is opportunity. Oh, and UA has often been more unprofitable on their domestic system than DL has.... so much for all of the overcapacity DL has in the domestic marketplace.
...
Your comment about all of the additional capacity over the Atlantic is obviously misguided by a lack of knowledge. DL is adding most of its service to cities where it is already the dominant carrier, meaning it has a high likelihood of retaining the customer base and being able to retain a revenue premium

So then you do or you don't have the data? Since the DOT data only include the revenue and not the costs, I still don't see how you know. Given DL's recent enormous operating losses, it is difficult to see how any of these regions are profitable. Time to take off the rose colored glasses.

As for being "misguided by a lack of knowledge," . . . whatever. I suppose it is better than being misguided by blind loyalty.

As for the new Atlantic capacity, I have no doubt that DL will dominate the JFK-Budapest direct market, but that is only one factor in determining profitability. Since the bulk of transatlantic pax connect at least once, all of the new capacity increases the overall supply of seats. Perhaps demand will keep up with it, perhaps not. I'm not saying that DL is making a mistake -- I'm just saying that the overall increase in capacity will depress yields for all. (And since DL is a high cost carrier at the moment, I would think that would hurt them the most.) But I suspect that DL will lose less money flying 767s JFK-BUD than ATL-MCO.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

World Traveler,

YOU show me "one time" that I said I wish DL to "FAIL" as a company, JUST ONE TIME !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ALL I keep saying, is DL will not get $325M out of DALPA.

AT LEAST "NOW", I've got you FINALLY to admit that there may be a "WIN-WIN" situation for both sides.

Congratulations, you've now entered the "GREY ZONE"

If the FEDS grant pension relief, then DL will NOT be able to use DALPA's DB plan, as "leverage" over their heads, WHICH in turn will make it even HARDER for DL to "wrest" the $325M out of DALPA

DL PILOTS SHOULD "NOT" BE MADE TO TAKE A "DOUBLE $$$ HIT" BECAUSE OF THE "STUPIDITY" OF LEO MULLIN !!!!!!!!!!!!!

NH/BB's

 

[Deleted by Moderator]

Delta is "the biggest loser" right now and if this strike happens they'll be gone. Take that to the bank WT.

Don't forget that United has the best route structure in the world and all the nay sayers expected it to be dismantled during bankruptcy but alas UAL had different plans and kept it all together.

Good luck with your airline and I hope they can possibly crawl out of the hole they are living in now.

 

[Vikedog64]

As a US employee,I dont usually post on the other airlines forums, but I thought Id throw my two cents in here.
I have to agree with a previous poster in that I think a 12th hour deal will occur between the company and ALPA. Nor do I think the city of Atlanta will allow DL to fail.
Last year at this time everyone was writing US Airways off. Well look at US now!
To all my friends at DL, keep your chins up!! You are a great group of people and you guys are going to come through this and thrive. Best of luck to each and every one of you!

Thanks for the kind words. On this board we all need them once in a while. It would be nice if we all realized that the difference between being solvent or not is very minimal.

 

[WorldTraveler]

deleted,
you're more dense than NHBB. Even he now realizes with my nudgings that there could be a win-win situation.

And, no you haven't wished death on DL, NHBB, but you have argued loud and long for the pilots to strike. I can show you that - and you didn't say there would be a win-win situation. Federal pension relief will not necessarily save the pilot pension plan. It is voluntary. It might save your AA pension (and I hope it does) but it doesn't require any airline to participate.

back to you, Deleted.
UA used to have the best route system in the world but they should since they have bought all of Pan Am's international routes except for non-London transatlantic. The reality is that UA is not the dominant airline to London but AA is. UA isn't the dominant airline to Latin America despite buying PA's assets - they are DEAD LAST behind one incumbent by purchase and two non-incumbents that have built their route system on their own. UA dominates one region of the world and that is Asia. That is the only thing from a network perspective that UA has done right - but still AA has managed to add routes to Tokyo in all of UA's top markets except for Hawaii which they would serve today if they could get the slots.

I do not believe DL is through with the western half of the US as evidence by its expansion of SLC. and there is alot more of the US west of SLC. as for DFW, DL recognized that it cannot be #1 or 2 in Texas, home to three other airlines so DL pulled DFW down. Lest you find that as weakness, you might look at General Electric - the world's most profitable company and the one that has kept the airline industry alive. Jack Welch said that if GE can't be #1 or 2 in a market they will exit it and GE has exited many businesses. But you can't keep exiting markets. You've got to fight to keep your markets as well as pick the battles that matter.

