Branson Eyes U-s Airways......

[diogenes]

deltawatch,

sorta makes you feel deja vue'ey, in a 'X-files' kind of way, doesn't it?

 

[deltawatch]

Time will tell.....

http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/1893122131...626#reader-page

 

[mweiss]

Except that this time it's not about raping and pillaging. US Airways has some extremely valuable assets, which are worth more without the existing mess of years of patching together very different airlines with very different philosophies.

This is a chance to take those assets and run them with a clean slate.

Compare that to Lorenzo, who drained Eastern to fund Texas Inter...excuse me, "Continental," even though that airline had many of the same problems that US has. It did, however, buy them enough time for Bethune and his team to properly realign the company.

 

[deltawatch]

mweiss, what do you think? United gets a CLT hub, and some north south service. Virgin gets U's focus cities, BOS, LGA, DCA. How about PHL, I think most it will go to Virgin. Think NW and AA will try to slip in somewhere?

 

[BoredToDeath]

How many of you think it might be likely that Branson might buy one of, or all of the WO's and continue to provide feed for Airways while setting up the ground work for VirginUSA to takeoff next year?

Doing this would provide revenue stream for Branson while getting ready for the startup of his new airline.

I'm not saying this is what I want, just wondering how much of a possibility is this.

 

[deltawatch]

I don't think Branson wants props, maybe MDA. If Virgin takes over LGA, BOS, DCA and PHL I don't think he will be looking to feed U, the markets are mature enough that they don't need to be designed around hubs or connecting passengers. The local traffic to and from these airports is so large that you can afford to adopt much more efficient point-to-point operating procedures and only provide connections as a by-product.

 

[ISP]

mweiss, what do you think? United gets a CLT hub, and some north south service. Virgin gets U's focus cities, BOS, LGA, DCA. How about PHL, I think most it will go to Virgin. Think NW and AA will try to slip in somewhere?

deltawatch,

the "digging of the grave" that you are doing is wrong. Rest assured, Delta is in no better shape than US Airways is.

Maybe United will take the ATL hub for some north-south traffic, AA/NW & Virgin can grab whatever's left over... CVG, SLC. Of course, Virgin will get the focus cities of JFK, BOS, & DFW

 

[deltawatch]

Sorry ISP, don't let my id fool you, IM a U employee and I hope IM wrong. But I will never forget watching Eastern employees run around busting their A$!s in the late 80's trying to save a sinking ship when it was so obvious to outsiders what was going on. IM just trying to keep my eyes wide open…...

 

[ISP]

sorry, I just love to go after Delta at whatever opportunity possible! In all honesty though, I believe US has quite a head start on carriers like DL & NW in terms of cost savings. Cash balance is an issue, but DL will hemmorage even more by trying to fight B6 @ JFK and they will soon be in BKRPTCY as well.

 

[ktflyhome]

Delta watch: You are a US employee???? I guess I read somewhere lately, that you said you weren't.!!!!If so, Glad you are. I appreciate what you have to contribute..!!!!

 

[mweiss]

delta,

I don't know that UA would be in much of a position to go after CLT. Nor do I see why they'd want it, given their focus on IAD.

See, part of the problem is that pretty much everyone has a good hub for the northeast/Florida corridor. Adding another means you're taking away some of your connecting traffic subsidy of the O&D in your other hubs.

So AA would have to give up RDU for CLT (which they might want to do, given the better O&D). CO has no reason to cannibalize from EWR. Ditto DL with ATL. Maybe NW? I don't know enough about their MEM traffic to answer that one. Maybe HP? They'd probably enjoy having a better O&D market than they got from CMH. AS would be a fun thought, but I don't think they can expand that rapidly without some serious damage to the company.

Here's a thought...what about thinking way outside the box for a moment. F9? That'd give them east coast presence that they're currently lacking. It'd make more sense than FL or B6.

BTW, I think you're exactly right about the use of PHL, PIT, DCA, LGA, and BOS with Virgin USA. Maybe they'd want to try hubbing a bit at JFK for international feed through VS.

 

[BoredToDeath]

I don't think Branson wants props, maybe MDA. If Virgin takes over LGA, BOS, DCA and PHL I don't think he will be looking to feed U, the markets are mature enough that they don't need to be designed around hubs or connecting passengers. The local traffic to and from these airports is so large that you can afford to adopt much more efficient point-to-point operating procedures and only provide connections as a by-product.

deltawatch,

I don't think you followed me. I meant it as maybe the assets Branson wants would be "turnkey" operations, such as the WO or one of them. Of course he does'nt want props. PSA is getting rid of props in exchange for jets as we speak. PDT and ALG could easily be configured to do the same.

Feeding U? Ofcourse hes not gonna want to feed Airways for the long term, but short term? Maybe until all his ducks are in a row and Airways on its death bed. During this period with a purchased WO he'd already be making money with very little effort and would be able to turn them, almost overnight, into whatever kind of airline he wanted.

Think about it, how much easier would that make his job.

1. Purchase a WO or all three of them or just two of them. Maybe the two that are going through the merging process now.

2. Does'nt have to hire anyone and no need to find facilities. They already exist.

3. Take over the RJ orders since U might not be able to finance them after all.

4. Feed Airways while its still alive and make a profit.

5. All the while preparing to grow your already operating airline for a quick 2005 startup of an operation that will split off from feeding Airways and become a possible success.

When thinking about the time and money that could possibly be saved by going this route, it makes it seem that more realistic. What do think? Of course this is all mere speculation.

 

[deltawatch]

Good points BoredToDeath. Looks like U's transformation to a LCC will involve moving U's best assets to another company and ending up with some type of stake in the new company.

mweiss I think NW and UA would be interested in CLT. I think UA would rather IAD be a focus city and CLT be the answer to Delta’s ATL or maybe I should say Airtrans ATL since the LCC will rule the world in 3 years.

ps: Chip I noticed you were all over the board last night, you committed on just about every thread but this one, I saw you lurking here for a long time, but no commit. Chip you are a excellent employee fighting hard to save this company, and I enjoy reading your post, in fact if you didn't post this forum would go nowhere. What do you think about theses scenarios? I know they're not good for the employees, but when you start connecting the dots…….take a look back(CO,EA) it all adds up???

 

[deltawatch]

Here are some quotes in the news from Branson:

Branson, who will only have a 49 percent interest in the U.S. start-up because of foreign ownership restrictions, said Virgin was also talking to regional jet makers Embraer and Bombardier about an additional 20 planes for short-distance flights.

He said the Virgin Group was in talks with an unnamed U.S. airline about acquiring some slots in the United States and could be interested in some assets at U.S. Airways.

"If something happened there (with U.S. Airways) we might well find they become partners instead of us having equity partners. There also might be some equity partners but they (U.S. Airways) would become a major shareholder in the company," he said.

 

[mweiss]

deltawatch, the reason I don't think UA would give up the IAD hub for CLT is IAD makes a higher-margin TATL hub, given its proximity to DC.