Cordle of Airline Forecasts Says Delta Bid "Good Deal"

[Itestwell]

USA320Pilot
If this merger were to happen you would be lucky to hold f/o on 190...

How are you figuring this? Didn't HP/US take away ~15% of total mainline capacity, and no pilots were furloughed? Please show me some factual data, past or present, that shows that hundreds of mainline pilots will be immediately furloughed, downgraded, etc, with the removal of ~10% of combined capacity, much of which is slated to be RJ's......

 

[whlinder]

So is Cordle right this time?

I'm betting you won't answer that, because if you do it's going to be very hard to defend your "posture" in regards to what he has written in the past.

My point is that not only are you incredibly transparent when trying to "spin" the news to fit your views, you don't even exclude using quotes from an analyst who you previously trashed.

So, I ask again: do you agree with this "uninformed" (and I'll leave out quoting all the other things you called him in the past) analyst this time?

So which is it--does Cordle know what he's talking about or did you just post an article that's clearly untrue (if we take your previous comments about Cordle to heart)?

Spin away. This is like clubbing baby seals, but using the search function is slightly less effort......

*WHOMP* at 11......

 

[sharktooth]

Spoken like the "little man" who lacks courage that you are...there is NO due respect from you.

Do you remember your attempts to assist Pollock and Glanzer in scaring the US Air pilots?

Do you remember the continual stream of insults you throw out at the truly strong people like Teddy (and anyone else who would stand up to management) when little men such as you are much too frightened to do so?

Why would you, in a one sentence postscript, have the nerve to condemn someone who you feel insulted you, but in the second half of that same sentence, you are the one to throw insults out?

Do you remember how you ran and hid when BoeingBoy just wanted to know why you wrote the fearful letter to your private webboard begging ALPA to give away MORE than the company's ask?

Do you remember fleeing the room when a member of your so-called RC4 approached you to challenge some of your BS? I was there, I saw you run.

And you have the nerve to call someone else cowardly?

Do you understand why management loves you? Why Siegel was always seeking you out (we know about that lunch date), why Ashby put you on his propaganda e-mail list, and who knows what relationship you might have with Parker? Hint: you're not bright enough to see you're being used...you love getting attention from people much smarter than you. There is an entire chapter in Psychology 101 about people like you.

Lastly, will you ever understand why you get so little respect, not only on this board, but in the crewrooms in LGA, DCA, and PHL? Do you remember what happened there last month? Should I share that event with everyone here?

Some advice: you might consider putting down that book of quotes you have (it really doesn't make you look smart - one only need examine your grammar to determine your level of education) and try doing some research on Vladimir Lenin and Karl Marx. They had a name for people like you. And it wasn't complimentary.

Love – N – Kisses

Someone you know well.

That's gonna leave a mark.

 

[High Iron]

How are you figuring this? Didn't HP/US take away ~15% of total mainline capacity, and no pilots were furloughed? Please show me some factual data, past or present, that shows that hundreds of mainline pilots will be immediately furloughed, downgraded, etc, with the removal of ~10% of combined capacity, much of which is slated to be RJ's......

Maybe...maybe not. Think in terms of raw numbers to put "only 10 percent" in perspective. 15 pct of a smaller number vs 10 pct of a very large one. 15 percent of the combined HP/US is one thing. 10 percent of DL/HP/US is A LOT of capacity, and depending on which way the axe falls, could mean a lot of chopped heads.

Didn't Jim ( BoeingBoy ) crunch some theoretical numbers in a post some weeks back? 10 percent of the HP/US/DL represents something like 70 percent of the existing HP capacity, or something like over half half of US' present east of the Mississippi capacity. To say the devil is in the details is quite apt.

 

[Harry Callahan]

How are you figuring this? Didn't HP/US take away ~15% of total mainline capacity, and no pilots were furloughed? Please show me some factual data, past or present, that shows that hundreds of mainline pilots will be immediately furloughed, downgraded, etc, with the removal of ~10% of combined capacity, much of which is slated to be RJ's......

I thought everyone would see the joke .

 

[USA320Pilot]

700UW,

You continue to post the same drivel even though you have been corrected. With all dur respect, what does that say about your character?

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[Itestwell]

Maybe...maybe not. Think in terms of raw numbers to put "only 10 percent" in perspective. 15 pct of a smaller number vs 10 pct of a very large one. 15 percent of the combined HP/US is one thing. 10 percent of DL/HP/US is A LOT of capacity, and depending on which way the axe falls, could mean a lot of chopped heads.

Didn't Jim ( BoeingBoy ) crunch some theoretical numbers in a post some weeks back? 10 percent of the HP/US/DL represents something like 70 percent of the existing HP capacity, or something like over half half of US' present east of the Mississippi capacity. To say the devil is in the details is quite apt.

Hey, do not get me wrong, if there is concrete evidence that thousands and thousands of people will lose their jobs, then obviously I am not for it. Just wondering where people get these doomsday predictions, tho. Has DP said how much of the drawdown in capacity will come from the regionals? I know he has mentioned they will be involved in a big way. Looking forward to Boeing Boy's response.....

I thought everyone would see the joke .

Coach,

Glad I could entertain you! Not much goin on today, huh?

 

[michael707767]

How are you figuring this? Didn't HP/US take away ~15% of total mainline capacity, and no pilots were furloughed?

I would like to see an exact representation of how HP/US cut 15% of capacity in their merger. From what I have seen, some airplanes were parked but others flew more hours.

What were the combined ASMs of HP and US prior to the merger....and what are they today? My bet is, Parker is stretching the truth to say the HP/US merger actually cut out any capacity.