As for Germany, you do realize that DL offers more flights to more cities in Germany than UA does and they don't turn the traffic over to their European partner there?

And I think you just offended every European that doesn't live in Frankfurt and Munich, neither of which are even the capitol of Germany.

If calling DL a loser makes you feel better then go at it. The fact is that I have consistently posted facts which you can't counter.

I don't keep DOT data by my bedside. It is analyzed regularly and appears in Aviation Daily. I suggest you go to a library and read it if you want to compare. And, repeating, airlines to not report profit and loss by market but they do by region. When region data is combined with leg revenue data which is provided to the DOT, it is very possible to determine with a fair degree of confidence whether an airline is profitable or not on a specific route.

I have handed UA kudos for its route network very often in the past and I have criticized DL managements moves (particularly during the Mullin era), despite your inability to recognize it. But the reality is that CO right now serves more international destinations than UA and based on what DL management is saying, DL intends to overtake CO as having the most expansive international route system among US airlines - without serving Asia which DL has realized is a very difficult market to break into - and which is why DL will probably buy its Asian access from someone such as UA.

DL has fought to make its markets work and has persevered. The NE-Florida markets are a classic example. JetBlue came into the market 5 years or so ago and dumped capacity in the market left and right despite the fact that DL had along with US and EA served those markets profitably for years; DL even used L1011s on occassion (oh such OVERCAPACITY). The current bloodbath has claimed US as a player in most of the non-hub to Florida markets. DL has persisted despite losses. And what do you know but that B6 has now admitted they have dumped capacity into the market and they are not making money to Florida or to California despite having the lowest costs in the industry. Delta held the course and still is a viable player. And DL has maintained average fares comparable to AA's even though AA has 1st class cabins. DL is reducing the gauge of its flights to Florida and adding 1st class cabins; B6 will undoubtedly pull down capacity and there is a chance the markets will become profitable for everyone involved again. But DL didn't walk away from the market.

This whole spitting match began because I posted a lengthy, well thought out analysis of why DL will survive. No one ever did anything like that for UA, although Cosmo would be your most likely candidate if you'd like to commission him to do a work.

Now my offer still stands. Let's give it a break. Leave me alone to counter the naysayers that want to give DL up for dead and to encourage those DL employees that are facing their darkest hour but who will persevere and rebuild the world's greatest airline. You are free to counter my points but do it with facts instead of emotion and conjecture. And you are welcome to come up with similar arguments for UA if you'd like and I'll counter with facts.

okee dokee?

My wildcats have a date with Connecticut and I need to be there tonite win or lose.

 

[magsau]

The fact is that I have consistently posted facts which you can't counter.

Well let's see UA and AA have LHR. DL has to dump a bunch of low yielding 767's into all those european cities because of the UAL and AA dominace at the real european hubs. In hubs I mean for air travel. Again, can you get on a DL jet in Europe and be one stop to HKG and stay on DL metal? Nope. How about one stop from SYD to LHR?

I posted a lengthy, well thought out analysis

Really now did you? From the above FACTS it would appear that perhaps your not as well thought out as you think you are.

Leave me alone

Again, someone threw your books over the fence and you are upset. Better be careful or deleted will break you glasses and give you a atomic wedgie.

You are free to counter my points but do it with facts instead of emotion and conjecture.

You mean similar to the lack of emotion you like to use when talking about UAL?

My wildcats have a date with Connecticut and I need to be there tonite win or lose.

Well now we have the reall answer. KY is KY. Is the satellite dish still the state flower in KY?

Go UCONN
--------------------------------------
To the rest of the DL people. I really like DL and have always found you to be very accomodating when I would pass ride or jumpseat. I wish you all the best and hope you prosper. Unfortunately I think WT represents the new DL leadership that has not been the norm for the carrier. Best of luck fighting with people that can not get their arms around the issues and instead are unwilling to take a self evaluation of the problems at hand.

 

[Deleted by Moderator]

without serving Asia which DL has realized is a very difficult market to break into - and which is why DL will probably buy its Asian access from someone such as UA.

just another typical World Traveler bs piece. Too bad that UAL will more than likely be picking at the Delta bones when they can't manage to get financing. Has DL started any of those European routes or is it all just lip service? Anyone can fly to EVERYWHERE that Delta goes, it's just that those routes aren't profitable so the other's use more sense and allocate unprofitable to code share and concentrate on the $$$ makers.

Who's in bk now? Who said that you must be mismanaged and most likely will be unable to emerge from Ch 11 once in it? I realize this must just kill you that the proverbial shoe is on the other foot but you can't possibly believe we are going to stop considering how much you managed to bad mouth our airline while we were in the throws of bk ourselves. You made one point crystal clear and that it is almost impossible to emerge from BK in one piece, if ever. Good luck, you're going to need it.

As for the customer service, well all I can say is, they better start addressing that because their f/a's especially are HORRIBLE.

 

[magsau]

Too bad that UAL will more than likely be picking at the Delta bones when they can't manage to get financing.

Who said that you must be mismanaged and most likely will be unable to emerge from Ch 11 once in it? Good luck, you're going to need it.

As for the customer service, well all I can say is, they better start addressing that because their f/a's especially are HORRIBLE.

Deleted, I will agree with you that WT has put a whole shoe store in his mouth with the "No carrier has survived BK. UAL is going down" and various other high horse claims. I believe world may be suffering a bit of the UAL syndrome. AKA, The higher they are, the farther they fall. WT has no lack of self confidence or self importance. Something I don't think the true DL employees have. The DL people I know have always been good people.

What I don't agree with is the thoughts that we at UAL would be picking the bones of DL. For one we have not had enough time out of BK to be making claims about what we or will not be doing. As for UAL and DL, I personally see it as a good fit in the UAL route structure and think it will be the wild card in the UCT's of the future. Eliminate CVG and SLC, keep JFK,ATL,ORD,DEN,SFO and build back LAX and you would have a formidable carrier. The hitches to those thoughts are what to do with IAD if you have JFK and ATL? Do you build it, close it. No doubt any type of merger action with any of the legacy carriers will result in significant passenger overlap. By that I mean we all are competing for the same people from the same cities. Look to STL and what happened after AA bought TWA. DFW and ORD are too close to need another hub in the same geographical location. So the downside to building a mega carrier is that many many people will be let go and that could be you, me, WT and anyone else that happened to be affected by the acquisition.

In my mind the DALPA group and DL management will come to some type of agreement. The problem DL management now has is they are working with a labor group that has been traditionaly amicable. (Remember DL letting those pilots work at different locations in the company back in the 70's to prevent furlough from DL as an employer?) Those days are long gone. DL now has a disenfranchised pilot group that will not be willing to forgive and forget. While the other carriers are well accumstomed to dealing in advesarial relationships with labor, this new uncharted territory will foretale the future of DL.

And finally after the following result, something tells me we are going to get some interesting lambasting as WT takes out his frustrations over today's game:

http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegebasketbal..._20060319_KY@CT

 

[Bear96]

Gee, WT, I haven't checked up on the DL forum lately and I see you're still in full spin mode. (Better slow down there; I think you may have blown a gasket or two.) I see you've spent a lot of words on this thread explaining in painstaking detail how UA is so horribly run and what a terrible route structure it has, and how great DL is in comparison.

Now remind me again which of the two airlines is INSOLVENT and BANKRUPT?



Which is more important -- flying to as many European cities as possible (and destroying transatlantic yields while you're at it) or being SOLVENT?

 

[Fly]

UAUA $40.15

DALAQ .45


Now remind us again who is doing terribly.

 

[Skymess]

As a DL pilot this is strictly my opinion.
There will some kind of negotiated settlement in the 12th hour. If there is not, and the company attempts to impose its proposal, there will be a strike for the first time in DL's history. It would most likely lead to Ch 7. for DL. I do not think a court will grant an injunction, and even if they did, a mass exodus would occurr. Any exodus will cripple DL as it has chosen to staff at critical levels.
DL management needs a negotiated settlement. They need a piece of paper in hand with fixed costs they can bank on for the duration of the contract, most likely being the next four years. The creditors demand it.
WT has asserted that a gun is to ALPA's head. The truth is both sides have their finger on the trigger and both sides are capable of ending it all. Hope for the best, plan for the worst. That is somehthing any prudent DL employee should have been doing for the past four years.

I think you are correct and that there will be a negotiated settlement.

I don't think it will every come to a strike. I think when it comes down to it pilots will cave because it will come down to "real job with not very good pay", or "pilot job with way better than average, though less than before, pay".

Some of you guys will be hard core militant, " I'm taking them out of business for doing this to us" but most will crumble just at the thought of working 9 to 5 for peanuts.

It used to be interesting to watch what was going on in the industry. It's all become very mundane and predictable now. The company threatens, the workers are outraged, the union caves in, the workers beome enraged, and most of the workers vote yes. Next.

Let's put it this way, if UAL didn't go under than nobody is. UAL proved you could lose billions, rape and pillage employees, make the same stupid decisions but with lower costs thanks to aforementioned raping and pillaging, and then come back and have a riduculously inflated stock price with the same product that took you into bankruptcy.