 

[Itestwell]

I would like to see an exact representation of how HP/US cut 15% of capacity in their merger. From what I have seen, some airplanes were parked but others flew more hours.

What were the combined ASMs of HP and US prior to the merger....and what are they today? My bet is, Parker is stretching the truth to say the HP/US merger actually cut out any capacity.

Really? SOME planes were parked? Stretching the truth? Hmmmm.....Before the merger, US East has about 50% of the planes it had when I was hired. Judging from the fact that for the FA's, 1988 is on reserve in CLT, 1983 in PIT, and 1994 in PHL, I would say that some capacity was lost somewhere since the merger happened. It ain't never been this bad.

 

[michael707767]

Really? SOME planes were parked? Stretching the truth? Hmmmm.....Before the merger, US East has about 50% of the planes it had when I was hired.

I am not talking about how much capacity USAir has lost from its peak, I am talking about how much capacity has come out of US and HP since the merger was announced. How many planes were parked as a result of the merger, not as a result of the bankruptcies US went through before the merger was announced. And what were the ASMs of US/HP combined before the merger, and what are they now.

 

[Itestwell]

I am not talking about how much capacity USAir has lost from its peak, I am talking about how much capacity has come out of US and HP since the merger was announced. How many planes were parked as a result of the merger, not as a result of the bankruptcies US went through before the merger was announced. And what were the ASMs of US/HP combined before the merger, and what are they now.

A good number of planes were removed from both east and west, but I cannot find the exact numbers. Anyone?

 

[BoeingBoy]

Exact numbers are impossible to come up with for one simple reason - US doesn't report the ASM's operated by contract carriers. Given that, here's some comparisons.

3Q05 vs 3Q06 Mainline ASM's (3Q05 was the last pre-merger quarter)

3Q05 US ASM's - 13.225 Billion
3Q05 HP ASM's - 07.875 Billion
3Q05 Total ASM's - 21.100 Billion

3Q06 US ASM's - 12.589 Billion
3Q06 HP ASM's - 07.567 Billion
3Q06 Total ASM's - 20.156 Billion (-4%)

For a closer look, here's the monthly mainline ASM's beginning with Sep 05 (the last month before the merger):
Monthly Mainline ASM's

09/05 - 6,415,467,000
10/05 - 6,476,882,000
11/05 - 6,097,845,000
12/05 - 6,288,837,000
01/06 - 6,193,686,000
02/06 - 5,501,570,000
03/06 - 6,534,770,000
04/06 - 6,304,584,000
05/06 - 6,625,307,000
06/06 - 6,704,703,000
07/06 - 6,966,463,000
08/06 - 6,890,254,000
09/06 - 6,299,102,000

As you can see, in only one month did ASM's drop 10% below the Sep 05 number - Feb 06 - and the next month they were above "pre-merger" levels. I believe HP was running as many as 5 paint lines around that time, and obviously winter is the maintenance period for the US widebodies, so does a one month drop constitute a "cut in capacity"?

Finally, the combined DL/US ASM's for December - 18,873,850,000 (including all DL express operators but not including US contract Express carriers). 10% of that would represent about 1/3 of all reported US Group capacity (6,752,129,000 ASM's), about 50% of US (East) mainline capacity (3,977,206,000 ASM's), or about 75% of HP mainline capacity (2,477,524 ASM's).

Jim

[Edit to add]

I forgot to add this for those that say most of the reduction will come from express. All the reported express capacity - DL's owned/contract plus US wholy-owned - doesn't equal 10% of the combined capacity mentioned above. Even "guesstimating" US contract express capacity, does anyone really think most of express will go away?

 

[Itestwell]

Jim,

Thanks for the info. Do you have any idea exactly how many planes both East and West shed as a result of the capacity reduction since 2005? I can't find that info. Thanks!

 

[michael707767]

As you can see, in only one month did ASM's drop 10% below the Sep 05 number - Feb 06 - and the next month they were above "pre-merger" levels. I believe HP was running as many as 5 paint lines around that time, and obviously winter is the maintenance period for the US widebodies, so does a one month drop constitute a "cut in capacity"?
Jim

Jim,
thanks for the info. Its about what I expected. US/HP did park some airplanes as a result of the merger, but they did not really cut capacity. So no furloughs. And, as you point out, they are already above pre merger ASMs, hence the need for furlough recalls.

I don't think this will be the case with a Delta/USAirways merger. Too much overlap, so something will in fact be cut. Which will likely mean layoffs on both sides, despite what Parker is saying. In fact, read the buildingabetter airline site. With regards to furloughs it says they don't anticipate furloughs. No where does it say there will not be furloughs.

 

[BoeingBoy]

I don't remember the numbers off the top of my head, but US returned the last aircraft to the leasors (under BK agreements) in Feb 06 - not counting the E-170's going to Republic which lasted till April or May 06 I think. Possibly as many as 25 737's and A320 series, but I'd have to find the BK agreements that have the return schedules.

As I recall, HP may have added a few airplanes post merger.

For Express, we lost the 25 E-170's that MDA flew, the Mesa capacity under East contracts, I think some Dash 8's, and are in the process of losing the CHQ E-145's. Of course, we gained 28 Republic E-170's, about 70 Air Wisky CRJ's (mostly after BK), PSA CRJ-700's (most/all during BK), and more Republic E175's than CHQ operated E145's (coming soon). My "gut feeling", since US doesn't report contract capacity, is that our total Express capacity has grown somewhat.

Jim